… is from a comment left by my emeritus Nobel-laureate colleague Vernon Smith on a Facebook post by Phil Magness – a Facebook post in which Phil quite justifiably scolds Imperial College ‘modeler’ Neil Ferguson:
Prediction has asymmetric consequences for the forecaster. If you are wrong, few care enough to give it recognition; if right you are a genius. The global warming models have been consistently wrong, but treated as if still relevant. And they violate the first principle of credible forecasting, viz that they be adjusted for own forecasting error.
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