An attack on Taiwan by China means war on the Korean Peninsula
China hawk says Beijing could attack Taiwan by 2024, bringing ‘war to the West’
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Prominent China hawk Kyle Bass told CNBC on Tuesday that he believes Chinese President Xi Jinping is determined to “bring war to the West,” with an invasion of Taiwan likely before the end of 2024.
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The founder and chief investment officer at Hayman Capital Management said that Xi, much like Russian President Vladimir Putin, is unconcerned with the economic fallout of such an attack.
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“If you listen to what [Xi] says, I believe he will end up acquiring, reacquiring Taiwan by force by the end of next year,” Bass told “Street Signs.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/china-hawk-says-beijing-to-bring-war-to-the-west-take-taiwan.html
WHO IS KYLE BASS?
Kyle Bass is a prominent hedge fund manager known for his views on the financial markets and global economic developments. He is the founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, a Dallas-based hedge fund. Bass made significant profits during the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the US by betting against subprime mortgages.
Bass has been vocal about his concerns regarding the financial stability of several nations, including Japan and China. He has made several predictions about the potential economic collapse of these countries based on their debt levels and other macroeconomic factors. Particularly concerning China, Bass has shared his concerns about China’s banking system, its levels of debt, and the overall health of its economy.
China Prepares for War: A Timeline
Hudson Institute
This is worth a listen. I’ve taken screenshots of the presentation in the order they were presented by Kyle Bass. He goes over how China is preparing for sanctions, food shortages, power shortages, bunkers for their citizens, the legalities of war, banking, gold, etc.
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In regards to the months, the Naval War College Review had different months for the two monsoon seasons of Taiwan. Either way, there is a window, although I would agree with the Naval War College over Bass’s months, which isn’t a big issue. Bass makes a compelling presentation.
HOW CHINA MIGHT INVADE TAIWAN.
Piers M. Wood
Charles D. Ferguson
Naval War College Review
Volume 54
Number 4 Autumn
Article 5
“The Chinese would also have to contend with two monsoon seasons, from August to September and from November to April; it would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October. Still, such impediments did not thwart U.S. amphibious forces at Inchon during the Korean War; nor did coral reefs and an extremely low tide prevent the seizure of Tarawa in World War II.”
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China will need 3 carrier battle groups to invade Taiwan by 2027: Admiral
Taiwanese military should enhance self-defense before 2027 to ‘make Xi modify or postpone timeline’
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5007469
“TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Admiral Huang Shu-kuang (黃曙光), chief of the general staff and convener of the Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program, believes that China will need at least three carrier battle groups to be capable of launching an invasion of Taiwan.
Huang was cited by CNA as saying that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will need at least three carrier battle groups deployed to the northeast, southeast, and southwest of Taiwan to be in a position to invade the country. He added that there must also be a decline in U.S. military strength, and although he predicted that China will be able to invade Taiwan by 2027, “whether it attacks or not” will depend on other factors.
He analyzed that based on the scope of past PLA military exercises, the PLA is preparing three carrier battle groups. The first would be deployed in the southeastern waters of Taiwan to contain Guam, the second would be deployed in the northeastern waters to restrain U.S. and Japanese forces, and the third would be deployed in the southwest waters of Taiwan.
Based on this operational assessment, Huang said that he agrees with the 2027 timeline proposed by former Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Philip Davidson. He assessed that China will need to have at least three carrier battle groups by then, and it will also depend on U.S. combat capabilities.
Huang added that based on the timeline of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s (習近平) third term, “China’s military build-up speed, economic growth, and other internal factors will all be subject to continuous review.” He said that the Taiwanese military should significantly enhance its self-defense preparations before 2027, in order to “make him (Xi) modify or postpone the timeline.”
The PLAN already has two carrier battle groups led by the Liaoning and the Shandong. The Fujian, China’s first fully domestically designed aircraft carrier, was launched in June 2022 but is not yet fully operational.”
China’s ‘Most Advanced’ Aircraft Carrier – Fujian – Gets Ready For Sea Trials; Potential Deployment Expected In 2025
The latest images surfacing on the Chinese microblogging site Weibo strongly indicate that China’s Fujian aircraft carrier is gearing up for its maiden sea trials. This suggests the warship remains on course for its planned deployment in the Chinese navy in 2025.
“He mentioned that it is probable that the process will involve six months of sea trials, followed by an additional year of testing specific equipment and weapon systems.”
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/chinas-most-advanced-aircraft-carrier-fujian-gets-ready-for/
Massive Threat: China’s Fast-New Aircraft Carrier Fleet .. “Fujian” 3rd Carrier Hits “Sea Trials”
China is planning a massive 85,000 ton, 40-plus aircraft-strong high-tech carrier
“China’s third aircraft carrier, called the Fujian is now prepping for “sea trials” and operational service, a development which likely generates no shortage of concern at the Pentagon given the pace at which the PRC is revving up shipbuilding and accelerating fleet expansion. China has in recent months and years been adding new shipyards and generating new classes of Type 075 amphibs. Type 055 quasi-stealthy new destroyers and of course new aircraft carriers as well.”
Taiwan Eyes New Chinese Aircraft Carrier as Major Threat
https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-eyes-new-chinese-aircraft-carrier-as-major-threat/7271438.html
September 16, 2023 6:20 PM
TAIPEI, TAIWAN —
“A new Taiwanese military assessment highlights the threat posed to the self-governing island by China’s third and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which is expected to enter service after completing sea trials sometime next year.”
“The report, released this week, says the Chinese-designed Fujian incorporates major technological advances over the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s two existing carriers, both based on a Russian design.
Most significantly, aircraft taking off from the ship will be boosted into flight with three electromagnetic catapult devices, which are more effective than the steam catapult devices used on other carriers. To date, electromagnetic catapults are used only by the United States on its most advanced Gerald R. Ford-class carriers.
The added power of the catapults allows for heavier aircraft and shorter runways, which combined with other design improvements will allow the Fujian to carry as many as 40 jet fighters, according to Taiwan’s report. China’s two previous carriers can handle 18 and 32 fighters respectively.
“This is a major maritime threat that we must actively deal with in the future,” said Major General Huang Wen-Chi, the assistant deputy chief with the General Staff for Intelligence of Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, in releasing the report this week.
The report says the Fujian will enhance China’s ability to seal off the Taiwan Strait, potentially delaying or preventing the U.S. military from entering the theater to help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.”
The Guardian
Taiwan foreign minister warns of conflict with China in 2027
Taiwan’s foreign minister has said he is preparing for the possibility of a conflict with China in 2027.
Speaking on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, Joseph Wu said: “We are taking the Chinese military threat very seriously … I think 2027 is the year that we need to be serious about.”
The Guardian
US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions
A leaked memo from a US four-star general saying his “gut” told him the US would be at war with China in 2025 has prompted warnings about the danger of “undisciplined” predictions of a Taiwan strait conflict.
The memo, by the head of the US Air Mobility Command (AMC), Gen Mike Minihan, was the latest prediction of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, which have ranged from 2022 to 2049. It has triggered a debate about US readiness, accusations of warmongering, and concerns about desensitising people to the real risk of invasion.
China’s government claims Taiwan as a province and its authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, is set on what he terms ”reunification”, by force if necessary. It is a prospect Taiwan’s government and people vehemently reject. Around this impasse, tensions are escalating. Beijing’s military is growing bigger and is increasing its coercive targeting and harassment of Taiwan.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” Minihan wrote. “Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
Back in 2021, an article came out stating that China will be ready to attack Taiwan as soon as 2025.
“China will be ready to mount a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2025, the island’s defence minister has said, describing current tensions as the worst in 40 years.”
CARNEGIE
ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
How We Would Know When China Is Preparing To Invade Taiwan
“As tensions between China, Taiwan, and the United States have increased over the past year, numerous articles and pundits have posited that war could come sooner rather than later. These speculations were prompted by comments from senior U.S. military officers that Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to invade the island by 2027, although the basis for this claim is not given. A new report claims some in the U.S. intelligence community now assess that China could attack as soon as 2024 (presumably around Taiwan’s January 2024 elections).”
How Taiwan Could STOP a Chinese Invasion
The War Simulation
A report came out in early January of 2023 of this year, stating that the U.S. would be able to defeat China with the help of Japan, but the costs would be extremely high.
Report Launch―The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan
https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
“This CSIS project designed a wargame to model a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026 and ran it 24 times in a variety of scenarios. Although Taiwan survived as an autonomous entity in most scenarios, losses to the United States, Taiwan, and Japan were heavy.”
War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
“CSIS ran this war game 24 times to answer two fundamental questions: would the invasion succeed and at what cost?
The likely answers to those two questions are no and enormous, the CSIS report said.
“The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years,” the report said. In most scenarios, the US Navy lost two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface combatants. Approximately 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, nearly half of what the US lost in two decades of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.
“China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war,” it said. The report estimated China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.”
The problem that I have with this report is, it doesn’t take into account that North Korea, whom has a mutual defense agreement with China, would intervene if the U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defense. I don’t see China letting the U.S. spoil their plans of trying to take Taiwan. It’s very possible that there will be a restart of the Korean War, which technically isn’t over.
Reuters:
Home to 28,000 U.S. troops, South Korea unlikely to avoid a Taiwan conflict
“South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told CNN in an interview aired on Sunday that his country was keen to work with the United States to “expand freedom”, but that in a conflict over Taiwan, North Korea would be more likely to stage a provocation and that the alliance should focus on that first.
North Korea has a mutual defence treaty with China and military analysts suggest it could coordinate with Beijing or take advantage of a crisis to pursue its own military goals.”
War in the Taiwan Strait may mean war for North, South Korea
https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_international/1077710.html
January 31, 2023
“If the US deploys USFK or other military forces to South Korea to send into a conflict in Taiwan, China is very likely to retaliate. In particular, a Chinese retaliatory strike against a USFK base or Jeju Naval Base would amount to an attack on South Korean territory, raising the risk of things escalating into an armed clash between South Korea and China.
The matter isn’t just restricted to South Korea either. North Korea has indicated its full support for China’s position on the Taiwan issue, and its Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with China includes provisions that would automatically trigger its involvement.”
South Korea Will Stay Out of a Taiwan Strait War
https://thediplomat.com/2023/03/south-korea-will-stay-out-of-a-taiwan-strait-war/
“An attempt by China to invade Taiwan would probably include missile strikes against bases in South Korea, especially the U.S. Air Force base in Osan. Beijing would presumably leave ROK Navy bases alone unless South Korean warships appeared to be moving to attack Chinese forces.”
In a Taiwan war, Seoul’s problem won’t be Pyongyang
https://asiatimes.com/2023/08/in-a-taiwan-war-seouls-problem-wont-be-pyongyang/
“South Koreans are worried about the three-body problem. Not the astrophysical phenomenon featured in the popular science fiction novel by Liu Cixin; rather, it’s the geopolitical phenomenon that links China, Taiwan and North Korea. Because of the relationships among these three governments, a war in the Taiwan Strait could cause a military conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
If the USA intervened to defend Taiwan from an attempted Chinese takeover, Pyongyang, possibly at Beijing’s request, might carry out aggression against the Republic of Korea (ROK) at a time when South Koreans feel relatively vulnerable because of US preoccupation with the battle some 1,500 kilometers to the south.”
“From President Yoon Suk Yeol to analysts in both academic and government, South Koreans have expressed anxiety about an opportunistic North Korean attack.”
THE DANGERS OF NORTH KOREA
North Korea is in possession of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. It’s got Seoul and the surrounding area in its cross hairs with the enormous amount of artillery guns aimed at Seoul, Paju, and areas close to the border. It’s also has tunnels, which four were discovered and there are rumors of more tunnels.
Is North Korea still digging tunnels to the South?
October 2, 2014
https://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/02/world/asia/north-korea-dmz-tunnels/index.html
“Four tunnels from the North have been found in all, although none since 1990. The South Korean Defense Ministry still officially looks for them as it believes there may be 20 in all, but the budget is small and tunnel hunters believe it is merely a token effort. North Korea has said the tunnels were not for invasion, but part of its mining industry.
While the Defense Ministry believes there may be up to several tunnels dug under the Demilitarized Zone, it is convinced that none would reach as far as Seoul. It believes that Pyongyang would not be able to dig more than 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the DMZ – the heavily fortified border – because of the Imjin River. Seoul’s northwestern boundary is about 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the DMZ.
“To dig tunnels tens of kilometers, it must be angled properly,” says Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok. “There is a huge amount of groundwater in the Korean Peninsula, so water and soil have to be removed consistently. South Korea and the U.S. have always taken aerial photographs, and we found no evidence of this.”
I ASKED CHATGPT FOR A SUMMARY OF THE TUNNELS:
**Tunnels Dug by North Korea in South Korea**
Over the years, South Korea has discovered several tunnels dug by North Korea beneath the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides the two Koreas. The known tunnels were discovered between the 1970s and the early 1990s. As of my last update in September 2021, four major tunnels have been identified:
1. **The First Tunnel**: Discovered in November 1974, this tunnel is located about 65 km north of Seoul. The tunnel stretches over 3.5 km and is around 2 m high and 2 m wide. It is estimated that up to 30,000 troops could be moved through this tunnel per hour.
2. **The Second Tunnel**: Found in March 1975, this tunnel lies around 13 km north of Cheorwon in Gangwon Province. This tunnel is slightly bigger, measuring approximately 2 m high and 2 m wide. Like the first, it could also move up to 30,000 troops per hour.
3. **The Third Tunnel**: Unearthed in October 1978, this tunnel is situated about 52 km north of Seoul. The tunnel’s dimensions are approximately 2 m in height and 2 m in width. It’s estimated that this tunnel could facilitate the movement of 30,000 troops per hour as well.
4. **The Fourth Tunnel**: This was identified in March 1990, located in a region 26 km north of Yanggu in Gangwon Province. The dimensions are roughly the same as the earlier tunnels, and its capacity for troop movement is also approximately 30,000 per hour.
**Possibility of More Tunnels and Associated Dangers**:
It’s widely believed, both among military officials and researchers, that there might be more undiscovered tunnels beneath the DMZ. North Korea’s intentions behind these tunnels seem clear: to bypass the heavy fortifications at the DMZ and launch surprise attacks, or to quickly move troops into the South in the event of a conflict.
Dangers associated with undiscovered tunnels:
1. **Surprise Attacks**: The primary danger is the potential for North Korea to use these tunnels for sudden incursions into South Korean territory.
2. **Strategic Vulnerability**: Undiscovered tunnels could create a strategic vulnerability for South Korea. If North Korea can move troops quickly beneath the DMZ without detection, it gives them a significant advantage in any potential conflict.
3. **Political Tensions**: Every time a tunnel is discovered, it heightens tensions between the two nations, especially if the tunnel is perceived as an active threat.
4. **Civilian Risk**: Some tunnels might open up in civilian areas, potentially putting non-combatants at immediate risk in case of hostilities.
The discovery of these tunnels underscores the ongoing tensions and mistrust between the two Koreas, despite intermittent efforts at diplomacy and peace talks. It remains essential for South Korea to continue its surveillance and defensive efforts along the DMZ to identify and neutralize any such clandestine activities.
I’ve personally been in the third tunnel and there is a modern Gatling Gun pointed at the door, which is monitored remotely.
North Korea Has a Secret Weapon: Underground Air Bases
June 1, 2018
https://warriormaven.com/air/north-korea-has-a-secret-weapon-underground-air-bases
“It’s difficult to determine how many tunnels exist. One report says that Kim Il-sung, the founder of the North Korean state and Kim Jong-un’s grandfather, ordered [7] each of the ten frontline combat divisions to dig two tunnels. If completed, that would theoretically mean another dozen or so tunnels remain undiscovered. A former South Korean general, Han Sung-chu, claims there are at least eighty-four tunnels [8]—some reaching as far as downtown Seoul. The South Korean government does not believe Han’s numbers—nor the claimed ability to reach Seoul—are credible. A forty-mile tunnel would reportedly generate a seven-hundred-thousand-ton debris pile[8], which has not been picked up by satellite. Despite the warnings, the last major tunnel was discovered in 1990 and South Korea seems to believe that the tunneling danger has passed.”
“If it has passed, it may be because North Korea has decided to tunnel in different ways. The North Korean People’s Liberation Army Air Force is believed to have three different underground air bases [9] at Wonsan, Jangjin and Onchun. The underground base at Wonsan reportedly includes a runway 5,900 feet long and ninety feet wide that passes through a mountain [10]. According to a defector, during wartime NK PLAAF aircraft, including MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack aircraft, would take off from conventional air bases but return to underground air bases. This is plausible, as one would expect North Korean air bases to be quickly destroyed during wartime.
Another underground development is a series of troop bunkers near the DMZ. A North Korean defector disclosed that, starting in 2004, North Korea began building bunkers [11] capable of concealing between 1,500 and two thousand fully armed combat troops near the border. At least eight hundred bunkers were built, not including decoys, meant to conceal units such as light-infantry brigades and keep them rested until the start of an invasion.”
“Other underground facilities are believed to have been constructed to shelter the North’s leadership. According to a South Korean military journal, the United States believes [12] there are between six thousand and eight thousand such shelters scattered across the country. This information was reportedly gathered from defectors in order to hunt down regime members in the event of war or government collapse.”
Attack from Underground: North Korea Has a Secret Tunnel Network Ready for the Next War
October 1, 2019
“According to a South Korean defense white paper, Kim Il-sung had ordered the tunnel building campaign in a meeting on September 25, 1971, proclaiming somewhat optimistically, “One tunnel can be more powerful and effective than ten atomic bombs put together and the tunnels are the most ideal means of penetrating the South’s fortified front line.” The tunnel-building campaign was supposed to be completed by 1975.”
“A Korean defense white paper from 1990 claims, “It is almost impossible to detect a two-meter-wide tunnel some hundreds of meters under the ground.” It is commonly estimated that that there are between sixteen and twenty more infiltration tunnels that have escaped detection, based on photographic intelligence, defectors’ accounts and overheard demolition activities. For example, the defector Kim Pu-song claimed he had seen no fewer than nine tunnels while working as a surveyor. However, no additional infiltration tunnels have been located since 1990.”
North Korea’s Underground Bunkers And Bases Are A Nightmare For America
January 10, 2020
“Despite the warnings, the last major tunnel was discovered in 1990 and South Korea seems to believe that the tunneling danger has passed.
If it has passed, it may be because North Korea has decided to tunnel in different ways. The North Korean People’s Liberation Army Air Force is believed to have three different underground air bases at Wonsan, Jangjin and Onchun. The underground base at Wonsan reportedly includes a runway 5,900 feet long and ninety feet wide that passes through a mountain. According to a defector, during wartime NK PLAAF aircraft, including MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack aircraft, would take off from conventional air bases but return to underground air bases. This is plausible, as one would expect North Korean air bases to be quickly destroyed during wartime.
Another underground development is a series of troop bunkers near the DMZ. A North Korean defector disclosed that, starting in 2004, North Korea began building bunkers capable of concealing between 1,500 and two thousand fully armed combat troops near the border. At least eight hundred bunkers were built, not including decoys, meant to conceal units such as light-infantry brigades and keep them rested until the start of an invasion.
Other underground facilities are believed to have been constructed to shelter the North’s leadership. According to a South Korean military journal, the United States believes there are between six thousand and eight thousand such shelters scattered across the country. This information was reportedly gathered from defectors in order to hunt down regime members in the event of war or government collapse.
North Korea is believed to have hundreds of artillery-concealing caves just north of the DMZ. Known as Hardened Artillery Sites, or HARTS, these are usually tunneled into the sides of mountains. An artillery piece, such as a 170-millimeter Koksan gun or 240-millimeter multiple-launch rocket system, can fire from the mouth of the cave and then withdraw into the safety of the mountain to reload. These sites are used to provide artillery support for an invasion of South Korea or direct fire against Seoul itself. As of 1986, and estimated two hundred to five hundred HARTS were thought to exist.
According to a report by the Nautilus Institute, North Korea is also thought to have “radar sites in elevator shafts that can be raised up like a submarine periscope; submarine and missile patrol boat bases in tunnels hewn in rock; tunnels a kilometer or more in length for storing vehicles and supplies, or to hide the population of a nearby city.””
North Korea’s secret tunnels to infiltrate Seoul ‘more powerful than 10 atomic bombs’
NORTH KOREA has a tunnel network, constructed in preparation for a World War 3 situation, with the secretive states’ former leader dubbing it “more powerful than the atomic bomb”.
August 27, 2020
“A Korean defence white paper from 1990 claimed: “It is almost impossible to detect a two-metre-wide tunnel some hundreds of metres under the ground.”
It is estimated that there are between 16 and 20 more infiltration tunnels that have escaped detection, based on photographic intelligence, defectors’ accounts and overheard demolition activities.”
WAR ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA
“North Korea’s artillery attack on South Korea could cause more than 200,000 casualties: think tank”
August 8, 2020
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/07/103_294081.html
“A North Korean artillery attack on South Korea could cause more than 200,000 casualties in one hour, a U.S. think tank report showed Friday.
According to the RAND Corporation, the North maintains nearly 6,000 artillery pieces within range of large population centers in the South, enabling it to carry out a massive attack without using chemical or nuclear weapons.
The report estimated casualty numbers under five attack scenarios, factoring in the approximate number of North Korean artillery weapons, population densities in potential target areas, and assumptions about whether people were outdoors, indoors or below ground at the time of the attack.
A one-hour strike, using 5,700 long- and medium-range artillery pieces, along the entire length of the Demilitarized Zone, would hit all major population centers, including Seoul and Incheon, as well as the U.S. Army’s Camp Casey, resulting in as many as 205,600 casualties, the report said.
The other scenarios were a five-minute attack against a major industrial target, a one-minute attack along the DMZ, a one-minute attack against downtown Seoul and a one-hour attack against the central capital area.
The minimum number of casualties was estimated at around 4,500 in a one-minute strike along the DMZ.”
***SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS WHERE THE KOREA TIMES GOT THEIR INFORMATION FROM THE RAND CORPORATIONS 2020 REPORT***
RAND CORPORATION
North Korean Conventional Artillery
A Means to Retaliate, Coerce, Deter, or Terrorize Populations
2020
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA619-1.html
BACKGROUND
METHOLOGY
CASE 1
CASE 2
CASE 3
CASE 4
CASE 5
THE COST OF WAR
The Korean Peninsula
Three Dangerous Scenarios
2018
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE262.html
MAP
N.K. ARTILLERY RANGE:
SEOUL:
NORTH KOREAN SPECIAL FORCES
North Korea has the world’s largest special-operations force. A defected spy offers hints about how they’d be used in a war.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-north-korea-might-use-special-operations-troops-in-war-2021-10
“The Korean People’s Army (KPA) is one of the largest in the world, with an active-duty force of about 1.3 million. Pyongyang also has more than 200,000 special operators organized in standard formations, such as brigades, regiments, battalions, and in even smaller, more specialized outfits.
The typical special-operations unit has between 3,000 and 5,000 commandos and falls under the different branches of the North Korean military and under Pyongyang’s intelligence service, the Reconnaissance General Bureau.”
“In a recent report, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said “North Korean SOF are highly trained and well-equipped in comparison to other units, and, if successfully infiltrated into the South, would be capable of disruptive attacks in the rear area.”
NORTH KOREA NOW HAS NUCLEAR TORPEDOES
“The mysterious uncrewed underwater vehicle has been variously identified as a ‘nuclear attack drone,’ ‘uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV),’ or ‘long-range/long-endurance nuclear torpedo.’ While it remains unclear how best to describe it, most observers agree that it is intended to carry a nuclear warhead. In this sense, it is broadly similar in concept to Russia’s Poseidon ultra-long-endurance torpedo, and also has a strategic mission.”
North Korean Military Power:
https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=north-korea
As of early 2020, North Korea’s military nuclear program is believed to possess an arsenal of around 30 to 40 nuclear weapons. Additionally, they have the capacity to produce fissile material for an estimated six to seven nuclear weapons annually. Beyond this, North Korea has amassed a considerable cache of chemical and biological weaponry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army
THE DEAGEL REPORT – South Korea’s Population drops from
51,180,00 to 37,092,820 = 14,087,000 Population Drop by 2025
Marfoogle News on who was Dr. Edwin Deagel Jr.?
https://twitter.com/Marfoogle/status/1370572535444561921
Dr. Deagle, celebrated for his roles as a Vietnam Veteran, former Army Officer, and authority in national security, received his education at both the U.S. Military Academy and Harvard University. He held prominent positions including Under Secretary of the Air Force and Consultant to the National Security Council. He contributed during the Clinton and Carter presidencies and played a pivotal role as the Director of International Relations at the Rockefeller Foundation. Additionally, he was an esteemed member of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
Beyond his public service, Mr. Deagle was the proprietor of deagel.com, registered under both his name and his enterprise, Deagle Web Solutions.
Dr. Deagle’s legacy continues through his son, Ed, as he was sadly predeceased by his wife Judy and their son Michael. He passed away on February 16, 2021, and his final resting place will be Arlington National Cemetery.
PROBLEMS WITH U.S. AMMUNITION
Locked and loaded? $41.3B in U.S. military aid to Ukraine diminishes America’s weapons stockpiles
July 13, 2023
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/13/running-low-aid-ukraine-has-left-us-munitions-stoc/
“A sudden Chinese attack on Taiwan, for example, could pull America and its Pacific allies into battle, but there is mounting evidence that the U.S. could lack necessary firepower.”
Ammunition Shortage Looms in U.S. as Ukraine Aid Package Depletes Stockpiles
July 17, 2023
“As The New York Times reported, the U.S. military has been watching some of its stockpiles dwindle. That has included the 155mm artillery rounds, which are employed in the M777 Howitzer, while the U.S. has also sent vast quantities of its FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank launchers and ordnance as well.”
CONCLUSION
If China were to attack Taiwan, the repercussions would be catastrophic, not only for Taiwan and China but, as the evidence indicates, potentially for the Korean Peninsula as well. Should the U.S., in alliance with Japan, intervene in defense of Taiwan, the situation could quickly escalate. South Korean intelligence also hints at potential threats to their peninsula, especially to U.S. bases, if America were to get involved. Meanwhile, North Korea’s hidden motives cannot be ignored. It’s believed they possess undisclosed tunnels, significant manpower, and the world’s largest special forces. With Beijing’s approval, North Korea might join the fray, leading to unimaginable casualties. This could result in significant losses, encompassing military personnel from the U.S., Taiwan, China, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea, as well as countless civilians across the region.
I think that it’s most likely for China to attack Taiwan in 2025, when China’s newest aircraft carrier the Fujian, will be ready, which will bring China up to three carrier groups, which according to Admiral Huang Shu-kuang assessment, is what China needs at minimum to carry out an attack on Taiwan. Unless, China speeds that process up, perhaps it could start as early as 2024.
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