2024: The Year of the Bitcoin?

Originally published via Armageddon Prose Substack:

2023, Year of the Rabbit for Sinophiles, saw incremental gains by Bitcoin against the dollar following its precipitous fall from grace having reached an all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021.

It’s currently at around $45,000.

Some bullish analysts expect it to climb back to, and even exceed, its former pinnacle. Others forecast more modestly optimistic gains. Still others continue to predict its imminent demise, as they have since its inception.

Is 2024 the Year of the Bitcoin?

          Related: De-Dollarization: The Death Knell For US Hegemony?

Via Bloomberg:

“Bitcoin is on course to advance for a fifth straight month in what would be the token’s longest such winning streak since a pandemic-era rally oiled by easy money.

The largest digital asset has risen about 2% in January, a month of pronounced swings sparked by the rollout of the first US spot Bitcoin exchanged-traded funds and shifting views on the outlook for monetary policy.

A run of five straight monthly gains would be the longest since a six-month stretch spanning October 2020 to March 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.”

Via Crypto Slate:

“Finder’s latest survey of 40 crypto founders, executives, and educators reveals a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, projecting its value to increase significantly through 2030. The consensus among the panel suggests a positive trajectory for Bitcoin, predicting its value to rise to $77,423 by the end of 2024, $122,688 by 2025, and $366,935 by 2030. These projections mark a notable uptick in optimism compared to past surveys, indicating the growing bullish sentiment within the sector.

According to the average prediction, Bitcoin is expected to reach $77,423 by the close of 2024, with projections varying significantly among panelists. Some anticipate a surge to over six figures within the year, while more conservative estimates suggest a potential decline from its current price of around $44,000.”

I don’t pretend to have a crystal ball or access to inside information regarding the prospects of Bitcoin, let alone more exotic cryptocurrencies.

Obviously, crypto-friendly outlets like Crypto Slate and the crypto analysts it polled are likely to paint a rosier-than-reality picture of alternatives to the dollar and physical assets.

Whales can finesse prices in various creative fashions.

For these reasons and more, I am in no position to prognosticate on the trajectory of Bitcoin myself. Everything that I hear or read about Bitcoin I take with a grain of salt and hedge my bets with other assets.

That caveat aside, I never panicked when Bitcoin dipped against the dollar over the last several years, viewing it as a reasonable safe long-term store of value.  

Until governing authorities figure out how to hack or confiscate Bitcoin, or rip away all possibility of anonymity, I am confident that it will retain such inherent value, which is predicated on the fact that it’s not subject (yet) to the same manipulations as fiat currency.

Related: How to Be Your Own Bank: Holding Actual Custody of Your Digital Assets

Ben Bartee, author of Broken English Teacher: Notes From Exile, is an independent Bangkok-based American journalist with opposable thumbs.

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