Social Security’s $46 Trillion Debt Risk | New Cato Analysis
With the national debt now above $40 trillion, Social Security is often treated as a problem that won’t arrive until its trust fund is exhausted in 2032. But the program has already been adding to federal debt for more than a decade.
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In new analysis, Cato’s Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia estimate that if Congress responds to trust fund exhaustion by borrowing to maintain scheduled benefits rather than reforming the program, Social Security could add roughly $46 trillion to federal debt between 2026 and 2056.
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Of that total, about $25.4 trillion would come from Social Security’s underlying cash-flow shortfalls, while roughly $21 trillion would come from the interest costs associated with financing current and prior Social Security borrowing. Altogether, Social Security would account for roughly 34% of projected federal debt growth over the period.
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Boccia and Nachkebia argue that borrowing would not solve Social Security’s financing problem. It would shift the shortfall onto the federal budget and allow interest costs to compound, making eventual reform more difficult.
You can read the full analysis here. If you would like to speak with Romina about Social Security’s finances, the cost of delaying reform, or options for addressing the program’s insolvency, I would be happy to connect you.
Best,
Ryan Carver
Media Relations Manager
540–589‑0573
Cato Institute
1000 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.
Washington, DC 20001
Source: https://www.cato.org/news-releases/social-securitys-46-trillion-debt-risk-new-cato-analysis
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