Lockdown Virus will be Far Worse

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With some 2.6 billion people around the world in some kind of lockdown, we are conducting arguably the largest psychological experiment ever. This will result in a secondary epidemic of stress-related absenteeism in the latter half of 2020.

But we’re not setting up the second tent for psychological help and we will pay the price within three to six months after the end of this unprecedented lockdown, at a time when we will need all able bodies to help the world economy recover.

Unfortunately, we already have a good idea of its results. In late February 2020, right before European countries mandated various forms of lockdowns; The Lancet published a review of 24 studies documenting the psychological impact of mass quarantine. The findings offer a glimpse of what is brewing in hundreds of millions of households around the world.

People who are quarantined are very likely to develop a wide range of symptoms of psychological stress and disorder, including low mood, be suicidal, insomnia, stress, anxiety, anger, irritability, emotional exhaustion, depression and post-traumatic stress symptoms. Low mood and irritability specifically stand out as being very common, the study notes.

In cases where parents were quarantined with children, the mental health toll became even steeper. In one study, no less than 28% of quarantined parents warranted a diagnosis of trauma-related mental health disorder.

Among quarantined hospital staff, almost 10% reported high depressive symptoms up to three years after being quarantined. Another study reporting on the long-term effects of SARS quarantine among healthcare workers found a long-term risk for alcohol abuse, self-medication and long-lasting avoidance behaviour. This means that for years after being quarantined, some hospital workers still avoid being in close contact with patients by simply not showing up for work.

Reasons for stress abound in lockdown: there is a risk of infection, fear of becoming sick or of losing loved ones, as well as the prospect of financial hardship. All these, and many more, are present in this current pandemic.

Apart from the economic destruction, suicides, broken relationship, damage to education, media will be destroyed, murder and domestic violence will reach unprecedented levels.

We can already see a sharp increase in absenteeism in countries in lockdown. People are afraid to catch COVID-19 on the work floor and avoid work. We will see a second wave of this in three to six months. Just when we need to mobilise every to repair the economy, we can expect a sharp spike in absenteeism and burnout.

These are the people at high risk for long-term absenteeism from work due to illness and burnout. Even if they stay at work, research from Euro found reports a loss of productivity of 35% for these workers.

In general, we know at-risk groups for long-term mental health issues will be the healthcare workers who are on the frontline, young people under 30 and children, the elderly and those in precarious situations, for example, owing to mental illness, disability and poverty.

But while the insights are not new, the sheer scale of these lockdowns is. This time, ground zero is not a quarantined village or town or region; a third of the global population is dealing with these intense stressors. We need to act now to mitigate the toxic effects of this lockdown.

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MICHAEL WALSH is a worldwide journalist, broadcaster and author of 64 book titles with 36 years experience. Like other journalists of integrity, he no longer writes for corporate media, opting instead for true journalism.

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