Read the story here. Advertise at Before It's News here.
Profile image
By RedState (Reporter)
Contributor profile | More stories
Story Views
Last hour:
Last 24 hours:

John Kasich Will Probably Get Mathematically Eliminated Tuesday Even if he Wins Ohio

% of readers think this story is Fact. Add your two cents.

John Kasich likes to say that after he wins Ohio on Tuesday (which is by no means certain but which is looking increasingly likely), he’s going to go on and win the entire nomination. The main person who disagrees with John Kasich is math. In fact, it’s entirely possibly that John Kasich will be outright eliminated from contention for the nomination on Tuesday, even if he wins Ohio. Even if he isn’t mathematically eliminated, however, his elimination will be all but a formality.

Here’s how the math works out. After picking up 9 delegates on Saturday, Kasich has 63 delegates. He needs 1,237 to get the nomination. That means he needs 1,174 delegates in order to win. The problem for Kasich is that there are only 1,404 delegates left to be selected. What that means is that if any person not named John Kasich gets a total of 230 delegates, starting today, Kasich mathematially cannot get the nomination.

Let’s assume for the sake of argument that Kasich wins Ohio, which is his best possible result. I think even Kasich would concede that he will not win Florida in his wildest dreams, so that means right off the bat that Kasich is down to 131 total delegates that he can lose. Between North Carolina (72), Illinois (69) and Missouri (52), the GOP selects a total of 193 other delegates on Tuesday.

If Kasich doesn’t win at least 62 out of these 193 delegates (32% of the delegates) from NC, IL and MO, he will be mathematically eliminated from contention. The likelihood that Kasich will reach this threshold is vanishingly small. All three states award delegates proportionally, with no minimum threshold, which is counterintuitively bad news for Kasich, since his best chance of getting one third of the delegates from even one of those three states is if one of the other candidates fails to qualify for any delegates at all. Otherwise, Kasich is expected to finish WAY behind at least Trump and Cruz in NC, and polling shows him about even with Cruz and Rubio for second in Illinois. No one really knows what’s going to happen in Missouri except that if Kasich gets 20% of the vote there, it will be a miracle.

The bottom line is that unless Kasich has a miraculously and unexpectedly successful day in North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri on Tuesday, he will be mathematically eliminated from contention in the Republican nomination. So no, Kasich and Kasich supporters, your guy does not have a chance and the narrative he is selling is an absolute lie. If he ever tells you he’s doing anything other than biding his time to a contested convention, know that the numbers say otherwise.

The post John Kasich Will Probably Get Mathematically Eliminated Tuesday Even if he Wins Ohio appeared first on RedState.


Before It’s News® is a community of individuals who report on what’s going on around them, from all around the world.

Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.

"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.

Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!

Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at M - F 9am to 5pm EST

Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!

HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation

Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.

MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser!  Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen! 
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover -  Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%!  (See Video)

Report abuse


    Your Comments
    Question   Razz  Sad   Evil  Exclaim  Smile  Redface  Biggrin  Surprised  Eek   Confused   Cool  LOL   Mad   Twisted  Rolleyes   Wink  Idea  Arrow  Neutral  Cry   Mr. Green

    Load more ...




    Email this story
    Email this story

    If you really want to ban this commenter, please write down the reason:

    If you really want to disable all recommended stories, click on OK button. After that, you will be redirect to your options page.