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Could European Diesel Hit $250/Barrel?

Short answer: possible, 

                 Global Fuel Shortage Tracker — Jet Fuel, Petrol & Diesel Alerts Worldwide | GEF

2 days ago - Is there a fuel shortage today? Live tracker of jet fuel, petrol and diesel shortages by country. Severity ratings, cause attribution. Updated daily.

Could European Diesel Hit $250/Barrel?

Short answer: possible,

War Update: Trump Knows He Lost As World Pays Price! – Gas Shortages In France! Are We Next?

https://www.youtube.com/@DaveNealComedian

Europe is facing a severe diesel shortage driven by depleted stockpiles, reduced refining capacity, and supply chain disruptions, with France experiencing the most acute physical shortages where 11% of service stations (one in nine) are currently out of stock. 

Key Details on the Current Crisis:

• Physical Shortages: While Europe has avoided total systemic collapse, physical scarcity is spreading. France reports the highest impact, with shortages concentrated in regions like Grand Est (16% of stations affected).  Germany faces significant price stress and feedstock losses, while Russia has officially introduced diesel rationing. 

  1. Russian refining collapse
  Ukrainian drone strikes have taken roughly 25% of Russia’s refining capacity offline (some sources cite ~40% of plants partially or fully out).  In early July, Moscow imposed a full diesel export ban (~800,000 bpd of supply removed from global markets).  Russia’s throughput is at a two-decade low.  The ban also displaced buyers like Brazil and Turkey into the Atlantic Basin market, competing directly with European importers. 

  2. Strait of Hormuz crisis
  Following the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran in late February, Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen have severely disrupted shipping through the strait. Throughput dropped from ~21.6 million bpd before the war to 4.9 million bpd in Q2.  A leaked Iranian plan would ban Western ships and impose fees up to 7% of cargo value on others. The disruption affects roughly 1.2 million bpd of refined product flows.  Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery (~200,000 bpd) was struck and has been shut since 27 July, hit again on 7 SeptemberStrait of Hormuz crisis

• Cumulative supply losses now exceed 1 billion barrels, with ~14 mb/d of Gulf oil shut in — the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market (IEA). 

• The East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Saudi Arabia’s main bypass route) was shut down on 11 September 2026, eliminating the last major workaround.  Total disruption is now 39% of global trade and 31% of global shipmentsEuropean diesel is already trading near $200/barrel — winter demand will push it higher.