I find it interesting that all recent polls now have Obama and Romney exactly tied

It’s an insult to quackery to call polling quackery

The pollsters are now out to protect their reputations. So all the recent polls now suddenly have Mitt Romney and Barack Obama tied – EXACTLY tied.

A curious coincidence, don’t you think?

It wasn’t long ago that these polls were all over the map.  Now we see this mysterious and sudden convergence — just before their reliability can be checked against actual election results.

The truth is these pollsters have no idea what’s really happening, so they might as well call this election tied and protect their reputations.  Can’t be faulted for just saying what everyone else is saying.  So that’s what they’re doing.

As we have seen, polling really isn’t much of a science.  These polls are useless, always have been useless. You’ll get more truth by consulting your palm reader.

We see wild 10 point swings from one poll to another. National Journal last week had Obama up by five points, while Gallup had Romney up by five points . . . at the same time.

What’s the point of wasting time reading these polls where there is a 10 point variance between them?

These polls tell us there is a potential margin of error of between two and four points.

What use is that then for tracking a close race?

But it turns out there’s really a potential margin of error of at least ten points — since there’s a ten point difference between them.

Yet professional pundits base their commentaries on these bogus polls.

They say Romney is stumbling or Obama is surging because one poll shows a one or two point shift.

Dick Morris tells us Romney’s advantage is eroding because the Rasmussen poll now has Romney and Obama tied, instead of Romney two points up.  He attributes Romney’s so-called erosion to Hurricane Sandy.

Why?

Why isn’t it just statistical noise inherent in these tiny poll samples?

Most likely, Rasmussen is just protecting his reputation by calling this race now tied . . . because he has no more idea than anyone else what’s really happening out there.

Frankly, I wonder if these pollsters are really making the phone calls they say they are making to voters.  Why not just save the money and make up the numbers?

That would be just as useful.

Is anyone checking?

But even if they really are making these phone calls and talking to voters, we are assuming an entirely false precision to all these polls.

There’s simply no statistical possibility that a survey of 800 or 1,000 or 2,500 Americans can tell us within three percent or even five percent, with any reliability, what 130,000,000 voters are actually thinking now — much less how they will vote on Election Day.

Heck, we have no idea who will even vote in this election. That’s why the pollsters call these people “likely voters” and not “actual voters.”

And it really all comes down to that. Whose registered voters will actually show up to vote?

Pollsters are about as useful as witch doctors.  Why anyone would pay any attention to them is a mystery.

It’s insulting to pseudoscience and quackery to call polling pseudoscience or quackery.

But pollsters (like witch doctors) have to make a living, too. Now they have their reputations to protect so they can continue to make a living with their bogus craft.

The safest bet right now for these pollsters is to just call this race a tie. So that’s what they’re all doing.

The most reliable poll we have seen this year is the Wisconsin recall election involving Governor Scott Walker — when actual votes were cast (2.5 million actual votes).

Now that’s a representative polling sample in a heavily blue state. And it’s a great indicator of what’s really happening out there.

I’ve been basing my election predictions on that poll. What other poll do we really need?

What has fundamentally changed in the country since that recall election in June?

ANSWER: Nothing, except the economy is in even worse shape.  And the fiasco in Libya has happened since then. We also have a pretty good candidate in Mitt Romney.

Walker won the Wisconsin recall election by 7 points (in a solidly blue state) — about four points better than what the average of polls were saying during that final week.

I think it’s highly likely we will see a Wisconsin-sized polling error play itself out on Tuesday — with Mitt Romney winning by a comfortable margin.

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