See how well the government is going

So late last night I got a tweet containing this graph. (Note it shows tax receipts, total receipts.)

It was first sent out by Possum AFAIK, but it has been sent to me a few times – usually with abusive comments (one such individual had a huge night and seems to have gotten his account suspended).

Anyway that graph shows two things. First it refers to a promise made by the current government that it would maintain tax revenues at or below the 2007-08 level. It also shows the decline in revenue that the current government has experienced – making life so difficult for poor old Wayne Swan. Others might argue that it proves that we have a low-taxing government.

That got me thinking – what else could be shown in this way? So I grabbed data from the latest MYEFO and got graphing. Well first thing let’s have a look at the dollar amounts of taxation revenue.

It is true – there was a decline in taxation receipts – for two years – but tax revenue is way up on 2007-08 levels. The government has heaps of money to spend and spend it has.

So much for “This reckless spending must stop”. I got that graph in dollar values too.

Yep – spending is way up in dollar terms. But what about other things people care about? Like the budget balance or debt? Net Debt first.

I’ve got that in dollar terms too but I think most people would get the basic idea. How is the budget balance looking? Well not good. When looking at the next graph remember that the government has indicated that it probably won’t be able to meet its forecast surplus this year, so the numbers for this year and those going forward are dodgy. The pattern however is plain to see.

So the very best spin that can be put on those numbers is that the government has kept its promise to maintain tax revenues as a percentage of GDP at levels lower than it inherited. But it failed to stop the reckless spending – in fact spending accelerated on 2007-08 levels. Sure – blame the GFC; but that was a long time ago.

In fact tax revenue to GDP has remained muted because the private, tax-paying, economy has been weak – partly by the policies this government has adopted. So this is a government that has been unable to pursue policies that promote economic growth, spent too much, borrowed too much and has been unable to balance its budget.