Weather Briefing for Independence Day, 2021

OUTLOOK

Temperatures and moisture will rebound early this week, with afternoon highs rising above normal Monday. Precipitation chances will gradually increase Tuesday through Thursday, when a trough of low pressure will approach from the west. Tropical Cyclone Elsa could also affect the region around that time, possibly enhancing the threat of heavy rainfall.

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National Weather Map for Today

General forecast through Tuesday Night

Franklin area

Today

Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows in the upper 50s. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with highs in the upper 80s. Light and variable winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 30%.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Chance of rain is 20%.

Highlands Plateau

Today

Sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows in the upper 50s. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 30%.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 30%.

Otto area

Today

Patchy fog before midmorning. Otherwise, sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Light and variable winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30%.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 20%.

Nantahala area

Today

Sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with lows around 60. Calm winds.

Monday

Sunny, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Calm winds.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Calm winds.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 20%.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 20%.

HAZARDS

Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 4 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located just over one hundred miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

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Elsa Weaker; Significant Impacts Still Expected in Cuba, Florida, and Southeast U.S. (recorded July 3rd)

Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021

Elsa is undergoing a convective bursting pattern the past few hours, with some cold overshooting tops of -90 deg C east and northeast of the center. However, data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that this convective increase has not translated into an intensity increase. To the contrary, 5000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds have decreased while the central pressure has increased to 1004 mb. Based on the latest recon data, the intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The aircraft has now climbed to 10,000 ft for safety reasons and will be penetrating the area of intense convection to check for stronger winds there.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/15 kt. Elsa is forecast to gradually move around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the next 96 hours, accompanied by an additional decrease in forward speed. The latest model guidance has continued to converge along the previous advisory track, with the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE nearly on top of each other. The TCVA simple consensus model is also similar to the HCCA and FSSE models. However, out of respect for the slightly more westward GFS and GFS-ensemble models, which have performed admirably thus far with Elsa, the new official forecast lies a tad west of the aforementioned consensus models and lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track.

After interacting with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti, which could have caused some disruption in the low-level field despite the center remaining offshore, little change in intensity is expected tonight. However, some slight restrengthening could occur by Sunday afternoon as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba where the sea-surface temperatures are quite warm at more than 30 deg C and the water is deep. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves across west-central Cuba, followed again by some slight restrengthening after Elsa emerges over the warm Gulf Stream in the Straits of Florida. Westerly vertical wind shear increasing to near 20 kt by 96 hours should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. Elsa should become a very asymmetrical tropical cyclone late on day 3 and on day 4 with most of the heavy rain and strongest winds displaced along and to the east of the forecast track. The initial intensity is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the simple and corrected consensus models.

Given the remaining uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Haiti and Jamaica tonight into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday.

3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the Florida Keys. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa’s progress and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.9N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.2N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 22.5N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 24.1N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 26.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 28.0N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 32.7N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
120H 09/0000Z 37.7N 74.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER

Air Quality

Air quality is in the middle range of yellow for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the middle range of yellow.

Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)

Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (3.3 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low-medium range (3.5 out of 12).

Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 2nd

Highest Temperature 96°F in Franklin in 1948
Lowest Temperature 46°F in Highlands in 1996
Greatest Rainfall 4.46 inches in Highlands in 2013
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)