Markets, Not Governments, Solved the Critical Minerals ‘Crisis’

Just a few years ago, the world was supposedly running out of the metals and minerals necessary for the energy transition. In May 2021, for example, the International Energy Agency warned of a “looming mismatch” between the supply and demand of cobalt, lithium, nickel and other critical minerals. A few years later, Washington think tanks were still warning of short supplies, with one calling the matter a “national security imperative.” Members of both political parties responded to the “emergency” with subsidies, tariffs, and unprecedented government equity stakes.

Now it looks like much of this panic was overblown. Nine of the 10 materials included in BloombergNEF’s Transition Metals Outlook 2026 are on track to have sufficient capacity through 2050 — a significant improvement over previous forecasts. Graphite, platinum and steel flipped from projected shortages to projected surpluses. BNEF now expects long-term downward pressure on the prices of cobalt, lithium, manganese, nickel and palladium, with oversupply potentially discouraging investment.

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You Should Worry About Copper
Supply capacity and demand for 10 key materials under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, indexed to 2026 demand = 1

What happened to these materials is what usually happens: The market reacted on both the supply and the demand side, with new investments boosting the former and advances in battery and other technologies changing the latter. Prices declined, and the “crises” were averted.

Consider, for example, the evolving market for cobalt, which in December 2020 was cited as proof that China’s state-directed industrial policy had “outmaneuvered” America’s laissez-faire approach. In response to high prices and dire warnings of impending shortages, private investors funded new, non-Chinese projects, and manufacturers developed alternatives to cobalt-based batteries. By 2023, prices had collapsed: Automakers had shifted toward batteries that use less of the metal, output was surging in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Indonesia, and investors were still piling in, all before any new US industrial policies could have mattered.

Tellingly, the cobalt problem that did materialize was government-made. Facing oversupply and a price slump, the DRC restricted cobalt exports in February 2025, causing prices to more than double over the year. The market’s response was, once again, to work around the problem: Along with the aforementioned demand shift, Indonesia’s exports of refined cobalt products more than tripled while recycled supply also picked up. Today, prices are down more than 40% from their summer highs, and BNEF expects longer-term declines as surpluses widen.

This positive development is part of a longstanding pattern. During the pandemic and following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, widespread predictions of supply-chain doom — for medical goods, food, energy and more — never materialized. When the Iran war took roughly a fifth of the world’s crude supply offline, many (me included) worried about the potential fallout. Yet global energy prices, while elevated, never skyrocketed like many predicted, and serious shortages didn’t appear.

Across a variety of supply-chain non-events, the causes were the same: Public and private inventories were tapped, shippers re-routed, new supplies emerged, consumers rationalized, and businesses adapted and innovated. The pending crises made headlines, but the subsequent adjustments didn’t.

So why do the pessimistic forecasts keep missing? First, they’re static snapshots that rely on today’s suppliers, consumers, technologies and prices. They can’t capture millions of producers, workers, recyclers, traders, buyers and (yes) government officials responding to market signals with knowledge — of their own needs, investments ideas, and more — that no forecaster or planner can possibly possess. Instead, the pessimists have what Nobel laureate F.A. Hayek called the “pretense of knowledge,” but also a distinct political advantage: The pessimist can identify a specific problem and offer a specific “solution.” The optimist can say only that markets will somehow adjust. (Good luck winning an election with that.)

Second, the pessimistic forecasts underestimate the ability of humans — guided by prices and markets — to innovate our way out of almost any resource problem. This shortcoming was most famously demonstrated when de-growth biologist Paul Ehrlich lost his bet with economist Julian Simon over the prices of five metals — copper, chromium, nickel, tin and tungsten — between 1980 and 1990. Ehrlich mailed Simon a check for $576.07 because, contrary to his predictions, the basket had significantly fallen in price.

Simon has good company in debunking Malthusian catastrophism. In the 1970s, the late Nobel laureate William Nordhaus predicted that markets would prevent modern societies from collapsing from resource exhaustion. More recently, Superabundance authors Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy found that from 1980 to 2025, the prices of 50 key commodities fell by about 71% even as the world’s population grew by 85%. Aided by the free exchange of goods and ideas, people turn out to be a driver of new resources rather than a drain on them.

In BNEF’s 2026 report, copper is the outlier. It projects a supply deficit in 2028 that hits 20 million metric tons by 2050 (44% of projected demand) and will need $332 billion for new mines, which take 17 years on average to open. These are undoubtedly daunting figures, but the safe bet is that the crisis will again be avoided.

For starters, today’s copper market reflects a now-ended “perfect storm” of mine disruptions between May 2025 and August 2026. Demand is also already adjusting: in October, industry pros said that customers balked when copper prices topped $14,000 per metric ton, that grid projects were waiting on lower prices, and that automotive and appliance manufacturers were pivoting to copper alternatives. Scrap collection and recycling are also gaining steam, and “urban mining” — extracting copper from decommissioned sites and old electronics — has become more economically viable.

None of this means that policymakers should stand idle in the face of possible supply challenges. Eliminating trade barriers, reducing regulatory burdens and bottlenecks, improving infrastructure and deepening cooperation with allied countries can help to boost supply, resiliency, and adjustment. Non-market tools such as stockpiling and targeted subsidies can also contribute at the margins.

Overall, however, the maxim holds: The solution to high prices is high prices — and letting these powerful signals motivate market actors. The biggest risks, on the other hand, come not from “unfettered” markets but from governments, particularly ones enacting kneejerk responses to supposed “emergencies.”

Washington isn’t blameless on this score. Copper markets have been thrown into chaos by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threat of even more, which Reuters reports pulled more than 1 million metric tons into US stockpiles, left Comex-approved warehouses holding roughly 70% of the world’s visible copper, and created shortages elsewhere, fueling a price surge despite a global surplus. Policy uncertainty is today keeping metal in American warehouses — and discouraging investments and other market moves that would alleviate future disruptions.

So, a US government worried about copper security is fomenting the very risks that it fears, and if copper does turn into a crisis, Washington will deserve a chunk of the blame. The market, as usual, will just be doing the math it was given.