Most Recent Palestinian Poll: Over Half Would Vote For HAMAS

Most recent Palestinian polling data show overwhelming preference for the Hamas terror organization.  1270 adults face-face interviews, 6/7-11/23, confirm public preference for Hamas over Fatah: Hamas +10% over Fatah in “deserving to represent the people”; Hamas leader Haniyeh +23% over Fatah’s Abbas to be President.

When asked about the best thing that happened to the ‘Palestinians’ since the establishment of Israel,  a quarter believed that the formation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and their entry into armed struggle.

When asked about the recent armed confrontations between the Gaza Strip and Israel…..Hamas’s popularity was not damaged in either the West Bank or the Gaza Strip.

For those who believe ordinary Gazans did not support Hamas in the horrific #October7Massacre in south Israel, here is part of the mob that followed them in that day.#HamasisISIShttps://t.co/FSh3YpwNFq pic.twitter.com/CUe3o91uVr

— Imshin (@imshin) October 17, 2023

• 69% want elections to take place but 67% do not expect that to happen
• In elections between president Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh [Hamas], Haniyeh wins 56% and Abbas 33%
• Satisfaction with Abbas stands at 17% and 80% want him to resign
• In parliamentary elections, Hamas receives 34% of the popular vote and Fateh 31%
• 31% say Hamas deserve to represent the Palestinian people and 21% say Fateh led by Abbas deserves to do that 
• 46% believe that Hamas’ victory in student elections at Birzeit and An-Najah universities reflects public attitudes Palestinian in the West Bank

A majority of 69% say it supports the holding of presidential and legislative elections in the Palestinian territories in the near future while 28% say they do not support that. Demand for elections stands at 77% in the Gaza Strip and 63% in the West Bank. However, a majority of 67% believes no legislative, or legislative and presidential, elections will take place soon. If new presidential elections were held today and only two were nominated, Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, only 46% would participate and from among those, Abbas would receive 33% and Haniyeh 56% of the votes (compared to 52% for Haniyeh and 36% for Abbas three months ago). In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 30% of the votes and Haniyeh receives 65%. In the West Bank, Abbas receives 37% and Haniyeh 47%. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, participation would increase to 61% and from among those, Barghouti receives 57% and Haniyeh 38%. If the competition is between Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh and Haniyyeh, participation rate would decrease to 43% and from among those, the former receives 28% and the latter 61%.

Most recent Palestinian polling data, 1270 adults face-face interviews, 6/7-11/23, confirm public preference for Hamas > Fatah: Hamas +10% over Fatah in “deserving to represent the people”; Hamas leader Haniyeh +23% over Fatah’s Abbas to be President https://t.co/79WMAHqahc

— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) October 17, 2023

By: PCR, 7-11 June 2023

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 7 and 11 June 2023. The period before the conduct of the poll witnessed several important developments including the passing of 75 years since Nakba and the rocket exchange between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Hamas’ student body, the Islamic Bloc won student elections at Birzeit University and al Najah University. In a speech at the UN, president Abbas asked for international protection for the Palestinian people. In Israel, widespread demonstrations by the opposition to the Israeli government judicial reforms continued while in the West Bank violent confrontations between Palestinian armed groups and the Israeli army led to increased exposure to violence. Regionally, an Iranian-Saudi rapprochement create shock waves throughout the Middle East. This press release addresses these issues and covers other matters such as the general conditions in the Palestinian territories, the peace process and future possible directions for Palestinians in the absence of a viable peace process. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is +/-3%.

Main Findings:

This poll examines the 75th anniversary of the Nakba. Findings indicate that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians blame Arab or international parties or the Zionist movement for the Nakba, while internal Palestinian weakness comes at the bottom of the list. Although this outcome was expected, the small percentage that saw Palestinian weakness as responsible for the Nakba indicates the persistence of a huge Palestinian sense of victimhood. However, when asked about the most damaging developments since the Nakba, the largest percentage referred to internal division, the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, while the Israeli 1967 occupation came in the second place. When asked about the best thing that happened to the Palestinians since the Nakba, about two-thirds listed two: the establishment of the PLO in the 1960s and the establishment of the PA in the 1990s, while a quarter believed that the formation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and their entry into armed struggle in the 1980s was the best development followed by those who selected the formation of Fatah in the 1960s and its launch of armed struggle.

Findings also indicate that about two-thirds of the public do not fear a repeat of the Nakba. To the contrary, two-thirds of the public do not believe that Israel will celebrate its centenary, and a majority, albeit a small one, believes that the Palestinian people will, in the future, be able to recover Palestine and return its refugees to their homes.

The results of the second quarter of 2023 also indicate a decline in the popularity of Fatah and President Abbas in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip, accompanied by a decline in satisfaction with the president’s performance, especially in light of his recent speech at the United Nations. The increased dissatisfaction led to greater demand for Abbas’ resignation, reaching 80%. The PA’s standing is also worsening, with the percentage of those who believe that its continued existence is in Israel’s interest increasing by six percentage points in three months while half of the public says that the collapse or dissolution of the PA serves the Palestinian interest.

We asked about the recent armed confrontations between the Gaza Strip and Israel. Although a small percentage of the Palestinian public believed that Hamas did not participate or participated to a small extent in these confrontations, Hamas’s popularity was not damaged in either the West Bank or the Gaza Strip.

We explored attitudes on the peace process. Support for the two-state solution remains as low as it was three months ago. So does the support for the one-state solution with equal rights for Palestinians and Israeli Jews. We also asked about the most effective way to end the Israeli occupation. Although the majority still sees armed struggle as the best way to achieve this goal, this percentage has fallen by three points compared to three months ago. Expectations of a third intifada have also dropped dramatically in the West Bank, falling by 15 points.

Findings show that a quarter of the public views the pro judiciary protest demonstrations in Israel with admiration, with the largest percentage saying that the Israeli judicial system is independent while the Palestinian judiciary is subordinate to the president or the government. In comparing the two judicial systems, the Palestinian and the Israeli, only one-fifth of the Palestinian public believes that the Palestinian judiciary is independent of the executive branch.[….]

3) Armed escalation and a third intifada:

• 71% support the formation of armed groups
• 86% say the PA does not have the right to arrest members of these armed groups
• 58% believe that armed groups will spread to the rest of the West Bank
• 51% expect a third intifada

71% of the public (79% in the Gaza Strip and 66% in the West Bank) say they are in favor of forming armed groups such as the “Lions’ Den” and the “Jenin Battalion,” which do not take orders from the PA and are not part of the PA security services; 23% are against that.  Support for the formation of armed groups increases in the Gaza Strip (79%) compared to the West Bank (66%), in refugee camps and cities (85% and 72% respectively) compared to villages (61%), among those whose age is between 18 and 22 years (77%) compared to those whose age is 40 years and above (69%), among refugees (78%) compared to non-refugees (66%), among holders of BA degree (77%) compared to those with primary education (70%), among students (80%) compared to merchants (50%), among the unmarried (76%) compared to the married (70%) among the religious (76%) compared to the somewhat religious (68%), and among supporters of Hamas and third parties (86% and 76% respectively) compared to supporters of Fateh (65%).

Read the whole thing here