Ed Gillespie: Romney Could Win Decisively (VIDEO)

It is after all the Sunday before a presidential election, so I’d just like to get one thing out there for the record.  At least 50% of what your’e going to hear or read about from campaign advisers is going to be either A) misinformation; B) strategy and misdirection: or C) total bullshit.  That said, watching the approach both sides take can be particularly telling.  On This Week with George Stephanopoulos, Obama adviser David Plouffe spent much of his time speaking about Hurricane Sandy and the President’s response.  He spent the rest of the time attempting to characterize Governor Romney’s closing strategy of courting Pennsylvania as a desperate attempt by a desperate campaign.

In a nutshell, the argument is this.  President Obama sealed the election with his response to Sandy; and Governor Romney’s throwing one last Hail Mary in the direction of Pennsylvania.  I think both are somewhat laughable; but like I said, we’re dealing with misinformation, misdirection, and total bullshit.

But on to the token Romney adviser – who also falls into the aforementioned two days before election day matrix – Ed Gillespie.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You heard David Plouffe’s assessment of the battlegrounds right now. They believe they’re in a strong position with that Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin firewall, and you heard him say that you all are playing defense in Virginia and Florida and a desperate ploy in Pennsylvania. Your response?

GILLESPIE: You know, four years ago — it’s — it’s a remarkable juxtaposition here that Mitt Romney will be in the suburbs of Philadelphia today, and, you know, four years ago, Barack Obama was in Indiana. When you look at where this map has gone, it reflects the — the change and the direction and the momentum toward Governor Romney. And the fact is that a state like Pennsylvania being in play, a poll out today showing Michigan a dead heat, you know, this — the map has expanded.

Wisconsin, Minnesota has expanded our way. We feel very confident in terms of where we are in the — in the target states. We’ve been able to expand into Pennsylvania while fully funding and staying current with everything we need to be doing in Florida and Virginia and Ohio and all of the other target states.

STEPHANOPOULOS: And you think they’re going to break — but when you see all the public polls in the battleground states, most of them show the president holding a quite small in many of the states, but steady lead in a lot of the key battlegrounds. You just think those state polls have some kind of statistical bias in them?

GILLESPIE: Well, it depends on which ones. I mean, I — you know, there was a poll in Virginia, as you know, my home state, that had the president winning by 2 percentage points — I think it was 47-45 — and Governor Romney winning the independent vote by 21 percentage points. Now, I can tell you, George, if Governor Romney wins independents in Virginia by 21 percentage points on Tuesday, he will not lose to President Obama by 2 percentage points.

So there is — you know, the most recent public poll for one of the other networks had — Ohio had Obama ahead, but it had a plus-9 percentage point Democratic advantage. That would be a bigger margin than — for President Obama in 2012 than he enjoyed in 2008. I just don’t buy that. I don’t see it.

I actually believe, when I look at the data, when I look at where the president is, when you’re the incumbent president of the United States and you are at 47 percent or 48 percent on your ballot two days before the election, you are in deep trouble. And that’s where they are today. And I don’t — I believe, when I look at the intensity numbers, when I look at being on the road for three days with Governor Romney and the crowds, when I look at the undecideds, I believe that Governor Romney will not only win on Tuesday, I believe he could win decisively.

Independents, independents, independents.  That’s clearly the last minute appeal from the Romney camp.  As I’ve said repeatedly here, I think that’s a strategy he should have been using weeks ago.  If the electorate genuinely wants “change”, what change can really result from reelecting a president with a similar composition in the House and the Senate all parties have spent two years pissing and moaning about?  The Senate’s not switching hands in the final hours between now and Tuesday, so the presidency is the only option.

Will that play in Pennsylvania?  As I said in my reaction to the Plouffe interview, I’m inclined to say no.  But I do think its a sharp and clever move on part of the Romney camp.  You’re sitting on the cash.  You can’t take it with you.

While I do not think Pennsylvania will end up going Republican, I do believe independents will be the determining factor should Romney pull out a victory in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan. Frankly, they’re going to decide Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire as well.  If they go in droves for Romney, a win could prove to be a decisive one.

“I believe, when I look at the intensity numbers, when I look at being on the road for three days with Governor Romney and the crowds, when I look at the undecideds, I believe that Governor Romney will not only win on Tuesday, I believe he could win decisively.”

I do think Plouffe hit on one other extremely important point here.  Four years ago, many of the states we’re now debating as “toss-ups” were solidly in the Obama camp.  Even though some Republicans went to bed Sunday and Monday night hoping for a positive result, most probably knew deep down that hope was about all they had to go on.

I’m a partisan, but I’m not a partisan blind to the facts.  Governor Romney has trailed for some time in many of the battleground polls and he’s still behind in many of those same polls.  A few appear to show a changing of the tides, but he’s still behind in most.  I understand the realities of sampling errors, sampling bias, and even the fact that most of Obama’s leads are within the margin of error.  That said, because the facts are what they are, I can’t say I’m overly optimistic about changing all the swing states to the Romney camp.  But I am optimistic he could pluck off a few of them – Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, maybe even Wisconsin.

The big picture reality here is this.  We have a very popular president – even though the majority of Americans believe his policies have done nothing to improve the general state of things.  The upside, he’s no where near as popular as he was four years ago.  In 2008, we were going to bed hoping for a miracle.  In 2012, we’re going to bed with absolutely no idea how at least seven states are going to go.

I’ll take that and put faith in the American People.