Obama and Syria! Not Strategic Not Tactic! Then What? Part I - A. Hany Hassanain

Embarrassed President Obama after the British Parliament vote to refuse sharing in striking Syria even if it is a limited one, put more stress on the already stressed man who tries to find a way to save face. Germany and France are hesitant and they made it clear that they want to give a political solution a chance. Russia exposed the US trials to fabricate evidences of the use of the chemical weapons, the way Bush’s administration did ten years ago when he decided to invade Iraq.

When a tactic action serves the global strategy, usually the decision makers find it easy to serve the objectives of the strategy. Obama is in a state of strategic paradox. That means his decision to act may backfire and harm his strategy.

One may ask the first question. Does striking Syria serve the Global or Middle East American strategy in the short or the long term?

The first objective of the global US strategy is to confront China and for the Middle East the US has two main objectives, the Israeli security and control of the regional oil and safeguarding its exporting channels. Part of the long term plans to confront China is to use Islamists Fundamentalists to fight there with Moslems in the western part of China. To achieve that goal it is not a must the fundamentalists rule the Middle East. The US used them before to fight the ex-Soviet Union in Afghanistan and recruited Osama Ben Laden to that.

For the American Middle East strategy the first objective is the security of Israel. Here the American decision makers have two options. Either they help fundamentalists who seek power to rule and their long term strategy that is a new Caliphate state is unrealistic now or to set non written agreed lines with secularists who see Israel their long term existence threat but they know that confronting Israel is not militarily only but by sustainable development on the long term. Although Middle East secularists consider Israel their long term enemy but they respect agreements. But the fundamentalists may fire suddenly some rockets at Israel that are not effective but they fire them to satisfy their followers who do not know about their commands secret agreements with the CIA instigating instability from now and then. For oil and wealth control both secularists and fundamentalists are happy with the petrodollars. The New Middle East plan is the corner stone that the US, Israel and the Islamists built their alliance upon it. This helps Israel to expand on the expense of the disintegrated countries while the ideology of the Islamists does not consider area or nation but the idea of the Caliphate State anywhere. Turkey provided the place and Erdogan as an Islamist and fundamentalist does not care about integration of his land and secretly his policies help Kurds to have their state. What does all that do with striking Syria? If strikes are enough to topple Asad then it is integrated with the American Middle East Strategy. However Russia refuses that and the Americans said it clear that their strike will be a limited one that will not change the balance of power on the ground. This limited strike has no place in the American strategy. Advocates of the strike in Washington claim that as president Obama put a red line for using the Chemical weapons an action should be taken to preserve the American credibility. This credibility evaporated when the Russian Ambassador to the UN Security Council showed that the Americans fabricate evidences against the governmental Syrian Army.

After Europeans reluctance to go to the end of the road with the Americans and in Washington they need allies to strike with them, their option may be Turkey and painting some fighters with the Qatari flag and American pilots fly them to do the strike.

What is most important for the world to know is the differences between the American strategic aim and the European strategic aims. The American strategy in the Middle East may expose Europe to risks that the last thing Europeans need during their economic crisis. This will be part II.

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