(2/2011) Egypt In Transition

By Dr. Joseph S. Maresca

The evolution of the Egyptian government from Hosni Mubarak to a more representative government may take anywhere from 6 months to 3 or more years. The Muslim Brotherhood represents only 1/5 of the population. Egypt is about 90% Sunni Muslim.

Sunni Muslims  are prominent in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East. Sh’ia Muslims live throughout Iraq, Iran, Syria and Lebanon. Saudi Arabia may have potential for instability since Iran has a huge Sh’ia presence reaching from Yemeni Sh’ia in the South, along the Caspian and Afghanistan to Lebanon.

Sh’ia Muslims believe that G-d has the sole discretion  to appoint Muhammad’s successor. They believe that G-d chose Ali who was Muhammad’s first cousin and the fourth Muslim caliph. Sunnis assert that  Muhammad never appointed a successor.  Abu Bakr was elected to be the first caliph by the Muslims. The Sunnis recognize the first four caliphs as Muhammad’s rightful heirs.  Sunni schools teach that Shiites aren’t real Muslims. Sh’ias don’t have government representation, per se.

They can’t enter the judiciary. In Saudi Arabia, Sh’ias and Sunni can’t marry. For centuries, the Sh’ia have been impoverished. Numerically, Iran has the most Shia perhaps 65 million or more. Leaders in Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia believe that the Sunni-Sh’ia tensions are on the rise. Saudi Arabia is the focal point for these tensions due to its tremendous religious significance, as well as being a center of great resources and wealth. The new government in Egypt must work to lessen differences between Sunni and Sh’ia Muslims.

Following the completion of the Suez Canal in 1869, Egypt became an important world transportation hub. The country has had problems with managing debt. The richness of the annual Nile River flood, coupled with isolation provided by deserts to the east and west, allowed for the development of one of the world’s greatest civilizations.

The economy of Egypt consists of textiles tourism, chemicals, oil, food processing and cement. The major crops are cotton, rice, beans, fruit, wheat, vegetables and corn. The arable land mass is just 2%. There are opportunities to harness solar energy through the desert areas. The Eastern Desert is the desert east of the river Nile, between the Nile and the Red Sea. It extends from Egypt in the north to Eritrea in the south, and also comprises parts of Sudan and Ethiopia.

Egypt has a rapidly growing population (the largest in the Arab world). There is limited arable land although the Artificial Sun, solar energy and desalination plants can ameliorate the situation somewhat. Significant dependence on the Nile continues to stress limited resources. There are technological advancements in Operations Research to deal with limited resource management through the use of advanced algorithyms like linear programming. The government has struggled to meet the demands of Egypt’s growing population via economic reforms and considerable investments in communications and physical infrastructure. More is needed to provide employment for the ever increasing youth of Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood has competition with populists. Dynamic political forces on the street compete with the Muslim Brotherhood. The Middle East is only one part of the Muslim world. Europe has become an incubator for Islamist thought and political development. Since the early 1960s, Muslim Brotherhood members and sympathizers have moved to Europe and slowly but steadily established a wide and well-organized network of mosques, charities, and Islamic organizations. Unlike the larger Islamic community, the Muslim Brotherhood’s ultimate goal may not be simply “to help Muslims be the best citizens they can be,” but rather to extend Islamic law throughout Europe and the United States.   (1)

The youth of the country are seeking basic human rights and a representative government. Currently, about 1% of the Egyptians control a wide segment of business and politics.

The process can be facilitated with help from existing governmental structures existing in places like Jordan to a compendium of organizational structures which are in place in the 57 nations of the Arab League. Existing commercial laws are in place like the Uniform Commercial Code and English Common Law. The accounting standards are evolving globally through the International Federation of Accountants. (IFAC)

New technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence can be utilized to deliver brand new data processing systems to municipalities throughout Egypt and its surrounding neighbors.

Although the existing Parliament has been dissolved, Article 84 of the Egyptian Constitution states that once the President steps down, the Speaker of the Peoples’ Assembly assumes the Presidency on an interim basis. A new President may be chosen within 60 days from the date of the vacancy of the President.  It is not clear whether or not this applies since the military is in charge essentially.  (2)

Mohamad El Baradei, Nobelist  favors a Presidential Council of 1 military person and 2 civilians to rule Egypt interimly. The former President Mubarak set in motion the lifting of emergency law and certain constitutional amendments.

Michael Wahid Hanna is a program official for the Century Foundation. The Foundation has been studying the Egyptian Constitution.  Some legal scholars believe that there may be latitude in the existing Egyptian Constitution for a popular referendum to encourage free elections. The military itself would like to get back to their historical role. They do not want to run the country per se.

Mohamed Fouad Gadalla VP of the Egyptian State Council believes that 20 or so Articles of the Constitution actually need re-writing. The Egyptian State Council is a network of administrative courts in Egypt.

There are existing peace treaties which must be upheld by Egypt and its partners.  Anwar Sadat changed the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East by signing a treaty with Israel in 1979, making Egypt the first Arab country to fully recognize the Jewish state.

Sadat caused controversy in 1977 when he made an historic visit to Israel – unprecedented by an Arab leader – and addressed the Knesset, where he said: “Any life lost in war is the life of a human being, irrespective of whether it is an Arab or an Israeli.”

In recognition of Sadat’s efforts at negotiating peace with Israel, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1978 along with Menachem Begin, the Israeli prime minister.   (3)

Armistice agreements were signed by Egypt and its neighbors. Ralph Bunche, the 1950 Nobel Peace Prize winner, was involved with the Arab-Israeli conflict.  He served as assistant to the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine, and thereafter as the principal secretary of the U.N. Palestine Commission. In 1948 he traveled to the Middle East as the chief aide to Sweden’s Count Folke Bernadotte, who had been appointed by the U.N. to mediate the conflict.

He received the Peace Prize for his efforts as mediator between Arabs and Jews in the Israeli-Arab war in 1948-1949. These efforts resulted in armistice agreements between the new state of Israel and four of its Arab neighbors: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

References:

1) http://www.meforum.org/687/the-muslim-brotherhoods-conquest-of-europe

2) http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/World/article/761927

3) http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/03/20093266460706634.html#

Joseph S. Maresca Ph.D., CPA, CISA, MBA: His significant writings include over 10 copyrights in the name of the author (Joseph S. Maresca) and a patent in the earthquake sciences. He holds membership in the prestigious Delta Mu Delta National Honor Society and Sigma Beta Delta International Honor Society.  In addition, he blogs and reviews many books for Basil & Spice. Visit the Joseph S. Maresca Writer’s Page.

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