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News and Weather Briefing for Wednesday, July 29, 2020

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OUTLOOK

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today as a frontal boundary moves into the area, and will remain high through the end of the week. This pattern should last into the weekend ahead of the next approaching system.

General Forecast Through Friday Night

Today

Widespread dense fog this morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3pm. Highs ranging from the low-to-mid 70s in the higher elevations to the low-to-mid 80s in the lower elevations. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

Patchy fog overnight, the areas of fog are expected to form after 4am. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 4am, then a chance of showers. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday

Areas of fog in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevations to the lower 80s in the higher elevations. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then showers likely. Lows in the 60s. Calm winds. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 70s in the higher elevation to the lower 80s in the lower elevations. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the 60s. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Hazards

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area this evening. The main threats will be heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning.

Air Quality

IMAGE

A strong H5 upper low will dig southeastward into Ontario today, propelling a weak surface cold front towards the Mid-Atlantic. While the front won’t cross the state today, the associated increased pressure gradient and piedmont trough along with height falls/PVA may be enough to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, Bermuda high pressure — which has been supplying an endless feed of clean maritime air for a significant portion of this month — has begun to edge eastward, resulting in a more continental source region for the air mass. This fact, combined with the likelihood of clouds/rain holding off until after 2 or 3 pm in the Charlotte region, and considering recent ozone trends since the air mass has become more continental-sourced, have led to an increase in the max 8 hr. ozone forecast into the low Code Yellow range for Mecklenburg County, where hourly ozone levels may quickly rise into the mid to even upper Code Yellow range for a few hours before clouds/storms and outflow boundaries likely lower values after 3 or 4pm.

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Tropical Weather
(The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th)

Tropical Tidbit from Levi Cowan




For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located near the Leeward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

Earlier wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and a recent 0038Z ASCAT-A overpass indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized since the previous advisory. There were indications of a circulation center located near the position estimate used in this advisory. However, there was a sharp cusp noted in the ASCAT wind field, and that was used for positioning the disturbance since it lies closest to the strong convective band and best upper-level divergence. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on several ASCAT wind vectors of 35-36 kt located well north of the center. The 35-kt intensity is also consistent with a 0000Z TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/22 kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain strong for the next 36-48 h, which keeps the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction across the Lesser Antilles tonight and Wednesday, and near or over the Greater Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday. For such a loosely organized system at this time, the models are in fairly good agreement on the large disturbance slowing down significantly after 48 h, reaching forward speeds of only 10-12 kt when it reaches the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida in 72-96 h. On days 4 and 5, the system is expected to slow even further and turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge that is expected to develop across Florida and the Bahamas.

The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial position, and lies along the southern portion of the guidance envelope near the middle of the consensus models. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.

The intensity forecast remains problematic for primarily two reasons: 1) the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field and 2) likely land interaction to some degree. In the short-term, a bonafide center could develop tonight in response to the expected development of intense convection caused by orographic forcing by the mountainous islands of the central and northern Leeward Islands. Once a center closes off, which has likely been inhibited from doing so due to the disturbance’s fast forward speed in excess of 20 kt, the low-level convergence will improve and convection will become more organized and symmetrical, allowing for strengthening to occur. The main question is how much land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation in the 36-48-hour period. Assuming the system remains intact after emerging off the coast of Hispaniola, the slow track over the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida would result in more strengthening, assuming the system doesn’t interact with the Cuban landmass. Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system’s impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor compared to land interaction. Due to aforementioned uncertainties, the new NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, and lies between the slightly weaker IVCN and stronger NOAA-HCCA consensus models. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
120H 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND



End Daily Weather Segment








Begin COVID-19 Update

Here are some numbers from the CDC, the NCDHHS, and the Johns Hopkins Dashboard. Macon Media prefers the Johns Hopkins Dashboard because the counts include those non-residents that are left out of the CDC and NCDHHS numbers.

The CDC website [LINK] reports 114,338 people in North Carolina are infected, 1,790 have died, and infections are widespread, the NCDHHS website [LINK] reports 116,087 confirmed cases from 1,663,540 targeted tests, and 1,244 hospitalized and 1,820 deaths in the state. The Johns Hopkins Dashboard [LINK] reports 116,700 people infected and 1,860 deaths.

North Carolina Coronavirus Map and Case Count [LINK] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-carolina-coronavirus-cases.html

Data from Macon County Public Health as of July 27th and graph by Macon Media of data from May 30th to July 27th [LINK

Please note there is a gap for Saturdays and Sundays starting two weekends ago since the health department will no longer be reporting numbers on those days.


445 Detected Cases (+4 in one day)
71 Active Positive (-23 in one day)
371 Recovered (-26 in one day)
3 Death (+1 in one day)

Testing Data for Macon County

4072 MCPH Tests (unchanged in one day)
1335 Tests by Others (+320 in one day)
5407 Total Tests (+320 in one day)
267 Tests Pending Results (-24 in one day)

And here is the weekly demographic report from Macon Public Health

Infographic from Johns Hopkins University [LINK]

Resources for Reliable Information about the Corona Virus (COVID-19) [LINK]

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Published at 5:00am Wednesday, July 29, 2020



Source: http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2020/07/wx20200729.html


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