It’s Still the Economy, Stupid

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

Just a reminder: Obama beat McCain in 2008 365-173, not hugely different from this model’s prediction.

The DNC media hailed that victory as epochal. I wonder if they’ll be as generous with their praise if this result should turn out to be accurate.