Weather Briefing for Tuesday, July 6, 2021
OUTLOOK
Continued warmer and more humid conditions are expected today. Rain chances will increase more sharply Wednesday through Thursday, as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west, and moisture from Tropical Cyclone Elsa possibly passes through or near the region. An active mid-summertime pattern will develop by the weekend as the synoptic pattern becomes more amplified with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day by this weekend and into the early part of next week.
Local News Update
(National News is published after the Macon Calendar section)
2021 Fireworks Display in Franklin, NC [LINK]
Bob Scott Announces Retirement
PRESS RELEASE (07-06-2021) BOB SCOTT, MAYOR OF FRANKLIN
It’s time for me to pack up my bust of Harry Truman and my “No Sniveling” desk plaque and move on. I will not be seeking a fifth term as mayor.
Most politicians bow out saying “to spend more time with family.” Which is code for getting out before an indictment or a scandal breaks. Not me. I am just too darn old. Franklin needs a new mayor.
I would have run again, but Council Member Jack Horton has filed to run for mayor. Jack is qualified and well known across the state. I can leave knowing that if elected, Franklin will be in good hands with Jack.
I will be gone in three months from Town Hall. I will leave knowing I had little support from some other politicians in trying to save our hospital from a for profit company. A huge disappointment. There were other ideas I had which were blocked, for whatever reason, in the last two terms I have served.
I do hope to get the skate park in place. Turn the Sunnyside property into public use with recreation facilities, and use federal relief funds to improve our infrastructure.
I campaigned on open government. In my four terms, the town got away from being a “who you know” town. It is now a “what you know” town. We have professionalized Franklin’s government. We are a town we can all be proud of. Our employees deserve the credit. Not me.
We have had very few closed meetings during my time as mayor. My philosophy has been one of instead of finding a reason to go behind closed doors find a reason to keep the doors open. I always have believed the mayor and town council exists for only one reason. To conduct the public’s business.
I hope the Town Council will keep working to preserve the fascination which makes Franklin a delightful place in which to live and work.
The toughest year of my service has been the year of the pandemic. Mayors across the nation became the lightning rod for anger and frustration. I certainly was. On social media I was called unique expletives I did not know existed. But on the other hand, I have had folks who understood town government. There was more support than anger. In looking back, I adopted the understanding that people were angry, scared and facing hardships. As mayor, I was a convenient politician to jump on. I was accessible. I answer my phone. You can catch me ambling along our sidewalks.
I do have some future plans. I have hobbies I have neglected. I will return to writing and photography. America is in serious danger as Democracy is in peril. I will find some way to express my contempt of authoritarianism.
Please never allow Franklin to become partisan. We are just fine as a non-partisan unit. Please fight to keep it non-partisan from those who want to change it for political power.
Does anyone have a small backhoe I can borrow to clean out my office? I need it by the first Tuesday in November. It has been a hoot to serve as mayor. My high school teachers would be astounded.
Mayor Bob Scott Town of Franklin, NC
Vet’s Portrait Project for 2021
NC Dept of Justice Releases May 2021 Highlights [LINK]
National Weather Map for Today
General forecast through Wednesday Night
Franklin area
Today
Areas of fog before midmorning. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Light winds out of the southeast. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low-to-mid 60s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the low-to-mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Highlands Plateau
Today
Sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Light winds out of the south. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Winds out of the northeast 3 to 5 mph. Chance of rain is 60%.
Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely before midafternoon, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers between 2am and 5am. Lows around 60. Chance of rain is 80%.
Otto area
Today
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Isolated showers before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 2am. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11am. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with highs near 80. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Highs near 80. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 9pm, then a chance of showers between 9pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 65. Chance of rain is 60%.
Nantahala area
Today
Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday Night
Isolated showers between 7pm and 8pm. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 20%.
Wednesday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 11am. Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%.
Thursday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Highs in the mid-70s. Chance of rain is 80%.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
HAZARDS
Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Elsa, located over west-central Cuba.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
b>TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media’s favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to “make them more exciting.” He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]
Elsa to Cross Cuba During Late Monday, Approach Florida on Tuesday (recorded July 5th)
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
Radar data from Cuba and Key West, Florida, along with surface observations, indicate that the center of Elsa is back over water, having emerged off the northern coast of of Cuba around 0200 UTC. Doppler velocity data from the NOAA WSR-88D at Key West indicate values of around 55 t at 10,000 ft, which supports equivalent surface winds of 49 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft flying just offshore the north coast of Cuba over deep water measured reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 50 kt. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 50 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Just like over the past three days, no significant changes have been made to the previous track forecast or synoptic reasoning. Elsa is now moving north-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge whose axis extends westward across the Atlantic to central Florida. The cyclone should gradually move around the ridge over the next 36 hours, turning northward on Tuesday and then north-northeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. By late Wednesday, Elsa should accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough and frontal system, moving across the eastern United States to near Atlantic Canada. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, but was nudged slightly eastward due to the more eastward initial position, and lies a tad east of of the various tightly clustered track consensus models.
Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 36 hours, with some of the SHIPS and global models showing Elsa possibly reaching 60 kt just before landfall along the northwestern Florida peninsula. This would typically require a Hurricane Watch for a small portion of northwest Florida. However, given that Elsa has been hugging a very tight mid-level moisture gradient — a condition that is expected to continue until landfall occurs in about 36 hours — the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and holds the peak intensity at 55 kt due to expected intermittent dry-air intrusions. Subsequent NHC forecasts can assess the new reconnaissance and model data that will be coming in later tonight, and determine if an increase in the intensity forecast and the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning is required. By 96 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will merge with a frontal zone, so the new intensity forecast continues to shows extratropical transition at that time.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys, Florida Peninsula, and southeast Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rains across coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning has been issued for that area.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba tonight, and spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast through Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions along portions of the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 23.5N 82.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 24.9N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 26.9N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.2N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 08/1200Z 34.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 36.9N 76.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 10/0000Z 43.3N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/0000Z 50.5N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Air Quality
Air quality is in the middle range of yellow for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the middle range of yellow.
Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low-medium range (3.1 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low range (2.4 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 6th
Highest Temperature 93°F at the Coweeta Experimental Station in 2012
Lowest Temperature 45°F in Highlands in 1915
Greatest Rainfall 4.00 inches in Nantahala in 1959
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)
July Weather Extremes for Macon County
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1872
Macon Calendar
The Macon County Art Association (a not for profit member organization) is offering classes in encaustic painting on Specified Fridays from 10AM-12PM at the Uptown Gallery 30 E Main St Franklin NC. Specific class dates are Friday July 9 and 23, August 3 and 27, September 3 and 17, October 29.
For more information contact the instructor, Karen Smith, at [email protected]
National News Update
Source: http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/wx20210706.html
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