DEVIL IN THE DETAILS – According to the final CNN/ORC International Poll of the 2012 Presidential campaign season, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are said to be tied at 49%. However, buried deep in the pages of the statistical maelstrom there is published a shocking piece of information which indicates that Barack Obama is on course to lose the election by as much as 10 points or more. CNN’s poll actually oversampled Democrats by 11% over Republicans.
by Dan Crosby
of the DAILY PEN
NEW YORK, NY – On page 29 of a 57 page CNN/ORC International Poll released on November 5th, there is published a description of the methodology used by CNN/ORC International to complete the poll. According to the description, the poll asked 11 percent more Democrats than Republican who they would vote for this election.
The poll indicates an ongoing effort by long-standing pro-Obama media networks to skew polling data in favor of a narrative that the election will be very close. Broadcast media networks like CNN, FOX and MSNBC have a vested interest in making the public believe the election is closer than it actually is because the controversial nature of a “tight” election draws larger viewership to their election coverage shows.
Hedging the risk of a disparate election result this Tuesday, when compared to its poll prediction, CNN/ORC cites a margin of error at an astonishing +/- 8.5%, instead of the typical 3% seen in most polls. By including such a large margin of error, CNN/ORC is able to excuse a disparate result between its poll and the actual election results in the event that Romney wins by more than 8 points.
“Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”
Even with the 11 percent sample advantage for Democrats, the poll results reveal that Barack Obama is merely tied with Mitt Romney, 49% to 49%. This means that out of the 1010 people polled, it took 111 more Democrats than Republicans, 414 to 303 just to get a result which shows the two candidates are tied.
The poll claims to be non-partisan, even with a majority of respondents identifying themselves as Democrats.
Theoretically, if those 111 Democrats are omitted, the poll results would actually show an advantage for Romney by as much as 49% to 38%. This means, in order to make up the difference, a majority of Independent voters would have to vote for Obama by a 83% to 17% advantage!
Based on multiple polls, including Gallup, Rasmussen and NYT/CBS, Romney holds a minimum of a 7% advantage among Independents, 53 percent to 46 percent.
The description of the poll’s methodology states:
“A total of 1,010 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters.”
“Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.Crosstabs on the following pages only include results for subgroups with enough unweighted cases to produce a sampling error of +/- 8.5 percentage points or less. Some subgroups represent too small a share of the national population to produce crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error. Interviews were conducted among these subgroups, but results for groups with a sampling error larger than +/-8.5 percentage points are not displayed and instead are denoted with “N/A”.”
The follow-story at CNN.com continues as follows:
“Washington (CNN)– It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.
And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.
Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.
The poll is the fourth national non-partisan, live operator survey released Sunday to indicate the battle for the presidency either a dead heat or virtually tied. A Politico/George Washington University survey has it tied at 48%; an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%; and the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 48%.
A Pew Research Center survey also released Sunday indicates the president at 50% and the GOP challenger at 47%, which is within the survey’s sampling error.”
Skeptics continue to question the accuracy of most polling data.
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