Strong Jobs Report Makes the Case for a Rate Hike, Not a Cut | Cato’s Jai Kedia
Following this morning’s stronger-than-expected jobs report and President Trump’s renewed call for lower interest rates, I wanted to share a statement from the Cato Institute’s Jai Kedia, a research fellow at the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives:
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Today’s BLS report showed that US firms increased hiring much more than expected. This has led President Trump to once again demand lower interest rates, but macroeconomics would advise the reverse. Standard monetary policy rules would advocate a rate hike in our present economic situation where a healthy labor market is coupled with above target inflation.
In reality, it has been unclear for a while whether the labor market is healthy or not. While job creation numbers have fluctuated quite a bit since 2025, the unemployment rate weighed against its natural capacity—the Fed’s preferred measure—has barely budged. The confusion stems primarily from the Fed failing to provide a clear framework or reaction function for how it sets interest rates in relation to the unemployment rate. To improve monetary policy outcomes, provide clarity to markets, as well as shield its independence, the best thing the Fed can do is commit to a clear monetary policy rule and stick to it.
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If you would like to speak with Jai to discuss today’s jobs report, the outlook for interest rates, and the case for a rules-based approach to monetary policy, please contact Cato PR at pr@caot.org.
Source: https://www.cato.org/news-releases/strong-jobs-report-makes-case-rate-hike-not-cut-catos-jai-kedia
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