News and Weather Briefing for Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Hazardous weather is not expected fortoday or tonight,

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022
For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located just southeast of the Turks and Caicos islands.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to increase in association with an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less conducive later this week. The system should generally move northward or northeastward while remaining over the open waters of central subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

HURRICANE FIONA

Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt. Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt.

The hurricane’s outflow is somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the 24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start the system’s extratropical transition. The process is forecast to be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours, Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday.

3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

What’s Up in the Tropics with Mark Sudduth – September 19, 2022: Tracking Hurricane Fiona

TROPICAL TIDBITS

Tropical Tidbits is a website run by Macon Media’s favorite no-nonsense tropical forecaster, Levi Cowan. He does not post material just to get clicks or to sensationalize the storms he covers to “make them more exciting.” He is reliable and sober, unlike The Weather Channel crowd of Drama Queen Meteorologists.

Levi typically posts videos late in the afternoon or early before midnight on Youtube. [Youtube Channel]

[Monday / Sept 19] Hurricane Fiona moving toward the Turks and Caicos Islands

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Almanac

24 Hour Smoke Forecast

Air quality is in the lower range of green for most of the county, with the ridges and other higher elevations today being in the lower range of green.

Fire and Smoke Map
Local Air Monitor

Pollen

Pollen levels are expected to be in the medium-high range 8.2 out of 12) today with Ragweed, grasses, and Chenopods Grasses being the main culprits. Tomorrow is expected to be in the medium-high range (7.9 out of 12).

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Record Weather Events for September 19th

Record weather events for this date in Macon County
(1872-2016)

Highest Temperature 95°F in Highlands in 1925
Lowest Temperature 31°F in Highlands in 1903
Greatest Rainfall 4.95 inches in Highlands in 1924

Highest Temperature 98°F in Franklin on 09-04-1975
Lowest Temperature 27°F in Franklin on 09-30-1967
Greatest Rainfall 11.87 inches in Highlands on 09-27-1964
Greatest Snowfall no measurable snowfall has been recorded since records started being kept in 1873

Weather Extremes for North Carolina for the month of September Data available from 1870 to 2018

Highest Temperature 108°F Belhaven, Beaufort County 09-25-1921
Lowest Temperature 23°F Marion, McDowell County 09-28-2000
Greatest One-Day Rainfall 21.00 in Wilmington, New Hanover County 09-17-2018

Monthly Averages

Warmest Weather Station 75.4°F Morehead City, Carteret County
Coldest Weather Station 55.0°F Mount Mitchell, Yancey County
Wettest Weather Station 8.93 in Southport, Brunswick County
Driest Weather Station 2.94 in Marshall, Madison County

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Macon Calendar
(send your event to [email protected])

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• Lowe’s to pay $700,000 to women in sex harassment discrimination settlement with EEOC [Raleigh News and Observer]

• NC child suicides continue to rise, state data shows [WRAL-TV (Raleigh, NC)]

• Haywood County Schools to consider sports participation for homeschooled students [WLOS-TV (Asheville, NC)]

• ‘Disruption’ is just the start of a shift in storytelling at the Museum of the Cherokee Indian [BPR News]

• Sylva Extends Social District Hours

• Macon County Board of Commissioners – September 2022 Regular Meeting [Macon Media]

• Franklin Town Council – September 2022 Regular Meeting [Macon Media]

• Franklin Town Council – Special Called Meeting for August 30, 2022 [Macon Media]

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Special Section: The Death of Queen Elizabeth II
(sharing of a particular source is not an endorsement)
(Today is the last day this special ection will run. This is a special section to allow readers to discover original documentation and read/view news coverage of The Passing of Queen Elizabeth II)

JOMINI OF THE WEST MAP (UTVD Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in Kharkiv, 10-12 Sep 22.)

1/ UTW – Operational Update: ZSU Counter Offensive in the Donbas, 04-10 Sep. The ZSU is engaged in what may likely become the most stunningly successful counteroffensive since the IDFs OPERATION GAZELLE during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. #ukrainecounteroffensive #UkraineWillWin pic.twitter.com/nrC8cg02ia

— Jomini of the West (@JominiW) September 10, 2022

• Russia-Ukraine updates: Top US general says war ‘not going well’ for Moscow [DW News]

• Vladimir Putin’s Energy War With Europe Seems to Falter [WSJ Article with Playable Video] [WSJ Unlocked Article]

• Zelenskyy promises no let up in counter-offensive against Russia [Al Jazeera]

• UN chief Antonio Guterres: ‘I hope the ICC can investigate Izium’ [France 24]

• Russian retreat in Ukraine leaves Putin under pressure at home [NBC News via Yahoo! News]

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News from Russian or pro-Russian outlets or Video About the Russian Perspective

• US tanks ‘absolutely on the table’ for Ukraine – Pentagon [Russia Today]

• The clock is ticking: USA will forget about Ukraine very soon [Pravda ]

• Erdogan tells PBS Russia willing to end conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible [TASS Russian News Agency]

Sep 7, 2022 | Eastern Economic Forum plenary session | kremlin

The Ukraine War From Russia’s Perspective

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National and World News Roundup

Hurricane Fiona continues destructive path through Caribbean | ABC News

Global National: Sept. 19, 2022 | Queen Elizabeth II laid to rest in solemn ceremony

Nightly News Full Broadcast (September 19th)

PBS NewsHour full episode, September 19, 2022

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• Yes, the Great Books Make Us Better People [New York Times]

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COVID-19 News and Updates

Here is a section on COVID-19. It includes local, regional, state, national, and global items.

COVID-19 Numbers for Macon County:

• Ethereum Plunges After SEC Chair Says ‘The Merge’ Could Make Crypto a Security [Gizmodo]

• US-China semiconductor battle: Second and third order consequences [TechSpot]

• SpaceX’s Starship Super Heavy rocket just fired up 7 engines for the 1st time (video) [Space.com]

• China has returned helium-3 from the moon, opening door to future technology [The Hills]

• Google loses appeal over E.U. antitrust ruling, but fine is cut to $4.12 billion [NBC News]

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Podcasts and Long Form Videos (History, Culture, Science, Space, Technology and Current Events)
Anything covering educational, entertainment, history, current events, and technology topics

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On This Day

September 20 is the 263rd day of the year (264th in leap years) in the Gregorian calendar; 102 days remain until the end of the year.

Historical Events

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Published at 3:30am on Tuesday, September 20, 2022
Author: Bobby Coggins

Resources used to compile the information in this article include, but are not limited to the following websites or books: MaconMedia.com, youtube.com, weather.gov, airnow.gov, wikipedia.com, onthisday.com, ncdcr.gov, ncsu.edu, utah.edu, https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/, wolfram.com, biorxiv.org, aps.org, nejm.org, plos.org, cell.com, researchsquare.com, cureus.com, spc.noaa.gov, nhc.noaa.gov, ncdenr.org, medrxiv.org, archive.org, ncpedia.org, nasa.gov, https://ww2days.com, nih.gov, carolinapublicpress.org, microbe.tv, smokymountainnews.com, psypost.org, blogspot.com, pollen.com, franklinnc.com, maconnc.org, spaceweather.com, solarham.com, loc.gov, ncleg.net, senate.gov, house.gov, whitehouse.gov, drudgereport.com, politico.com, realclearpolitics.com, ushmm.org, This Day in North Carolina History, World War II Day By Day, The Holocaust Encyclopedia, The Timetables of History, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, The World History and Book of Facts (multiple years), On This Day In History: Over 4,000 facts, The NASA Archives. 60 Years in Space, This Day in North Carolina History, The Smithsonian History of Space Exploration: From the Ancient World to the Extraterrestrial Future, Spaceflight, 2nd Edition: The Complete Story from Sputnik to Curiousity, The Story of Civilization (11 volumes), The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, American History, Volume 1: 1492-1877, American History, Volume 2: 1877 – Present, A Complete Chronolgy of the Second World War. Weather and Almanac data and information sources: Sources (except where otherwise credited): heavens-above.com, Ian Webster’s Github, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, The National Weather Service, National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, National Hurricane Center, Penn State University Electronic Wall Map, The State Climate Office of North Carolina, Storm Prediction Center, U.S. Naval Observatory, University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences, and the Weather Prediction Center. Back to Top

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