Iran left in the cold in Syria

Russia and backstabbing.

Russia and treason.

These are the terms becoming very common in the political atmosphere heard in Iran these days. Various political analysts have described historic relations between Moscow and Tehran as riddled in such disputes. The latest such precedent was witnessed in Russia’s surprise decision to pull out the bulk of its military forces from Syria. A look at the past few years is needed to gain a more in-depth view of the entire scenario in Syria. Protests in this country followed in line with Arab Spring developments that rocked the entire Middle East, overthrowing ruling regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The methods adopted by Russia and Iran, however, were quite different based on their own interests.

Russia backs off, Iran digs in deep

Following the tumultuous events in the Libya, Tunisia and Egypt as strongmen lost their aura of invincibility, Russia eventually reached this conclusion of Syria also being completely lost. Iran was the only party providing billions in support to keep Assad in power. As a result, Kremlin stepped aside and began witnessing Assad’s rule crumbling. Again, Iran was actively supporting the Levant dictator, knowing a scenario similar to Libya against its strategic Middle East ally would spell disaster. In contrast to the situation in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, Iran’s intervention became a game-changer and plunged Syria into a bloody war.

Iran convinces Russia

As Assad was able to overcome a very dangerous chapter, Iran was able to convince Russia to adopt a more active approach vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Kremlin took action and the climax of their political maneuvers was to seal an agreement with Washington to disarm Assad of his chemical weapons arsenal. Despite U.S. President Barack Obama pledging Assad’s use of chemical weapons was considered a red line for America, Washington backed off from military measures against the Assad regime despite global clamoring for direct riposte. This allowed Russia and Iran to place an initiative on the table relieving Assad of the catastrophic consequences of an international military campaign.

Russia launches military campaign

Reassured of no military attack against Syria, Russia and Iran were able to significantly change the status quo in Assad’s favor. Syria becoming a greenhouse for terrorists and the rise of Daesh (the Arabic acronym for the self-proclaimed Islamic State) also came to Assad’s support by changing the focus of the West on the issue of Syria. Russia dispatched its military forces to Syria under such conditions, and under the pretext of targeting Daesh basis Moscow focused its lethal carpet-bombing air campaign against Syria’s moderate opposition and even civilians. This galvanized the conflict at a time when many defense analysts argued entering a military conflict is based on one’s decision, while exiting such an ordeal is usually out of their hands.

Russia packs its bags

Moscow’s military campaign shifted the balance of power on the ground in Assad’s favor. Now Russia has decided to leave Syria. Aside from various inclinations over the Kremlin’s actual impetus behind this latest surprise move, we must answer this important question of how far was Russia willing to back Iran in Syria. In today’s world of international relations, various players take action and adopt a strategy specifically based on their own interests. Current events have proven these strategies can change nature in a matter of months.

If we consider Iran’s interests associated to Assad remaining in power in Syria, is any party willing to remain at Iran’s side? It is crystal clear Russia never sought to do Iran any favor in Syria. Moscow merely saw its temporary tactical interests parallel to that of Tehran in Syria, with no iteration in sight. Russia simply shored up Assad and quickly downsized before their presence became too pricey. Naturally, this never meant the two would remain in one path forever. Russia is currently engaged in tête-à-tête negotiations with the U.S. over Syria’s future and rest assured Assad remaining in power is no die-hard must for Moscow.

Despite channeling billions to maintain Assad at the helm in Syria, Iran no longer has the final word in Syria. The Syrian people and opposition, with nearly half a million reported dead in the past 5 years, have paid the ultimate price to force Russia out of their country, and leave no conclusion possible but defeat for Iran and Assad. Thanks to the Syrian people’s courage the balance of power has altered significantly against Assad, no longer considered a dictator to be reckoned with. Following the major nuclear setbacks, Iran is now suffering another huge defeat in the Middle East by losing Syria.