Farmer got into quite a donnybrook with Constitutional Insurgent and Thought Criminal over who’s to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I stayed out and watched, but today I’ll throw some gasoline on the fire, and hopefully keep the fight going. I’ll chime in with my two cents and invite you all to do so as well.
Russia is to Blame: Putin’s invasion is a baldfaced rape of another nation.
What Contributed? Had western powers taken different actions over the past 30 years, could this have been avoided?
Nuance-Free Zone
First, a lot of nuance is being overlooked. We can acknowledged Russia is a bad actor while also acknowledging there is a logic to what they are doing, and they take actions based upon their national interests (twisted and misguided as they might be by our lights.)
We can agree Putin is a horrible person who hates the US and Europe and would destroy us if he could. Dismissing him at the same time (as many wishful thinkers in government and the press have done) is stupid and irresponsible.
NATO nations have taken the dumbest combination of actions possible since the wall fell:
* Western Leadership swallowed Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History” hook, line and sinker and have been sleepwalking for the past 30 years, displaying a dangerous and naive cornucopia of malfeasance, ignorance, cupidity, stupidity, and pie-in-the-sky happythink.
* Europe made itself vulnerably dependent on Russian oil, gas and other natural resources, supposedly with the hope of bringing Russia into the family of nations that respects international norms. That failed. Due to Western diplomatic bumbling and wishful thinking? Or Russian intransigence?
If Europe saw this gambit failing, why did they continue sucking Vlad’s gas pipe? Wishful thinking is what Europeans do best.
* NATO nations did the most ass-backwards thing: They talked crap and encouraged Ukraine to talk crap, while denying Ukraine NATO membership.
* We encouraged Georgia and Ukraine to get cocky with a very big and very dangerous neighbor, and the bear took a bite out of both of them while we stood by and watched. What the hell was our goal with those nations?
* Once again, we have taught dangerous and malignant regimes worldwide a very important lesson: If you have nukes, you have wide latitude to attack others.
* It is becoming clear that Ukraine became a very lucrative cash cow for well-connected westerners, with us running business consulting and gatekeeping out of the US embassy in Kiev.
Pointing all this out does not mean I want Russia to win. I want Ukraine to kick their asses back to Moscow, while knowing that is damn near impossible.
Once again, we have a big mess on our hands that smarter people could have avoided or ameliorated. Pardon my dissent, but I expect a higher level of thinking from Western “leaders,” especially the US foreign policy establishment.
My Predictions:
I predict the war will drag out, with a mumbly, lacunae-infested fizzle, status quo ante, with Russia still informally controlling the pace of events in the east, while Ukraine retains nominal sovereignty. Europeans will mouth sanctimonious platitudes while doing nothing.
Five years from now, Germany and Europe will be importing Russian gas and oil, and will be enjoying pre-war Nato spending levels.
More importantly, what say you?
Source:
http://alwaysonwatch3.blogspot.com/2022/04/ukraine-predictions.html
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