The Giant Presumption Behind Re-Opening America
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 18:57
% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.
“The Giant Presumption Behind Re-Opening America”
by John Mauldin
“Newly “liberated” Americans are flocking to beaches, parks, and restaurants, eager to prove the novel coronavirus doesn’t scare them. In fact, the virus doesn’t care how brave they are. It just wants to spread. I suspect it found many new hosts at those gatherings, and this will be apparent soon. At the same time, many others are still staying home whenever possible, not yet convinced it is safe to go out.
But regardless of who’s right, Wall Street people are thrilled. The stock market shot higher in April. Many experts think the economy will soon be back to normal. What any of us think matters less than what the virus does. This “normal” everyone wants to see is an economy unmolested by this virus. Will it just go away? Let’s see what experts think.
Three Scenarios: The economic outlook is cloudy right now because it isn’t entirely economic. It’s also medical and sociological. The economy’s course depends on how this virus behaves, and how people behave in response. A report last week from the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) outlined three scenarios this pandemic could follow.
Scenario 1, which they call “Peaks and Valleys,” says this first wave will recede, but will be followed by similar waves every few months for the next year or two. Their severity will vary somewhat, but they will keep happening. Economically, this is the middle-ground outlook. We’ll still have a recession, and the recurring outbreaks would delay recovery. After a lot of pain, people and businesses would adapt.
Scenario 2, the “Fall Peak,” says that what we just saw in March and April was the prelude to a larger wave this fall or winter. That’s what happened in the 1918 flu epidemic. Smaller third and fourth waves would probably follow in 2021. That scenario could be an economic knock-out blow. Faced with a national breakdown of the healthcare system, authorities would likely impose far more severe and lengthy lockdowns than the US has seen so far. Businesses that were just getting back on their feet would close permanently. The government, having already spent trillions, might not be able to offer more stimulus.
Scenario 3, the “Slow Burn,” would see the virus keep spreading, but slowly enough for the healthcare system to handle. Further lockdowns would be unnecessary. This is the economic best-case. It would mean the worst is behind us and the recovery will proceed. This is what many investors seem to be betting on.
The CIDRAP team believes that in any of these scenarios, we should be prepared for at least another 18–24 months of significant COVID-19 activity. That’s how long it will take to either develop and deploy an effective vaccine, or for the population to develop “herd immunity.”
Wishful Thinking: With even the best-case scenarios looking dark, why are so many investors and businesspeople so sure the worst is over? I think some of it is denial or “wishful thinking.” They don’t want it to be true and so convince themselves it is not. They expect to find a four-leaf clover that solves everything. But I think the main problem is they don’t understand how hard this has hit the service part of the economy, and how difficult recovery will be.
Today’s investors love businesses that “scale.” A website like Facebook, for instance, can double its revenue without doubling expenses. Not so for restaurants. One chef can’t make an infinite number of meals. And now, with different rules and customer expectations, they have to reengineer everything. It will take time and money. Meanwhile, unemployment will remain high and consumer spending will suffer. And don’t forget, large events and conventions are probably off the table for months. The impact on the hotel, air travel, and entertainment industries alone would trigger a harsh recession. But that’s not the scariest part.
Feeling Lucky? If governors keep relaxing the restrictions this month, most of the US will have spent six to eight weeks offline or in some kind of lockdown situation. That seems like a long time. But Wuhan, China, where the outbreak originated, had to stay in a far more restrictive lockdown for 10 weeks. Ditto for hard-hit parts of Italy and Spain.
In the US, new cases seem to have stabilized to around 30,000 daily. The number is not shrinking nationally. It’s not shrinking in places like Georgia and Texas that are beginning to re-open. As more people resume contact in public spaces, even more infections seem likely.
It is true that lockdowns can’t go on indefinitely. People have limits. The isolation causes other problems and even deaths. But, as I explained last week, the economy isn’t going to bounce right back. This urgency to re-open businesses before customers are ready is odd. Our leaders seem to presume the virus will behave differently in the US than it did elsewhere, and we don’t need to do what other countries did. If that presumption proves false, then the “Fall Peak” scenario is a real possibility.
In March and April, millions of Americans lost their jobs and 63,856 lost their lives. It’s been awful. And it may have been a dress rehearsal for worse in November/December.”
Source: http://coyoteprime-runningcauseicantfly.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-giant-presumption-behind-re-opening.html
Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).
MOST RECENT
HELP KEEP NEWS FREE
DONATE
HERE
| Online: | |
| Visits: | 1,598,976,697 |
| Stories: | 8,137,728 |
Wanted: Citizen Reporters,
Whistler Blowers, Insiders
Whistler Blowers, Insiders
"Not by might, nor by power, but by my spirit, saith the Lord of hosts." Zechariah 4:6
Today's Top Stories
Featured
Top Global
Why in the hell can’t government approach any problem intelligently? 12,000 for every diagnosis and 3 times that if they use a ventilator. What the? how about 2,000 for diagnosis and 30,000 for every life they save? Nothing for a ventilator! I’m looking for intelligent life on this planet.
Governments only purpose is to protect itself and grow.
It’s the REAL virus.
isn’t it great that the economy is more important than saving lives ?
in a normal society, youhave universal healthcare and health is something worth. Here you are asked to go back to work cause the CEO’s needs their money while the government does nothing to protect you other than sending a check through the post
Uhhh some of us think it’s nothing but a normal flu variation.