What if I told you there is a growing possibility Irma misses the Florida peninsula completely?

by Scott Creighton

I know the doom-porners will get mad at me and I will probably get an earful about how it’s better to have people over-react than get hammered by hurricane Irma without any preparation at all… however, that said… it seems like a steadily growing possibility that she doesn’t make landfall on the Florida peninsula at all.

Early Friday morning I wrote in part:

As slow as she is moving I fully expect Irma’s path to continue to deviate before hitting us down here. Some models suggest it could make landfall in Cuba and then get pushed out into the Gulf and make it all the way up to the Panhandle before landing again.

If it continues on that westward track, Irma could pass the tip of Florida and make way in the warm waters of the Gulf before heading north and God only knows what it will be by time it lands where ever it lands.

I wrote that because Irma’s been tracking further and further westward for the past three days (as I showed in that article) and at the time of writing that, there were two lesser known models that predicted she would bounce around on Cuba and head out into the Gulf missing the tip of Florida completely.

Right now the updated spaghetti model map a NUMBER of them projecting this result.

Now, keep in mind, this is a live model image. It will update itself so what I am posting now (1:41am Eastern time Sat.) wont be the same as when you are looking at it. But right now there are a total of 7 prediction models showing Irma making landfall in Cuba and running past Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

Of those 7, two are major models. The NVGM and the CLP5 have Irma tracking way out into the Gulf and heading up to the panhandle before making landfall.

In fact, the rest of them are starting to bunch up on the West Coast of Florida just like they all bunched up on the East Coast two days ago. Back then, there were only three models suggesting it would move West, one of them being the now famous European model (UKM (dark blue)) which is currently laying right on the West Coast all the way up the state.

Here is NOAA’s tracking prediction. It’s pretty much an average of the others.

Now I am not a meteorologist but I think I can piece together the similarities in the models that show Irma heading off in the Gulf and it appears to me the longer she stays over Cuba, the more chance there is of her missing Florida or at least not hitting us until the pan-handle.

Here is a current satellite image from NOAA of where she is right now.

Here are her stats as she is “MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA”

2:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 22.3°N 78.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb
Max sustained: 160 mph

If Irma doesn’t bounce north pretty quickly, if she digs into Cuba a bit and runs along the island for a couple hours, there is a real good chance one of those outlier models may become the median just like the European one did yesterday and tomorrow we will be seeing a bunch of them predicting her heading out to sea in the Gulf (so to speak)

Now of course… what do any of these things know? They had her heading 75 miles off East Coast of Florida just two days ago on route to South Carolina. So who the hell knows.

Plus, large storm systems are notoriously unpredictable. I guess there are a lot of factors that go into making these prediction models. Especially once they get over a piece of land somewhere.

It is still entirely possible that the damn thing is meandering it’s way right to the door of my happy little hovel down here in Tampa.

But as I wrote in a comment yesterday morning, the further it gets away from Miami the better since that is the most densely populated area in Florida and has the highest concentration of working poor people who never stood a chance to get out of the way in the first place.

I am not a weatherman expert (who are already somewhat apologizing for getting it wrong with regards to Miami… while they are still pushing doom-porn for the West Coast just like they did for the east) or any such thing but I can see trends developing and right now the trend is WEST and Irma is running over Cuba like she might stick around for a while down there… so… it is possible… maybe not LIKELY (or maybe it is?)… but it is possible… Irma will take her negative energy waves out to sea (I know its the Gulf) and stew for a little while before deciding where she goes next.

Maybe I’m just being all “HOPEY CHANGY” and shit… whistling past the graveyard… but it is… possible… right?

So if you are down here in Florida with me somewhere on the West Coast, make yourself ready… but… there is a… possibility.

I know I am making myself a target for the doom-porners. Will probably be called an Irma Truther or some thing. It’s Ok. I can take it.

Will keep giving you guys updates as long as I can.