Irma Updates – Look Out Swamp People!

by Scott Creighton

No, I’m not a weather website and no, I’m not getting into disaster porn. But since Irma is tracking closer and closer to my happy little hovel and my furry family, I thought I would give you guys an update.

First of all, Irma has been downgraded to a Cat. 4 with sustained wind-speed at 155mph. It’s also slowing so the estimated landfall time in Florida has been pushed back to Sat. night around 8pm or so.

It’s tracking just north of Cuba and is expected to make some kind of landfall there in the next few hours.

The worst thing about Irma for me is it’s western drift or at least the western drift of the projected path.

You might recall the spaghetti models from just two days ago. Only the outlier models had Irma hitting Florida.

Yesterday morning the predictions had shifted west a bit and had Irma hugging the east coast of my home state.

As you can see, the European model, widely considered the best of all of them or at least the most accurate, had Irma tracking west of the center-line of the state and making landfall somewhere around Everglades National Park down there on the southern-most tip of Florida.

Today I wake up to this.

As you can see, the majority of the predictions have Irma making landfall as a Cat. 4 somewhere on the southern tip of Florida and running straight up the state. Here’s a median estimate of the path.

As slow as she is moving I fully expect Irma’s path to continue to deviate before hitting us down here. Some models suggest it could make landfall in Cuba and then get pushed out into the Gulf and make it all the way up to the Panhandle before landing again.

If it continues on that westward track, Irma could pass the tip of Florida and make way in the warm waters of the Gulf before heading north and God only knows what it will be by time it lands where ever it lands.

On the path that is projected now, looks like it will be knocking on my door sometime late Sat. morning / early Sunday as a Cat. 2 which, if I’m not mistaken, has sustained winds of between 96 and 110 mph.

I would hope that it wouldn’t make it that far up the center of the state as a Cat. 2 and that it would lose some energy by time it gets this far north. But what do I know.

If it stays true to this latest prediction, lots of lives will be saved since it will make landfall in a swamp as opposed to South Beach, Miami. There’s nothing really down there except some gators, some swamp people hunting gators and some film crews from AE filming the swamp people hunting the gators.

If it cuts up north earlier than it is now expected and runs up the east coast it will be devastating.

If it continues it’s westward track and gets into the warm waters of the Gulf, it’s gain steam and there’s no telling where it will hit but where ever it does, if it does that, it’ll be in a much more populated area than Everglades National Park.

I hate to say this because I know some folks down there are going to be in harm’s way, but if Irma continues on it’s projected path at this time, yes, I might see some hurricane force winds in my little happy hovel, BUT… it would literally be the best location for landfall in Florida… if it has to make landfall in Florida.

Of course the MSM wont tell you that because every weather system has to be the worst ever in the history of ever and the Florida state government wants as much money from DC as possible, but the truth is what it is. If Irma makes landfall there it will lose a lot of energy before hitting a major population center and Miami and Fort Myers will have dodged a serious bullet.

Anyway, I will try to keep you guys up to date. Her paths are changing every minute now.

Good luck to all those in her path right now and the folks in Cuba.

And good luck to all you swamp people and your film crews.

And good luck to the gators. I like gators. Not the Florida Gators. They suck.