Weather Briefing for Wednesday, July 7, 2021
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OUTLOOK
Rain chances will increase more sharply tonight and remain elevated for the first half of Thursday, as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west, and Tropical Cyclone Elsa passes through Georgia and the Carolinas. An active mid-summertime pattern will develop by the weekend with a chance for showers and pulse thunderstorms each day into the early part of next week.
National Weather Map for Today
General forecast through Friday Night
Franklin area
Today
Isolated showers between 7am and 1pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs near 80. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Highlands Plateau
Today
Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, cloudy, with lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and noon, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Partly cloudy, with lows around 60. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s. Winds out of the northwest 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows around 60. Chance of rain is 60%.
Otto area
Today
Isolated showers, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower 80s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Winds out of the southeast around 5 mph becoming calm before midnight. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs near 80. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly around 3am. Partly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the northwest. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds out of the northwest 3 to 6 mph. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Nantahala area
Today
Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 5am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday
A chance of showers before 10am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Light winds out of the southwest. Chance of rain is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Calm winds in the morning increasing to come out of the west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain is 60%.
Friday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11pm, then a chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with lows in the mid-60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
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Hazards and Tropical Weather
Hazardous Weather is not anticipated today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Elsa, located about 60 miles west of Tampa, Florida.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
b>TROPICAL TIDBITS
Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media’s favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to “make them more exciting.” He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.
Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]
Elsa to Cross Cuba During Late Monday, Approach Florida on Tuesday (recorded July 5th)
Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
After an earlier flurry of convective bursting and even the development of a eye in radar imagery, Elsa appears to have leveled off over the past couple of hours. Between 2100 UTC and 0000 UTC, WSR-88D radars from Tampa and Key West indicated areas of average Doppler velocities of 75-85 kt between 8000-13,000 ft, which were co-located with convective bands consisting of 50 dBZ and higher reflectivity values, which equates to at least 65 kt surface winds. Elsa’s center also passed just barely to the east of Buoy 41023 around 2100 UTC, producing a sustained wind of 49 kt at 3-meters elevation, which equals a 10-meter wind speed of 55 kt on the west side of the cyclone. The strongest 850-mb flight-level wind measured by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft so far has been 74 kt. However, radar data indicate that the aircraft just missed the strongest winds in the convection by only about 5 n mi. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt just in case convection redevelops around the ragged eye feature later tonight.
Elsa is moving northward, or 360/12 kt. This motion should continue tonight and early Wednesday until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by late Wednesday, followed by some acceleration toward the northeast on Thursday as Elsa rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge and gets caught up by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast lies between the simple and corrected-consensus tracks models and the previous NHC track forecast.
Elsa’s inner-core convection looks pretty ragged right now, but the vertical structure has improved based on the reconnaissance data, which indicate that the low-, middle- and upper-level circulations are nearly vertically stacked now. Elsa’s ragged eye feature along with the very warm water beneath the cyclone and the upcoming nocturnal convective maximum period could combine to allow convection to redevelop. However, proximity to dry mid-level air just to the west should prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to increased frictional effects and Elsa’s small size. The pressure gradient, however, is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase between Elsa and a sprawling surface high pressure system over the western Atlantic, which should act to increase the winds to tropical storm force near the coastal areas from Georgia to North Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity models HCCA and IVCN.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions southwest Florida and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through Wednesday morning.
4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple of days, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 27.3N 83.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 29.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 31.4N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
36H 08/1200Z 33.9N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 36.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/1200Z 39.3N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 42.8N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH…OVER WATER
96H 11/0000Z 51.0N 54.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z…DISSIPATED
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Almanac
Air Quality
Air quality is in the lower range of yellow for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the lower range of yellow.
Fire and Smoke Map
(There are no significant sources of smoke in the region as of 3am on 04-22-2021.)
Pollen levels are expected to be in the low range (2.0 out of 12) today with Grasses, Plantain, and Dock being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the low range (0.5 out of 12).
Weather Extremes for Macon County on July 6th
Highest Temperature 96°F in Franklin in 1990
Lowest Temperature 47°F in Highlands in 1918
Greatest Rainfall 5.37 inches in Highlands in 1941
Greatest Snowfall (No snowfall recorded on this date since records started being kept in 1872)
July Weather Extremes for Macon County
Highest Temperature 101°F in Franklin on 07-29-1952
Lowest Temperature 34°F in Highlands on 07-27-1911
Greatest Rainfall 21.15 inches in Highlands on 07-29-1879
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1872
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Macon Calendar
(send your event to [email protected])
The Macon County Art Association (a not for profit member organization) is offering classes in encaustic painting on Specified Fridays from 10AM-12PM at the Uptown Gallery 30 E Main St Franklin NC. Specific class dates are Friday July 9 and 23, August 3 and 27, September 3 and 17, October 29.
For more information contact the instructor, Karen Smith, at [email protected]
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National News Roundup
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Published at 5:00am on Wednesday, July 07, 2021
Source: http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/wx20210707.html
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