Weekly Commentary: The February 2028 Poison Pill for an Eisenkot Minority Government

Weekly Commentary: The February 2028 Poison Pill for an Eisenkot Minority
Government
Dr. Aaron Lerner, 29 October 2026
https://youtu.be/LNcfe88Hkxg

The emergency regulations governing Israeli jurisdiction in Judea and
Samaria, which brought down Naftali Bennett’s government in 2022, could also
doom a minority government headed by Gadi Eisenkot.

The regulations expire on 15 February 2028.

In June 2022, Netanyahu and his allies voted against extending regulations
they supported in principle, demonstrating that bringing down Bennett’s
government took precedence over passing the legislation.

Facing the prospect of the regulations expiring, Bennett and Lapid moved to
dissolve the Knesset, triggering an automatic extension that gave the next
government time to act.

Netanyahu’s government subsequently extended the regulations until February
2028.

Now consider an Eisenkot minority government relying on Arab parties for
outside support.

There is no reason to expect Netanyahu’s opposition to rescue Eisenkot by
supporting the extension.

Hadash-Ta’al would almost certainly vote against it rather than abstain.

Ra’am would face its own dilemma. Voting for the extension could be
politically devastating among Arab voters, while even abstaining could be
portrayed as enabling the continuation of Israeli jurisdiction in Judea and
Samaria.

The result could be a parliamentary deadlock forcing Eisenkot to dissolve
the Knesset before the regulations expire, just as Bennett did in 2022.

But there is another poison in this pill.

Parties that promised voters they would not rely on Arab parties to form a
government would have broken that promise to install Eisenkot.

Their best hope would be to remain in office long enough to accumulate
achievements that might convince disappointed voters that the compromise was
worthwhile.

The February 2028 deadline could deny them that opportunity.

An early election could come before the government had achieved enough to
offset the political damage of breaking those promises.

Netanyahu’s campaign message would be devastatingly simple: they broke their
promises, formed a government dependent on Arab parties, and then discovered
they could not govern.

Voters who felt betrayed would have an opportunity to punish them at the
ballot box.

The Judea and Samaria emergency regulations are therefore a double poison
pill for an Eisenkot minority government: they could force an early election
and ensure that the election takes place before the parties that broke their
campaign promises have enough achievements to justify their decision to the
voters.

Any party contemplating this arrangement should look carefully at the
calendar before taking the plunge.

________________________________________
IMRA – Independent Media Review and Analysis

Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on
Arab-Israeli relations

Website: www.imra.org.il

Source: https://www.imra.org.il/story.php?id=74508