Why economics is confoundingly more complex than biology, physics and maths – by an order of magnitude

Two of my recent FB comments:

Comment 1

ECONOMICS IS SO DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT IS ALMOST ENTIRELY ABOUT THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THINGS THAT ARE HIDDEN FROM SIGHT; INVISIBLE.

Since 99.99 per cent of economics is about things that are hidden from sight (the endless series of actions and interactions) it is literally impossible except for a highly trained person to understand what’s going on.

Economics is a discussion regarding these invisibles. Not for nothing did Adam Smith call the price system and the market an invisible hand.

In religion, too, people have failed to grasp the invisibility of God, so every religion has been forced to create visible artefacts/ temples/ mosques.

The question is how can one explain this to the ordinary person (including highly competent physicists) who are not used to looking at a vast series of actions/ interactions. In the physics lab scientists looks at a particular event, and then it is over. What happens further, and then further, etc. is converted into general laws of entropy.

In economics, however, any action (even the most modest) has a direct effect on the **entire** world economy. Its effects ricochet across the whole world, and not just in one generation: in multiple generations (like the effects of Indian socialism in driving out its best talent from India).

It is truly hard to get people to think about these hidden effects. The fact that amazingly brilliant people like Adam Smith, Bastiat and Hayek have been explaining this for hundreds of years but there is almost zero awareness of these hidden mechanisms and effects of economics action even today, suggests that that challenge to get the ordinary, untrained person to understand the economy is Herculean, close to impossible.

Yes, a little book project I am attempting could be a tiny drop in the ocean, but we need a widespread concerted effort to simplify the key elements of economics so every child can begin to see through the confounding fog of the price system, and stop railing against the only system that has taken mankind from a short, brutish life of misery, to health, wealth and abundance.

Comment 2

First imagine that 155 years after Darwin’s pathbreaking discoveries in biology, a vast majority of the people still believe in their religious mythologies about the origin of the world and of man.

Once we grasp the magnitude of this huge disconnect between basic knowledge and people’s beliefs, it becomes relatively less difficult to imagine why 240 years after Adam Smith’s pathbreaking discoveries regarding the economic system, and 25 years after the collapse of the murderous socialist Russian regime, a vast majority of the world still believes that socialism is good for them.

Biology is an absolutely TRIVIAL science – a mere kindergarten level science – compared with economics. I can honestly say (having been an outstanding student of biology), that it took me just about one month to understand the basics of biology, but around 20 years of (mostly sporadic, but some intense) study to begin to understand economics. Indeed, the vast majority of “trained” economists themselves have close to no understanding of the price system. They’ve learnt some tools, no doubt, but not developed any of the essential intuitions.

The amount of training and reflection needed to understand the economy is perhaps just too demanding for the human species. Till the end of their lives, even the best economists are nowhere close to fully understanding the system – and they gladly admit it.

If the common man finds it hard to understand elements of biology, imagine then how much harder it is for them to understand economics – the most confoundingly complex system of actions and interactions.

The IQ of the species would need to rise to a minimum of 120+ (compared with current brain development levels) in order for biology to become comprehensible to the ordinary people. And the IQ of humans may well need to rise to 150+ for economics to become comprehensible – with a lot of effort.

But here’s the problem: India has an average IQ of 85. The average Indian operates at the level of a moron.

This means it will only be purely by luck that India gets any good governance and economic policies.

One should definitely try (e.g. a simple book for children, SKC agenda), but let’s never be over optimistic about India’s future.

These things could well turn out to be like throwing pearls before swine.