ChatGPT on the Key Bridge Collapse

I made an account on ChatGPT and asked the following questions:

First Question:

You

How often does a maritime vessel lose power?

ChatGPT

The frequency of maritime vessels losing power can vary depending on several factors including the age and condition of the vessel, the quality of maintenance, the type of propulsion system (e.g., diesel, steam, electric), weather conditions, navigational challenges, and human error.

In general, modern vessels are equipped with redundant systems to minimize the risk of power loss. However, power failures can still occur due to various reasons such as engine malfunctions, fuel supply issues, electrical faults, adverse weather conditions like storms or rough seas, collisions, or even sabotage.

While it’s difficult to provide an exact frequency, power loss incidents are relatively uncommon given the stringent safety standards and protocols in the maritime industry. However, they do happen occasionally, and maritime crews are trained to respond to such emergencies efficiently.

Second Question

You

How often does a maritime vessel built in 2015 that is diesel powered lose power under calm weather conditions with regular maintenance inspections under the direction of two trained harbor pilots?

ChatGPT

It’s still difficult to provide an exact frequency for power loss incidents for a specific vessel under those conditions. However, I can provide further insights:

1. Modern Vessel and Technology: A maritime vessel built in 2015 is likely to have advanced technology and redundant systems to minimize the risk of power loss. These systems include backup generators, emergency power supplies, and fail-safes designed to maintain propulsion even in the event of an engine failure.
2. Regular Maintenance Inspections: Regular maintenance inspections are crucial for identifying and addressing potential issues before they lead to power loss. With diligent maintenance, the risk of unexpected power loss due to mechanical or electrical failures can be significantly reduced.
3. Trained Harbor Pilots: Having two trained harbor pilots onboard adds an additional layer of expertise and safety to vessel operations. Harbor pilots are highly skilled in navigating ships in and out of ports, understanding local conditions, and responding effectively to emergencies.

Given these factors, the likelihood of a maritime vessel built in 2015, powered by diesel, losing power under calm weather conditions with regular maintenance inspections and under the guidance of two trained harbor pilots is relatively low. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that unforeseen circumstances can still arise, albeit infrequently.

Despite the low probability, the vessel’s crew and pilots are trained to respond to emergencies swiftly and effectively, ensuring the safety of the vessel, its crew, and any cargo onboard. Additionally, regulatory bodies and industry standards enforce strict safety protocols to minimize risks in maritime operations.

Third Question

You

Hypothetically, a bridge is 1.6 miles long. There are two points along the span of the bridge that are 100 feet that are critical to the support of half of the bridge. What is the probability that a ship would lose power at a critical time causing the ship to hit one of critical support points?

ChatGPT

To calculate the probability that a ship would lose power at a critical time causing it to hit one of the critical support points on the bridge, we need to consider several factors:

1. The length of the critical section of the bridge: 100 feet
2. The total length of the bridge: 1.6 miles, which is equivalent to 8,448 feet.
3. The probability of the ship losing power at a critical time.

Let’s break down the problem step by step:

1. Calculate the probability that the ship hits one of the critical support points on the bridge:
   • The critical section of the bridge is 100 feet.
   • The total length of the bridge is 8,448 feet.
   • So, the probability of hitting one of the critical support points is 10084488448100​.
2. Calculate the probability of the ship losing power at a critical time (this is a hypothetical scenario, so we’ll need to assign a probability based on the context you have in mind).

Once you have the probability of the ship losing power at a critical time, you can multiply it by the probability of hitting one of the critical support points to find the overall probability.

Let’s say, for example, the probability of the ship losing power at a critical time is 0.01 (1%). Then the overall probability would be:

Overall Probability=Probability of losing power×Probability of hitting critical pointOverall Probability=Probability of losing power×Probability of hitting critical point Overall Probability=0.01×1008448 Overall Probability=0.01×8448100​

You can substitute the appropriate value for the probability of losing power to get the exact result.

Fourth Question

You

What is the probability of .00011849?

ChatGPT

The probability of 0.00011849 is equivalent to 0.011849% when expressed as a percentage. This probability represents a very low likelihood event, indicating that it occurs approximately 0.011849 times out of 100 or roughly once in every 8,430 occurrences.

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I would assign a much lower probability for the ship to lose power at a critical time. Doing a statistical analysis would require more variables. I used just the bridge for my example but what if we used the entire harbor area for critical points since the flow of the river in the harbor played a factor. As did the weather, lack of tug boats and choice of ship.

However, here is my last question:

You

What would you consider to be an astronomical probability?

ChatGPT

An astronomical probability refers to an extremely low likelihood of an event occurring, often to the point where it is considered practically impossible or highly improbable within the context of the universe or a particular system.

While there’s no precise threshold for what constitutes an astronomical probability, it generally implies a probability so low that it’s beyond the realm of typical human experience or comprehension. This could include probabilities significantly lower than 0.0001% or even much smaller, such as probabilities on the order of 1 in a billion, 1 in a trillion, or even smaller.

An example of an astronomical probability might be the likelihood of randomly selecting a specific atom out of all the atoms in the observable universe or the probability of a series of highly unlikely events happening in precise sequence without any external influence. These probabilities are so infinitesimally small that they are often considered virtually impossible from a practical standpoint.

David DeGerolamo