Decoding India's 2024 Verdict

In a stunning turn of events, the Indian electorate has chosen the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to lead the country for the next five years, but with a twist—this mandate is not a direct endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The outcome, which defied nearly all exit polls, has raised eyebrows and ignited discussions among India watchers. These polls, it seems, were swayed by a mix of ground-level opposition traction and an underlying fear among pollsters of falling out of favor with the powerful leader.

This historic election can be understood by examining three key components: the events leading up to the vote, the reasons behind the waning appeal of the Modi brand, and the implications for Pakistan, as the India-Pakistan relationship teeters on the edge of a downward spiral.

The build-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections bore striking similarities to the Emergency era under former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Like Gandhi, Narendra Modi’s decade-long rule was characterized by an increasingly authoritarian approach that many critics argue eroded civil liberties and upended the social fabric of the nation. The period preceding the elections saw a relentless crackdown on opposition figures and a steady undermining of democratic institutions.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) executed a series of calculated moves to neutralize its political adversaries. Rahul Gandhi, the leading figure of the Congress Party, was expelled from parliament following a defamation conviction that many viewed as politically motivated. The arrests of two sitting Chief Ministers from the opposition on corruption charges, the expulsion of 140 MPs for protesting a security breach, and the controversial ousting of Mahua Moitra, a fierce Modi critic, all painted a picture of a government intent on stifling dissent.

Parallel to these actions was the BJP’s aggressive implementation of ‘Operation Lotus,’ a strategy aimed at toppling opposition-led state governments through defections and splits, often facilitated by state agencies. This operation was particularly notable in states like Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, where democratically elected governments were destabilized, fueling concerns about the erosion of democratic norms.

Adding to the drama was the decline of India’s once-vibrant free press. Over the past decade, the media landscape has been dominated by what the opposition derisively terms the ‘Godi’ media—a press corps that largely echoes the government’s narrative. Prominent journalists were either silenced or forced to take their work to alternative platforms like YouTube, leading some to label this election as a “YouTube election.”

Narendra Modi’s political success has been built on a carefully crafted image—one that portrays him as the savior of a Hindu nation and a champion of economic growth. This persona has been reinforced by religious nationalism, with the construction of the Ram Temple, the reopening of worship at Gyanvapi, and talks of a new temple complex at Mathura, all serving to bolster his appeal among Hindu voters.

However, by 2024, cracks had begun to appear in this façade. The over-reliance on religious symbolism and the divisive rhetoric that had once propelled Modi to power started to wear thin with a populace grappling with economic challenges, rising unemployment, and the persistence of social inequalities. The promise of “Achhe Din” (better days) remained unfulfilled for many, and the opposition’s united front, under the banner of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), managed to tap into this growing discontent.

The opposition’s ability to present a cohesive narrative—one centered on the protection of the Constitution and the restoration of democratic values—resonated with voters who were increasingly wary of Modi’s authoritarian streak. The NDA’s victory, while still a testament to the BJP’s organizational prowess, reflected a broader desire for change, a shift away from the Modi-centric governance model that had dominated Indian politics for a decade.

The election results also carry significant implications for Pakistan, as the India-Pakistan relationship remains fraught with tension. The diminished Modi brand presents both challenges and opportunities for Islamabad. On one hand, a potentially less assertive Indian leadership could open the door for renewed dialogue, offering a chance to address long-standing issues such as Kashmir and cross-border terrorism.

On the other hand, the underlying nationalist sentiment that has been a hallmark of Modi’s tenure is unlikely to dissipate overnight. The NDA’s victory, even without a strong Modi mandate, suggests that the broader ideological currents favoring a hardline stance against Pakistan remain influential.

For Pakistan, the path forward will require a delicate balance—engaging with a new Indian leadership while remaining vigilant against the potential resurgence of nationalist rhetoric. The India-Pakistan relationship, historically unstable, is at a critical juncture. How Pakistan navigates this post-Modi landscape will be crucial in determining whether the bilateral relationship can be stabilized or whether it will continue its perilous descent.