Japan: ’60-70% chance’ of massive Nankai quake within 30 years
Jiji Press | The Japan News
There is a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of an earthquake with a magnitude of between 8.0 and 9.1 occurring in the Nankai Trough in the Pacific off Japan in the next 30 years, the government’s Earthquake Research Committee said Friday.
The figure is for a temblor that could occur somewhere in the trough that stretches from areas off Shizuoka Prefecture to the island of Shikoku. Previously, the committee announced separate estimates on the possibility of large earthquakes for the eastern, southeastern and southern areas around the Nankai Trough.
Yoshimori Honkura, chief of the committee, said at a press conference that the committee believes the risk of a massive earthquake is already high and is expected to increase year by year. He called on the country to make full preparations for a possible Nankai Trough quake and tsunami that could be triggered by such a quake.
In 2001, the committee put the probability of an 8.1-magnitude earthquake occurring in the southeastern part of the trough in 30 years at 70 percent 80 percent. It saw a 60 percent chance of an 8.4-magnitude quake in the southern part and an 88 percent chance of an 8.0-magnitude quake in the eastern part.
As it was unable to predict the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that hit the Tohoku region on March 11, 2011, the committee expanded the areas covered by its study in calculating the latest estimates on the probability of large Nankai Trough quakes.
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Source: http://www.setyoufreenews.com/2013/05/25/japan-60-70-chance-of-massive-nankai-quake-within-30-years/
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