2011 Elections Preview

YWC is closely monitoring the 2011 elections which are scheduled to take place tomorrow across America. The Mainstream Media is devoting enormous attention to the Ohio vote on repealing SB 5, but those of us who follow the immigration wars are watching other races much more closely.

Arizona

As Kevin has already explained, Russell Pearce faces Jerry Lewis tomorrow in a recall election in Arizona. The Left has devoted enormous resources to knocking off Senator Pearce who has been the leading champion of immigration reform in Arizona. The polls are showing a dead heat race.

Iowa

There is a special election tomorrow in Iowa tomorrow which could break Democrat control of the Iowa Senate. Republican Cindy Golding takes on Democrat Liz Mathis. If Golding wins the special election, the Iowa Senate falls under Republican control. Republicans already control the governor’s mansion and the Iowa House.

Virginia

There are state legislative elections in Virginia tomorrow. Republicans are likely to capture the Virginia Senate. Earlier this year, the Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate blocked 10 out 12 immigration bills that were passed by the Virginia House. 

Kentucky

In Kentucky, there is a governor’s race between Republican David Williams and Gov. Steve Beshear. The polls show that Beshear is the clear favorite to win that race. As president of the Kentucky Senate, Williams passed an Arizona-style immigration law that was killed by the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House.

Mississippi 

In Mississippi, there is a governor’s race between Lieutentant Gov. Phil Bryant and Democrat Johnny Dupree. Bryant who is a strong supporter of Arizona-style immigration reform is the clear favorite to win that race. There is also a strong Voter ID law on the Mississippi ballot. 

The state legislative elections in Mississippi could end Democratic control of the Mississippi House. Earlier this year, the Mississippi House killed the strong immigration reform package that passed the Mississippi Senate.

Louisiana 

Louisiana has already held open primaries for state elections this year. Gov. Bobby Jindal won a landslide reelection victory. The state legislative elections will be held on November 19th under the newly redrawn legislative maps.

How is this likely to shake out?

Gov. Beshear is likely to win reelection in Kentucky, but Phil Bryant is likely to win in Mississippi. The Virginia Senate is likely to fall under Republican control. Republicans are likely to pad their majorities in the Louisiana state legislature. The Mississippi state legislature could fall under Republican control like its counterparts in Louisiana and Alabama. The special election in Iowa is a toss up. 

If Sen. Pearce goes down in Arizona tomorrow, the Left will predictably claim it is a great blow to the immigration reform movement, but the state legislative elections in Virginia, Louisiana, and Mississippi are far more important because SB 1070 is beyond the state legislature and on its way to the Supreme Court. 

In 2012, Republican-controlled state legislatures in Mississippi, Virginia, and Louisiana could move aggressively on Arizona-style immigration laws. It could happen in Mississippi as early as January. 

Earlier this year, Mississippi and Virginia aggressively moved on immigration reform, but the push in both of those states was blocked by Democrats in the Mississippi House and Virginia. 

The election results will be discussed here tomorrow. Stay tuned.

(Note — Youth for Western Civilization takes no stand on elections and there are other issues besides immigration.  Nothing in this should be interpreted as an argument to vote for or against any particular candidate.)