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Oil Explodes 20% Higher, Biggest Jump on Record - Trump: US 'Locked & Loaded Depending on Verification' of Attack on Saudi Oil Field +Video

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By Tyler Durden / ZeroHedge

Update (2100ET): Even the algos are confused at which way to push things…

In context.

And Shanghai Oil futures are halted limit up.

Source: Bloomberg

*  *  *

Trump: US ‘locked and loaded depending on verification’ of attack on Saudi oil field – Video

With traders in a state of near-frenzy, with a subset of fintwit scrambling (and failing) to calculate what the limit move in oil would be (hint: there is none for Brent), moments ago brent reopened for trading in the aftermath of Saturday’s attack on the “world’s most important oil processing plant“, and exploded some 20% higher, to a high of $71.95 from the Friday $60.22 close, its biggest jump since futures started trading in 1988.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg notes, “for oil markets, it’s the single worst sudden disruption ever, surpassing the loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi petroleum supply in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein invaded his neighbor. It also exceeds the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy.”

Furthermore, in light of news that the Saudi outage could last for months, this could be just the start. As a reminder, according to Morningstar research director, Sandy Fielden, “Brent could go to $80 tomorrow, while WTI could go to $75… But that would depend on Aramco’s 48-hour update. The supply problem won’t be clear right away since the Saudis can still deliver from inventory.”

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Of course, should Aramco confirm that the outage – which has taken some 5.7mmb/d in Saudi output after 10 drones struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and the kingdom’s second-biggest oil field in Khurais – will last for weeks, expect the crude juggernaut to continue until the price hits $80, and keeps moving higher.

Finally, here is the price summary from Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin, who earlier today laid out four possible shutdown scenarios, and the price oil could hit for each:

  • A very short outage – a week for example – would likely drive long-dated prices higher to reflect a growing risk premium, although short of what occurred last fall given a debottlenecked Permian shale basin, a weaker growth outlook and prospects of strong non-OPEC production growth in 2020. Such a price impact could likely be of $3-5/bbl.

  • An outage at current levels of two to six weeks would, in addition to this move in long-dated prices, see a steepening of the Brent forward curve (2-mo vs. 3-year forward) of $2 to $9/bbl respectively. All in, the expected price move would be between $5 and $14/bbl, commensurate to the length of the outage (a six month outage of 1 mb/d would be similar to a six week one at current levels).

  • Should the current level of outage be announced to last for more than six weeks, we expect Brent prices to quickly rally above $75/bbl, a level at which we believe an SPR release would likely be implemented, large enough to balance such a deficit for several months and cap prices at such levels.

  • An extreme net outage of a 4 mb/d for more than three months would likely bring prices above $75/bbl to trigger both large shale supply and demand responses.

What are the broader implications from this move? According to Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, “the global economy can ill afford higher oil prices at a time of economic slowdown.” But Peter Boockvar’s hot take may be the best one.

Peter [email protected]

I guess central bankers are pretty happy with the Iranians as they might actually get the inflation they’ve been rooting for.

3:12 PM – Sep 15, 2019

Yet while the inflationary impact from this surge will be transitory at best, it will be interesting to watch the Fed cut rates with stocks at all time highs, and with gasoline prices set for their biggest surge in decades.

Source: Bloomberg

Safe havens are also bid with gold futures back above $1500.

The good news: at least Trump will redirect his anger away from the Fed and toward slow, lazy, incompetent Saudi engineers, if only for the time being.

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    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Total 6 comments
    • raburgeson

      Oil was 100 a barrel when they charged us 300 a gallon in the past. Wonder how deep the gouge is going to get now and they do not intend to ever lower the price. Time to rub out the oil cartels.

      • Anonymous

        Recall ‘david goldberg’ said back in March- Iran War in October?
        Q’d, Jew’ed and screwed.
        Here’s Crisis Actor in Thief, twatting in 2011
        Donald J. Trump
        In order to get elected,
        will start a war with Iran.
        1:48 PM · Nov 29, 2011

      • Anonymous

        Potus Dump, taking a few dumps:
        Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.

        — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2012

        Don’t let Obama play the Iran card in order to start a war in order to get elected–be careful Republicans!

        — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2012

        I predict that President Obama will at some point attack Iran in order to save face!

        — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 16, 2013

        Remember what I previously said–Obama will someday attack Iran in order to show how tough he is.

        — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 25, 2013

        Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!

        — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 11, 2013

        • Anonymous

          Good job at showing the hypocrisy.

    • Anonymous

      Israel attacked Saudi’s Aramco oil processing plant with F-35 stealth jets with the hope of getting the USA citizens mad and willing ISRAEL IS OUR #1 to start a war with Iran, Syria and Russia.
      Neocon Pompey immediately started to fan the fires of war:
      Pompeo blames Iran for drone attacks on Saudi oil field
      And Trump’s newest security advisor started to say a nuclear war with Russia is winnable.
      John Bolton’s Jewish Replacement Fine With Gambling Away 20 Million Americans in Nuclear War
      ISRAEL IS OUR #1 ENEMY. They don’t mind having 20 million USA citizens killed just so they can keep on bombing Syria.

    • Anonymous

      Iran attacking SA would make as much sense as Epstein disappearing and the Elite Liars expecting us to believe he is dead and killed himself, with no body to show nor funeral.
      Nobody believes these criminals anymore.

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