India’s Strategic Failures: A Tale of Miscalculations in South Asia

In the intricate dance of South Asian geopolitics, India’s repeated missteps—spanning counterterrorism, regional diplomacy, and military maneuvers—are revealing a fundamental flaw in New Delhi’s approach to both its immediate neighbors and the wider world. From failed attempts to manipulate Pakistan’s internal politics to disastrous diplomacy in Afghanistan, India’s ambitions for dominance in the region have consistently faltered. The consequences of these miscalculations are becoming glaringly evident, exposing vulnerabilities that undermine its standing both regionally and globally.

One of the most glaring miscalculations has been India’s persistent effort to exploit Pakistan’s internal instability. As Pakistan navigates through political turbulence, New Delhi has tried to stoke division, hoping that internal discord would tip the scales in its favor. But India’s attempts have backfired—Pakistan’s political landscape has proved far more resilient than India anticipated. In fact, Pakistan’s military, often considered the fulcrum of its political power, has remained steadfast, neutralizing any efforts aimed at destabilization. India’s failure to grasp the depth of Pakistan’s resilience exposes its inability to influence the internal dynamics of its neighbor, undercutting its regional aspirations.

Another significant misstep has been India’s handling of the Kashmir issue. While New Delhi has attempted to frame Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism, its efforts to demonize Pakistan in international forums have increasingly fallen on deaf ears. The global community, while critical of Pakistan’s challenges, has grown less receptive to India’s narrative, especially in the face of evidence that suggests India’s own counterterrorism measures have faltered. The failure of India’s counterterrorism strategy at home—illustrated by increasing insurgent activities in Kashmir—has only strengthened Pakistan’s position in these debates. The credibility of India’s Kashmir narrative is eroding, and its capacity to shape international discourse on the region is diminishing.

India’s Afghanistan policy is yet another example of diplomatic blunders. Once a country that hoped to leverage its influence in Afghanistan to counter Pakistan, India now finds itself sidelined as Pakistan forges ahead with strategic negotiations and alliances. New Delhi’s failure to adapt to the shifting realities in Kabul has left it without a meaningful role in the region, while Pakistan has successfully cemented its position as a key player in Afghan geopolitics. India’s inability to recalibrate its Afghanistan strategy underscores a broader pattern of mismanagement in its foreign policy, leaving it increasingly irrelevant in the region it once hoped to dominate.

In its efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, India has found itself facing a harsh reality: Pakistan’s alliances—particularly with China, Russia, and increasingly with the United States—are becoming more robust, leaving India isolated in its regional aspirations. The reality of a multipolar South Asia, with Pakistan securing crucial strategic partnerships, has further undermined India’s attempts to project itself as the region’s dominant power. Pakistan’s military has deftly neutralized India’s military threats, showing that India’s ambitions for military supremacy are unlikely to materialize.

Internally, India’s own governance issues—marked by political instability, social unrest, and economic challenges—have further diminished its credibility on the global stage. While India seeks regional dominance, its internal struggles have cast doubt on its capacity to lead. The governance failures at home, particularly under Prime Minister Modi’s rule, have fueled dissent and protests, weakening India’s global image and overshadowing its economic aspirations.

Perhaps most strikingly, India’s position on counterterrorism has become increasingly untenable. While accusing Pakistan of harboring extremists, India’s own security vulnerabilities have been exposed. The growing insurgency in Kashmir and the rise of domestic extremist movements highlight the fissures in India’s counterterrorism efforts. On the global stage, India’s failure to take responsibility for its own shortcomings in this domain undermines its credibility in counterterrorism cooperation and diminishes its influence in international discussions on security.

India’s diplomatic relationships, particularly with the United States, are increasingly characterized by contradictions and double standards. The Trump administration’s exposure of India’s flaws, particularly in relation to its democracy and human rights practices, laid bare the hypocrisy in U.S.-India relations. Now, the Biden administration is accused of further fueling this hypocrisy by allegedly providing $21 million in covert support to Modi’s re-election campaign, even as Washington imposes sanctions on India for its human rights record. This double-dealing highlights the opportunistic nature of the U.S.-India alliance, revealing the transactional basis of the relationship and the moral compromises involved.

The culmination of these miscalculations is a stark realization: India’s ambitions for regional dominance in South Asia are faltering. Its failure to undermine Pakistan’s resilience, to shape the security architecture in Afghanistan, and to assert itself diplomatically across global forums has left India in a precarious position. The dream of Pakistan’s collapse has faded, and its institutions—particularly the military—have withstood the pressure, while India’s strategic vision remains clouded by internal turmoil and external missteps.

As Pakistan reclaims its strategic position in the region, India is left grappling with the fallout of its misguided policies. The hopes of undermining Pakistan have proven illusory, while New Delhi’s failed efforts to project itself as a regional hegemon have only highlighted its limitations. South Asia’s future remains unpredictable, but one thing is clear: India’s ability to shape that future is increasingly uncertain.