Illegitimate Jobless Report Omitted Largest State’s Labor Stats
- ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week’s jobless claims. Assertions that “a large state” was excluded from the report are patently false.
- It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state–California–were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state’s jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.
- The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.
- The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed totalled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to “normalize” the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.
- This week’s “normalized” jobless claims number, therefore, would be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.
- Jobless claims were better than expected, even after adjusting for an unusual anomaly
- There was an unusual anomaly that made this week’s jobless claims look better than they would otherwise have been.
2012-10-12 04:42:09
Source: http://thedailypen.blogspot.com/2012/10/illegitimate-jobless-report-omitted.html
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