Who Is The Mystery Detainee? SEDENA Says Don Carlos

There are currently no known photos purported to depict El Fresa that are presented by credible sources.

El Quintana Roo and Valor por Tamaulipas reported that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador would divulge new information about the Puerto Vallarta arrest during his morning press conference on Friday, January 21, 2022. However the event was not brought up during the press conference. 

Don Carlos

On Friday evening, the Attorney General’s Office officially released the identity of the detainee, which is Carlos ‘N’, alias “Don Carlos”. In the absence of additional information it remains unclear if this is a previously unknown CJNG member or if he has an established criminal history just under a different alias.

According to the official statement, Don Carlos worked directly under Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho”, the overall leader of the CJNG. The statement continues on and says that Don Carlos was in charge of securing weapons and armored vehicles for the CJNG in Puerto Vallarta and central Jalisco. 

It continues and says that Don Carlos is a regional leader within the CJNG who controls the remote mountain regions of Jalisco and he controls various logistics, such as methamphetamine and marijuana production, distribution, transportation and sales, as well as being involved in the training of new hitmen.

The Mexican Secretary of Defense said that Don Carlos was arrested following months of investigation that was conducted in conjunction with the National Intelligence Center (Centro Nacional de Inteligencia).

Preliminary Analysis

We know that a large amount of military personnel and equipment was used in the operation. According to the official press release, 150 Army (SEDENA) soldiers and 2 military helicopters were involved in the operation. 

In any military operation involving helicopters, the specific conditions of a potential landing zone are considered during the planning of an operation. Non-ideal conditions are a risk to the operation likelihood of success, as well as a risk to the safety of the soldiers involved. This risk level is often weighed against the potential benefit or perceived importance of the operation’s objective. 

In the Puerto Vallarta operation, the landing zone used by one of the military helicopters in order to exfiltrate the detainee was a small section of a golf course, which was located next to the property targeted by the raid. This landing zone, as seen in the video below, is non-ideal and relatively small. 

The military’s risk-assessment of this landing zone is likely also affected by the knowledge that CJNG has an established record of having both the logistical and the technological capabilities to destroy a military helicopter, as evidenced by the takedown of a Mexican Air Force Cougar EC725 by CJNG members on May 1, 2015, making the landing zone conditions an even higher level of risk. 

Taking into account the amount of personnel and equipment that we know was used in the operation, as well as the level of risk military commanders deemed acceptable within the operation, it stands to reason that the target of the raid was considered high priority.

Considering the lack of media coverage Carlos ‘N’, alias “Don Carlos” had prior to the Puerto Vallarta raid, there seem to be the following possibilities: 

1. Don Carlos was the intended target of the raid. Despite not being well known to the public, Don Carlos was a big player behind-the-scenes and he is actually an integral part of the CJNG organization. His capture was a major hit to the functioning of the CJNG.

2. Don Carlos was the intended target of the raid, but not for his significant role within the organization but instead because the military know that Don Carlos has information on something related to the CJNG that they considered to be highly valuable. 

3. Don Carlos was the intended target of the raid, he does not have a significant role within the CJNG however the ultimate objective of the raid was to have a large news story that visibly demonstrates the Mexican federal government is actively targeting members of organized crime. 

4. Don Carlos was the intended target of the raid, but the overall objective was to observe, through pre-established surveillance, how certain information flows within the CJNG in the immediate aftermath of the raid. By observing the communication within the CJNG in the aftermath, some highly valuable information was obtained, such as the current location of a real high value target. 

5. Don Carlos was not the intended target of the raid. The raid aimed to capture a higher-value target  (which is not limited to just Mencho, there are many other high ranking CJNG members to consider) however the targeted person escaped before the soldiers arrived.

6. Don Carlos was not the intended target of the raid. The raid aimed to capture a higher-value target however the information the military/FGR acted on was bad intelligence and the target was not recently in the area.

7. Don Carlos was not the intended target of the raid. Another person was captured during the raid however there were a series of behind-the-scenes negotiations between the CJNG and the government so that the detainee was secretly released and Don Carlos was given instead as the fall guy in order to satisfy the public’s interest.