Daily Weather Briefing for Sunday, May 17, 2020

OUTLOOK

Ridging aloft and a Bermuda High at the surface will support summerlike conditions again today. An unsettled and cooler pattern will commence on Monday as a large low-pressure system moves over the region and lingers through much of the week.

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General Forecast Through Sunday

Today

Mostly sunny, with highs ranging from the mid-70s to the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast 5 to 10 mph by midmorning.

Tonight

A chance of showers before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 4am, then a chance of showers after 4am. Partly cloudy, with lows ranging from around 60 to the lower 50s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph. The chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm with some of them possibly becoming strong or severe. Highs ranging from near 70 to the upper 70s. Calm winds increasing to come out of the south 5 to 10 mph by midmorning. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, some of them could be strong or severe, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from the mid-50s to the upper 40s. Light winds out of the southwest. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to the low-to-mid 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows ranging from about 50 to the upper 40s.

Hazards

Hazardous weather is not expected today. Monday, however…

A moist cold front will move through the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday will likely produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe and generate heavy downpours, very gusty winds, and large hail. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible with any thunderstorm.

Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Arthur, located over the western Atlantic Ocean off the east-central coast of Florida.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. Until then, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

Information on Tropical Storm Arthur

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Arthur has not changed much in organization overnight. The storm features a large curved convective band over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the low-level center appears to be exposed to the west of that band. The intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the cyclone around 12Z which should provide a good estimate of Arthur’s intensity.

Although Arthur will be crossing back over the Gulf Stream tonight and Monday, vertical shear is forecast to steadily increase during that time. With these counteracting influences on intensity change, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24-36 hours. The official forecast is close to the model consensus and is similar to the previous one. In 2-3 days, some strengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible, since the global models depict extratropical transition around that time.

Later in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients decrease.

The storm has been moving a little to the left of the previous estimates and the motion is now around 015/8 kt. An approaching mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward during the next 48 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, Arthur or its post-tropical remnants should turn eastward within a general westerly flow field. There has been a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the official forecast track. Since the new NHC forecast is now closer to the North Carolina Outer Banks, the Tropical Storm Watch has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for that area.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during the next few days. See products from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z…DISSIPATED

End Daily Weather Segment