Crimea Genie Cannot Be Put Back in the Bottle

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The Russian actions towards the Crimea happened for one reason: because there would be no real consequences.  So Russia will suffer some sanctions, get some bad press, and maybe have a diplomat or two expelled.

Big deal.

What Russia will gain is total control over the Crimea which is located in a very strategic area.  Russia will also send a powerful message to its former satellite states: don’t mess with us.

Russia lost out – badly – when countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, and the three Balkan nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania got away and joined the West.  Russia will not allow this to happen with any more nations like Georgia and the Ukraine.

There invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the “referendum” in the Ukraine will ensure they are not further isolated.

John Bolton wrote back in 2008
:

Europe’s rejection this spring of President Bush’s proposal to start Ukraine and Georgia towards Nato membership was the real provocation to Russia, because it exposed Western weakness and timidity. As long as that perception exists in Moscow, the risk to other former Soviet territories – and in precarious regions such as the Middle East – will remain.

Russia is always afraid of getting encircled. The French and British fought the Russians in the 19th century for control of the Crimea. Russia has fought numerous battles to preserve – and expand – its territory. Russia also wants to feel powerful (they have always had a chip on their shoulder regarding not measuring up to the West).

And what is to be done about it? President Obama – who gave SDI away to the Russians early in his term and threw Poland and the Czech Republic under the bus is going to do something?

Not even George W. Bush did much when Russia invaded Georgia towards the end of his term.

Putin wants a “free hand” in his nation’s zone of influence.

Sanctions be damned.

Russia has oil (lots of it), nukes, and a totalitarian past.

The West is fat, slow, and lazy.

Are we going to go to war for the Crimea?

Similar issues were faces back in the 1930s regarding the Sudetenland. Hitler invaded after he was given what he wanted and it didn’t stop there. He correctly judged the West as being corrupt and weak.

Obama does not radiate strength and Europe is too divided. Putin will keep on pushing until he hits something we do care about… let’s just hope it’s before the NATO alliance is tested and it comes to war.

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