Tesla Model 3 ramp shows encouraging signs with 16k new VIN registrations in 7 days

Tesla has filed more than 16,000 new Model 3 VIN registrations in the past seven days, in what is yet another encouraging sign that the company is hitting its stride with the production of the electric car. Tesla has been working on sustaining the pace it displayed during its “burst production week” in the last seven days of June, when it manufactured 5,000 Model 3 in one week. These latest VIN registrations, together with updates from Tesla’s executives during the Q2 earnings call, indicate that Tesla is doing just that. 

VIN registrations monitored by Twitter group @Model3VINs indicate that Tesla has filed multiple batches equaling more than 16,000 new Model 3 from August 5 to August 12. With the addition of small batches of new VINs this Sunday, Tesla has now registered a total of 98,254 Model 3 since the vehicle’s production started. Together with this notable ramp was an increase in filings corresponding to Dual Motor vehicles, which started picking up in July. Following is a graph showing the rise in Dual Motor VIN registrations as of August 1, 2018.

The Model 3 started production in mid-2017, but its ramp has been nothing but encouraging. When Elon Musk handed over the first 30 vehicles to employees in last year’s Model 3 Handover Party, Musk stated that Tesla would likely hit a production rate equal to 5,000 cars per week by the end of December 2017. Tesla was only able to attain this target on the final week of June 2018, and only by adopting unorthodox strategies such as air-freighting robots from Europe to the United States and building an entirely new assembly line inside a sprung structure on the grounds of the Fremont factory.

Since hitting its 5,000/week goal at the end of Q2, Tesla appears to have attained a breakthrough in the production of the Model 3. This week’s more than 16,000 new Model 3 VIN filings, for example, is roughly equal to the total VIN registrations in the first eight months of the vehicle’s production. VIN registrations over the past few months indicate that Tesla only breached the 16,000-vehicle mark near the end of March 2018.

Even Bloomberg‘s Model 3 production tracker, which has progressively increased its accuracy over the past few months (it was only 2% off Tesla’s actual numbers in Q2), now shows that the company is steadily approaching the 6,000 Model 3 per week mark. As of writing, the publication’s tracker estimates that Tesla is producing 5,824 Model 3 per week.

In Tesla’s Q2 2018 earnings call, Elon Musk stated that the company was able to sustain its optimum production pace during multiple weeks in July. Musk’s statement confirmed speculations last month that Tesla did not let up its push to manufacture the Model 3 at scale since hitting its production milestone at the end of June. These speculations were fueled by initiatives such as the start of test drive programs for the Model 3, a 5-Minute Sign & Drive program, and a ramp in the hiring of employees. The company also registered more than 19,000 new Model 3 VINs in the first two weeks of July.

The news coverage surrounding Tesla over the past week has been dominated by the possibility of the company going private when the stock hits $420 per share. But behind all this is one encouraging sign — the Model 3’s production ramp, which took almost a whole year to hit 5,000/week, finally seems to be going as planned.

Tesla has only released three versions of the Model 3 — the Performance, Dual Motor AWD, and the Long Range RWD variants — but the electric sedan has already made an impact in the US auto market. In July alone, the Model 3 ranked 7th overall in GoodCarBadCar‘s list of America’s Top 20 best-selling vehicles list, which includes popular gas-powered cars like the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord.

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