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Novorossia\Ukraine update 3\15\2015..humanitarian aid for the planting season in Donbass is prepared for shipping

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While the media hustle associated with “Putin’s disappearance” continues and the rumors of various coup scenarios multiply, I will write briefly about the important developments in Novorossia.

1. The flows of non-government humanitarian cargo have effectively stopped on the border, perhaps only the food is still passing through, everything else is stuck for now. There are some organizational measures associated with the centralization of the flows locked onto the Russian EMERCOM. Nevertheless, there is no control over the border from the side of the OSCE and the junta; the voentorg operates in its regular mode.

2. There is a sequence of arrests in the DPR (which include the representatives of the authorities). The main reasons are participation/cooperation with various organized crime groups, schemes of smuggling weapons and “expropriated” property to the territory of the RF, refusal to fight, etc. They don’t look much at prior achievements — the goal is to remove people with criminal background and it is pursued relentlessly. The fight against the enemy agents is also intensified. The main role is played by the Ministry for State Security and the military counter-intelligence.

3. The “truce” is pretty much not observed. Lately I talked to a person who left the front at Donetsk a couple of days ago for a business trip — he told me that the positions of their brigade were hammered from howitzers and MLRS. Our forces similarly hit the enemy positions. In the end there is a media rupture of sorts: in the media the situation is muffled or ignored. They continue to dream up the “truce”. In practice there is low-intensity military action at various locations, where both sides periodically suffer minor losses.

4. About the offensive and the time when it starts: in principle our forces are fully ready if the junta decides to go in. It is not advantageous for our forces to start first, because then there will be an onslaught of accusations of a direct aggression. So, just like in winter, they simply wait while the junta makes a move, after which there will be a rough response. The stuff that was pulled back as a part of diplomatic maneuvering will return to its positions (in case it becomes necessary) within 3-4 hours on average. Serious accumulation of the junta forces and the very same cheating associated with fictitious pullback of artillery is still noted behind the front line. Regardless of the terms of the start of the war, the army will grow due to the final reformatting of the old and the already acting units and also due to forming new units from mobilization and volunteers. Naturally, due to the prevailing theme of war, which may start in the short term, the nation-building continues to proceed at turtle pace.

5. The enemy is wary of a strike from Popasnaya and Stakhanov towards Artyomovsk, which may cut the whole front in Donbass and split the AFU group on the occupied territories of the DPR from the forces concentrated on the LPR territory. According to the orders from the ATO headquarters and the sector command, at least 2 mechanized brigades must be deployed in the area of Artyomovsk, which should cover Artyomovsk and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area. Holding on to Dolomitnoye and Troitskoye is also considered by the enemy to be highly significant, because preserving the current configuration of the Svetlodarsk wedge allows them to avoid the risk of a new encirclement and to avoid the necessity of splitting the Artyomovsk group again.

6. Regarding the continuing fighting at Shirokino: according to the unconfirmed information (I cannot confirm this at 100%, so I report it as it is), the continuation of the military action in the area of Mariupol is a personal initiative by Turchinov et al., who try to guarantee the disruption of the Minsk agreements as a part of the long since deceased “Turchinov’s offensive”. The “Azov” punitive regiment serves as a mundane instrument for fraying a cease-fire and for organizing various provocations. The civilian sentiment in Mariupol itself is currently fairly beneficial for us: the junta supporters are in a significant minority there. Nevertheless, a head-on assault on Mariupol is unlikely.

7. Regarding the shipments of foreign lightly armored vehicles. The majority of these vehicles will go towards arming territorial and punitive battalions and also towards reinforcing significantly battered units where there is a critical lack of armor (due to losses and mechanical failures), which must be fixed as soon as possible. The military value of these vehicles is evaluated as being not very high even by the Ukrainian command, but they are not in a position to choose because the tempos of replenishing their losses clearly lag behind their needs.

The OSCE Representative: Withdrawal of heavy military equipment has not yet been completed.

How long can we tolerate tyranny of the oligarchs? Rally in the Odessa region

Participants of the rally protested against the seizure of the port by oligarchs. The protesters also expressed support for the establishment of the regime of free economic zone (the so-called “porto franco”) in the Odessa region.

Poroshenko on Sunday night introduced a bill to the Verkhovna Rada on the determination of individual areas of Donbass, with a special order of the local government. The corresponding project 2374 of 03.14.2015 was published on the website of the Verkhovna Rada.

Currently a draft resolution on the definition of individual regions, cities, towns and villages of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which are to take special arrangements for local government, is sent to the Ukrainian parliament for consideration.

Extraordinary convoy of Russian Emergencies Ministry with humanitarian aid for the planting season in Donbass is prepared for shipping. Message from deputy head of the National Emergency Management Center (NEMC) Minister Oleg Voronov is quoted by “Interfax”.

“MES of Russia formed another unscheduled Emergencies Ministry convoy in the Rostov region carrying humanitarian aid to Donbass in less than a day, and it is ready to be delivered,”
- he said.

More than 35 tank rounds were recorded during the battles in Shirokino on March 13. These data are stated by the OSCE in its daily report on the situation in the zone of ATO on March 13.
“SMM heard more than one hundred mortar rounds (both of 120 mm, and 82 mm) and more than 35 shots with tank shells that were made at a distance of two to three kilometers to the south-east from the observers’ position in the government-controlled area, they landed, as it was heard, in about 4-5 kilometers to the east of the observers’ position in the north-eastern outskirts of Shirokino, “
- the statement reads.

Message from “Varyag” unit commander Alexander Matyushin.

“Ukrainian security forces continue their attacks on Novorossia army positions with artillery and heavy infantry weapons. Security forces shelled the area of Donetsk airport, settlements Yasinovataya and Spartak. Donetsk is gradually recovering and trying as much as possible to return to normal civilian life. If the Ukrainian side resumes fighting, the army of Novorossia is ready to give them an appropriate rebuff. “

Message from resident of Dokuchayevsk.

“Right sector are grouping in the village Novotroitskoye, there was bombardment of Nikolayevka from Novotroitskoye yesterday, well, as always, the security forces wail that it is up to Dokuchayevsk militia, OSCE came to inspect the place of the incident.”

Security Service of Ukraine has “their people” in the administrations of the DPR and the LPR. This was stated by head of the SBU Valentin Nalivaychenko in an interview to, “News of Donetsk republic” reports.

“I want to say that in spite of everything, we control the situation in Donetsk and Lugansk. There are people who help us, including in the direct management of “DPR” and “LPR”. So we have the full information, “
- he said.

SBU head: militia released almost 2.5 thousand hostages from captivity. Instead, the Ukrainian side gave them out 1553 people.

“Today, the circumstances are such that SBU, inter alia, has to deal also with the exchange of prisoners. You know – a center of exchange and the release was created for people who are illegally held by terrorists or the Russian military. We returned 2483 people “
- “Interfax-Ukraine” quotes message of the Security Service of Ukraine head Valentin Nalivaychenko.

DPR: there were 17 violations of the ceasefire by the AFU in the night.

“There were 17 violations during the night: with self-propelled gun mounts (two firings) and small arms. AFU fired in the direction of Spartak, Gorlovka, Shirokino and Donetsk Airport. There were no clashes, “
- DAN quotes a message of representative of the DPR Ministry of Defense.

Ukrainian army was shelling militia positions as well as residential areas.

“There are no losses of DPR militia personnel for the night, information on casualties among the civilian population and the AFU to be confirmed,”
- the Defense Ministry added.

The night of March 13 to 14 was relatively calm in the area of ​​the so-called ATO. It is reported by the press center of ATO on its page on Facebook.
“From 8 pm to 6 am the enemy randomly fired on the positions of our troops along the demarcation line 6 times with small arms and automatic grenade launchers,”
- the statement reads.
In particular, they fired on positions of ATO forces near the village of Opytnoye on Donetsk direction with small arms three times, positions near the village of Peski – with automatic grenade launchers.
In addition, the ATC notes, from 22:05 to 22:30 artillery allegedly hit from the area of Avdeyevka.

“In general, the enemy violated the silence 4 times from 20:00 to midnight, another 2 cases of shelling were recorded from midnight to 6 am,”
- the statement reads.


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