News and Weather Briefing for Tuesday, August 17, 2021

An edited version will be published later this morning.

Local Forecast

Franklin area

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 75. East wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tonight

Showers, mainly before 11pm. Patchy fog. Low around 68. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming southwest around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog. High near 69. East southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.

Tonight

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then a chance of showers between 1am and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Areas of fog. Low around 62. South southwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4pm. Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 76. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a chance of rain, mainly between 11pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday

A chance of rain before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Otto area

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog. High near 75. East southeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Areas of fog. Low around 67. South wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 84. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming north northwest in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 11pm, then a slight chance of rain after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday

A chance of rain before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Nantahala area

Showers likely before 7am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 7am and 11am, then showers after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog. High near 72. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Showers, mainly before 11pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Areas of fog. Low around 67. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Wednesday

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a slight chance of showers between 10pm and 11pm, then a slight chance of rain after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday

A chance of rain before 9am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Isolated tornadoes are possible across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Watch
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING…

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, including the following areas, in northeast Georgia, Elbert and Hart. In western North Carolina, Burke Mountains, Caldwell Mountains, Graham, Greater Caldwell, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, McDowell Mountains, Polk Mountains, Rutherford Mountains, Southern Jackson, Swain and Transylvania. In upstate South Carolina, Anderson, Greater Pickens, Greenville Mountains, Greenwood, Pickens Mountains and Spartanburg.

* From Midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday morning.

* Tropical moisture has set up over the region in advance of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Fred, and moisture will continue to increase across the region through Tuesday and into Tonight with Fred`s northward passage along the southern Appalachians. Heavy showers, and then thunderstorms, will become increasingly widespread and these will have the potential to produce excessive rainfall during this period. New rainfall amounts will vary widely, ranging from 2 to 3 inches in the lower Piedmont, to 3 to 5 inches across the foothills, to 5 to 8 inches in many mountain locations. Isolated 8 to 10 inch totals will be possible along the favored upslope areas of the eastern slopes of the extreme southern Appalachians.

* This very heavy rainfall will push many streams, creeks, and rivers out of their banks and likely flood some roadways. Deep ponding of water of in low-lying and poor drainage areas may also flood some roadways. Landslides may develop along steeply sloped terrain, with trees sometimes falling in these zones well after the rainfall ends.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Be prepared to move to higher ground if flooding affects your location. Do not attempt to drive through any flooded roadways.

Rainfall of more than five inches in similar storms has been associated with an increased risk of landslides and rockslides. If you live on a mountainside or in a cove at the base of a mountain, especially near a stream, be ready to leave in advance of the storm or as quickly as possible should rising water, moving earth, or rocks threaten. Consider postponing travel along mountain roads during periods of heavy rainfall.

TROPICAL IMAGE

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located over southeastern Alabama, on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Grace, located between southwestern Haiti and Jamaica, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located over 100 miles south-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred’s circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians.

Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance.

Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0000Z…DISSIPATED

Published at 5:15am on Tuesday, August 17, 2021