Corona IMHE Models Are Wildly INACCURATE, Projected Hospitalizations and Deaths Do Not Reflect Reality

Check out the much cited and oft heralded “model” estimates of hospitalizations versus the actual hospitalization number flashed during Coumo’s daily presser midday. The gross discordance speaks for itself. And this model is much more conservative in terms of total US coronavirus deaths of ~80-84K

Also, what is the actual death rate of Coronavirus patients who did not have debilitating underlying diseases?

The media is not going to press these issues. They are going to do everything to prolong corona panic. Think about it. All Americans are being forced to stay home and watch the news. And the more dire their predictions,the more eyes.

Is that ever going to happen for them again?

Is it ever going to be this good for them again?

This is the @IMHE_UW model for #Covid_19, the new US standard. It was put out SIX days ago (post lockdown). It projects New York State will have 50,000 hospitalizations TODAY. Instead NYS has 12,000. Wrong by 4x in under a week. What on earth are we doing? https://t.co/zdRwaS4UJr pic.twitter.com/bRroolmKgw

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 1, 2020

Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

Update on the @IHME_UW model versus reality in New York STATE: reality is still winning. 56,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 ICU beds projected for April 2; 13,400 hospitalizations and 3,400 beds used. Reminder: this model was released ONE WEEK AGO. pic.twitter.com/OAzUfvi7zX

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

All projection data can be found here: https://t.co/rz4umy4afN.

All historical hospitalization data can be found here: https://t.co/Vw7OOOLbHC.

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 2, 2020

I can never tell what’s going to get attention. I wish this would. Let me rephrase: Oregon – a state of 4.2 million people – has shut down in order to, by ITS OWN PROJECTIONS, keep an average of two extra people a day from needing intensive care this month. https://t.co/pB0tYxGwgd

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

2/ Even more importantly, the state’s own prediction is now that it would face NO crisis even if the lockdown was lifted. By early May, all of Oregon would have ~90 people in ICU beds if all businesses reopened, as opposed to ~30 if the lockdown continued. See for yourself. pic.twitter.com/bgBSBEbeW2

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

Here’s San Francisco as of tonight – 800,000 people, 434 cases, 7 deaths. Looks as though new cases peaked several days ago. https://t.co/U23HZjF3mE

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

More “rigorous” U Wash Inst For Health Metrics model predicted 200 hospital bed covid19 occupancy for Rhode Island today, 4/1 https://t.co/9fPnjNohbs; actual occupancy is 60, more than 3-fold less https://t.co/KZO2h50WaQ pic.twitter.com/lniAHz0VtR

— Andrew Bostom (@andrewbostom) April 2, 2020

Back to Oregon: to keep those two people a day out of intensive care, Oregon has put 200,000+ people out of work (the real number is higher, this is official claims only, 76K last week, more this week). Some are already broke. Does this seem rational? https://t.co/rILB05xCKC

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

Meanwhile a fact accidentally crept into this panicked @nytimes article about LA hospitals: Cedars-Sinai, a huge tertiary care center, had 50 #COVID cases on 3/17 and 115 on 3/31. That’s an average increase of, yes, five a day. By the year 2100 it will have 140,000! pic.twitter.com/UNzWxXX1GG

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

So @CT_Bergstrom is one of the all-time panickers. Here he is suggesting the @IHME_UW model vastly *understated* the risks of #COVID. Hey Carl, now that the model has proven completely wrong in less than a week, care to give us an update? Asking for 10 million unemployed friends. https://t.co/N4SUOuPHYf

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020

Very informative thread. Explains why NY’s Covid 19 fatality numbers are inflated. They dont’t distinguish between those who die with the disease and those who die from it. https://t.co/Hbdud2ppSI

— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 1, 2020

It’s no secret – the scientific adviser to the Italian health minister said it to @Telegraph more than a week ago: “The way we come deaths in our country is very generous in that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.” https://t.co/IxfPRyE3TQ

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 2, 2020