“Did Coronavirus Break the Market? On a Horse’s Back”
by David Stockman
“Nor does the concourse of all causes make one simple chain or concatenation but an innumerable number of chains joined together, not in all parts, but in the first link God Almighty; and consequently the whole cause of an event does not always depend on one single chain, but on many together… the last dictate of the judgement, concerning the good or bad that may follow on any action, is not properly the whole cause, but the last part of it; and yet may be said to produce the effect necessarily, in such manner as the last feather may be said to break a horse’s back, when there were so many laid on before as there wanted by that one to do it.”
– Thomas Hobbes,
“Hobbes’s Tripos: Of Liberty and Necessity” (1684)
“Friday morning the yield on the central benchmark security of the entire $90 trillion global bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, hit an all-time low of just 1.18%. Shot…and chaser… This single, incongruous datapoint alone tells you that MAGA is a preposterous pipe dream. It bespeaks not of the “greatest economy ever” but of a financial malignancy that’s devouring the very foundations of capitalist prosperity in America.
Up against those corrosive forces, the Donald’s unhinged boasting, careless misreading of the facts, and counterproductive fiscal and trade war policies don’t have a snowball’s chance in the hot place of even improving upon the badly impaired fundamentals he inherited, let alone fulfilling the fantasies continuously erupting from the his Twitter feed.
In the first place, the underlying rot that is and will make a mockery of MAGA flows from fact that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a creature of the Federal Reserve’s massive falsification of financial asset prices. The resulting systemic and long-accumulating distortions have, in turn, fostered rampant front-running and repo-funded speculation in the bond pits that amplify the initial mispricing resulting from massive monetary central planning. Moreover, these deep pricing distortions in the sovereign debt markets then cascade through the entire financial system, fueling superheated bubbles and vast misallocations all along the way.
Well, it’s all coming to a head…”
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