I wonder if anyone will bother doing studies in US states with the strictest lockdowns, to see if the there are similar results
A new study by German scientists claims to have found evidence that lockdowns may have had little effect on controlling the coronavirus pandemic.
Statisticians at Munich University found “no direct connection” between the German lockdown and falling infection rates in the country.
Instead, the study found infection rates had already clearly begun to fall before a national lockdown was imposed last November.
It also found clear evidence the rate was already falling on the two occasions the lockdown was tightened, in December and April.
The study focused on the R number, which indicates how many people each infected person passes the virus to. The scientists argue it is less easily distorted by fluctuating test rates than the weekly infection rates used by the German government to decide lockdown restrictions.
The study found that on each occasion the R number was already under 1 before the new restrictions came into force, indicating that infections were falling. The lockdown has since been lifted across most of the country.
Perhaps the initial early 2020 lockdown made a difference: the study doesn’t seem to touch on that. But, the others were really not necessary.
The study was quickly seized on by lockdown opponents, but its authors were at pains to stress they were not making a political argument.
“You can’t tell from the data that the lockdown was unnecessary,” Prof Ralph Brinks, one of the study’s co-authors, told German television.
“All that it shows is that the start of lockdown and the fall in infections do not coincide.” Germany went into “lockdown lite”, with restaurants and bars closed but non-essential shops open, on November 2.
Interesting to see scientists saying they were not trying to be political, that the science speaks for itself. Rather rare these days. How much effect did the initial lockdown have in Germany? How about in the U.S. and other nations? Most people might have been stuck at home, but, they were still going to the grocery store and other essential places. Remember, we were told it would be 15 days. Why were so many who were at home getting it?
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