The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 20 2023

Fighting Breaks out on Zaporizhzhia Front

Early reports suggest New Russian Southern Offensive Yielding Immediate Results.

Massive Russian offensives are annihilating Ukraine

The “Quiet” Front

There is still surprisingly little coming out on it, but scant Russian sources are claiming Russian offensive actions in Zaporozhe have ruptured a significant part of the Ukrainian line and are advancing in a uniform fashion across the entire western flank of the front 

The situation in the Donetsk-Zaporozhye direction as of 16.00 January 20, 2023

🔻In the Orekhovsky sector, servicemen of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces storm the defensive line of the 128th Guards Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Malye Shcherbaki – Stepovoye. Russian fighters managed to knock out the forces of the 2nd battalion of the 9th regiment of the Gepard special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and liberate the village of Lobkove, destroying at least 15 Ukrainian fighters and taking control of three enemy strongholds.

▪️To the east, Russian fighters are advancing on the suburbs of Orekhov in the area of Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka. Taking control of these settlements will allow you to surround the city from the south and southeast.

❗️Orekhov is one of the key transport hubs in this area, and its release will greatly facilitate the supply of Russian troops on the line of contact and will strengthen positions before further advance to Zaporozhye.

🔻On the Pologovsky sector, units of the 5th combined-arms army occupied the dominant heights near the village of Malinovka east of Gulyaipol. During the offensive, at least 20 members of Ukrainian formations were eliminated. At the moment, the RF Armed Forces are fixed on the liberated lines.

▪️The Ukrainian command is also expecting the resumption of the assault on the Belogorye-Charivnoe line, where territorial defense units are deployed, reinforced by ATGM crews.

🔻In the Ugledarsky sector, Russian reconnaissance groups uncovered the positions of the Ukrainian army in a forest belt near the village of Elizavetovka. Pinpoint strikes by the artillery of the RF Armed Forces hit the firing positions of the artillery together with the personnel.

🔻 Positional battles continue in Marinka on the western outskirts of the city, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to hold back the advance of Russian troops. One of the companies of the 79th brigade was destroyed in full strength.

Despite this, the Ukrainian command is pulling additional forces to the site. This indicates plans to continue to hold the defense in this direction.

Our troops have broken through the front and are developing an offensive in the Zaporozhye direction
▪️According to preliminary data, the front is pushed to a depth of 5 km.
▪️Malye Shcherbaki and Lobkovskoye were taken in a quick attack.
▪️ Assault actions are underway near the settlement. Shcherbaki, Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka, Malaya Tokmachka, Belogorye.
▪️The offensive goes through wide open spaces, which is quite difficult and requires air and artillery cover
▪️Our howitzers are actively destroying the strongholds and positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “Hyacinths” and “Carnations” are engaged in counter-battery combat, destroying enemy artillery.
▪️The army aviation supports the offensive with airstrikes.
▪️In the morning report of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it was reported that in the Zaporozhye direction, the RF Armed Forces were using tanks, mortars and artillery in the Vremovka and Novopol areas in the DPR and Olgovskoye, Malinovka, Gulyaipole, Charivnoye, Belogorya, Orekhov, Maly Shcherbaki and Kamenskoye in Zaporozhye.
▪️In the evening report it was reported that the RF Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlement. Vremovka and Novopol of the DPR and Olgovskoye, Gulyaipole, Volshebnoye, Novodanilovka, Kamenskoye and Plavni of the Zaporozhye region

Zaporozhye direction – Yuri: thoughts about the offensive of the RF Armed Forces.

Judging by the information received today, the enemy is not yet able to build a continuous line of defense, especially in several echelons, as in the Donbass (not enough forces).

Its defense is built around communications centers in the hope that our units will not go forward, leaving them in the rear. He is given confidence by the fact that last summer the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed how they can work on the communications of our troops. And then there are the Hymers, which can really spoil our plans for us.

The tactics are dangerous for the Armed Forces of Ukraine because if we have much more forces than the enemy expects, and we will be able to solve the issue of covering the rear and the interaction of troops (and here we have a lot of progress compared to the summer, although not everything is as good as we would like ), then this can cause the collapse of the front. And then, in order to prevent this, the enemy will have to urgently transfer forces from other directions.

And there are already so few of them and this can cause crises in other “directions”.

And this gives us a unique chance (before spring) to carry out an offensive operation on a large scale.

The only question is can we? In fact, it’s not even the enemy that worries me more in this matter, but the ability of the military branches of the RF Verkhovna Rada to interact on the battlefield, communications, and rear. If critical problems can be avoided here, then there are chances of success.

Battle for Orekhovo situation by the end of January 20, 2023

🔻At the Orekhovsky sector, after the liberation of Lobkovoye, Russian troops swooped down and took the neighboring village of Malye Shcherbaki, knocking out the combined forces of the enemy from there.

▪️Immediately after the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, they were able to consolidate their success by blocking the Ukrainian formations in Shcherbaki. Also, Russian fighters advanced in the suburbs of Orekhov – Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka. The area is being cleaned up.

Establishing control over Lobkov and Shcherbak makes it possible to increase pressure on the Kamenskoye-Stepovoe line, where units of the 128th Guards Brigade, the 9th Gepard Regiment and the MTR group are located. And with the complete liberation of Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka, cover Orekhov from the south and east.

The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is complicated by the fact that the T0812 highway is under the complete fire control of Russian artillerymen, which makes it potentially dangerous to send reinforcements to conduct a counteroffensive due to a possible collapse of the front in Kamenskoye.

🔻Servicemen of the 291st regiment of the Russian Armed Forces have established control over several strongholds in the Novopokrovka area southeast of Orekhovo. The Armed Forces of Ukraine expect the continuation of the active assault on the Belogorye-Charivnoe line and in the direction of Gulyai-Pole.

Breaking through the first line of defense at this line with a simultaneous attack from the west will allow the military personnel of the RF Armed Forces to reach Orekhov from the east and develop an offensive on Gulyaipole, cutting the AFU grouping into two parts.

looks like the whole front is now active. With russian forces moving in all fronts and is pinning down AFU in all sectors - so hindering any shift of reserves.
Situation in the south (Zaporizhzhia ) is slowly boiling up – while RF is advancing SW of Bakhmut and north of Soledar
AFU tries Kuzemivka

The situation in the Zaporozhye region: the first line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been broken, there are already Russian DRGs in Orekhovo. Several settlements have already been liberated. Russian troops are on the offensive

The advance in the Donbass in the Artemovsk region at the moment completely broke all the plans of the Ukrainians. This is the real fettering and grinding of enemy reserves. Tales that only Troops and mobilized people fight there, and the Khokhol saves his trained and experienced reserves, please leave for naive fools like Bulba. According to the obituaries, it is clear that various special forces are dying, the SSO and experienced numbered brigades of the Ukrainian are ground into dust. Until a political decision is made to abandon the city, the Khokhol is suffering there now simply catastrophic losses, which he did not plan at all

I respect the BND the German intelligence service they are very professional and well informed. What puzzles me is the usage of the term “cannon fodder’. The AFU are facing the Wagner stormtroopers. As I understand western military tactics avoids close combat before an effective suppression of they enemy, i.e bomb the shit out of it. The Wagnerians seems to attack in a non conventional way. How high the casualty rate is among these storm trooper is unknown. It’s probably high, that doesn’t mean a lot of KIA though. But any way the Wagnerian tactics of attacking in urban areas seems to be very effective.  Looking forward for an analysis after the conflict..

Zin: The thing about Western tactics is that most of our (yes, I’m a Westerner) conflicts have been with weak states using technology 30 or 40 years (at least) behind our own. In my view, Russia attempted to approach Ukraine in the way that the USA approached Iraq and Afghanistan and quickly realized this wasn’t going to work. Air superiority is off the table when your enemy is of a sufficient size and has large numbers of S-300 air defense systems along with several others. Mind you, Western satellites and Intel were also at Ukraine’s disposal. Really, Ukraine was taking direct orders from the West this whole time. Drone warfare has also changed the tactical landscape as well. This is what a real conflict looks like in the modern age when you aren’t playing on easy mode.

Ukrainian channel “Resident”: Zaluzhny continues to insist on an urgent withdrawal of troops from Bakhmut, the situation in the city is very difficult, and holding positions costs great sacrifices for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  The commander-in-chief told Zelensky that the Russian army and PMC Wagner are trying to organize a tactical encirclement of Bakhmut in order to arrange a second Mariupol, when more than 2,000 Ukrainian military were captured t.me/rezident_ua/15980

Bakhmut IN DANGER, Klishchiivka Captured

MAJOR COLLAPSE South of Bakhmut.

Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny continues to insist on an urgent withdrawal of troops from Bakhmut, the situation in the city is very difficult, and holding positions costs great sacrifices for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The commander-in-chief told Zelensky that the Russian army and PMC Wagner are trying to organize a tactical encirclement of Bakhmut in order to arrange a second Mariupol, when more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers were captured.

https://t.me/resident_ua/15980

Our source in the OP said that the fate of Bakhmut will be decided next week, but for now, Zelensky demanded that Zaluzhny keep the city.

https://t.me/resident_ua/16015

Chronicle of a special military operation for January 20, 2023

🔻Belgorod region:

▪️Ukrainian formations shelled the village of Karabanovo in the Valuysky urban district: residential buildings were damaged, civilians were not injured.

🔻Starobelsk direction:

▪️On the Kupyansko-Svatovsky sector, the Ukrainian command is gathering manpower and armored vehicles for an offensive from the northwest to Kuzemovka.
➖Russian artillery conducts aimed fire at enemy concentrations in the vicinity of Novoselovsky.

▪️In the Liman sector, the situation has not changed significantly: artillery duels and positional battles continue along the line of contact.

🔻Soledar direction:

▪️At the Soledar sector, the assault detachments of the PMC “Wagner” are fighting with Ukrainian formations at the Krasnopolye-Razdolovka-Veseloye line, and are also advancing in the direction of Blagodatny.
➖Southwest of Soledar, Russian troops have entrenched themselves on the northern outskirts of Krasnaya Gora and are moving into the center of the settlement.
➖Enemy artillery randomly fires at Soledar and its environs: during one of the strikes, military commander Anastasia Yelsukova was injured, the victim was assisted.

▪️In Bakhmut, fierce clashes continue on the southern and eastern outskirts of the city. Units of PMC “Wagner” storm the positions of Ukrainian formations in the area of the meat processing plant.

▪️Southwest of Bakhmut, Russian troops complete the cleansing of the village of Kleshcheevka.

🔻Donetsk direction:

▪️Motorized rifles of the RF Armed Forces continue to fight on the western outskirts of Maryinka. Russian artillery inflicts intense strikes on enemy positions in the city.

▪️In the Ugledar sector, Russian reconnaissance groups uncovered the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the forest belt near the village of Elizovetovka and fired artillery at them.

▪️Ukrainian formations again shelled the settlements of the Donetsk agglomeration: residential buildings, power lines and a gas pipeline in Karlo-Marksovo were also under attack. There are casualties among civilians.

🔻Zaporozhye direction (map):

▪️In the Orekhovsky sector, Russian troops liberated Lobkovoe and Malye Shcherbaki, and also blocked the enemy in Shcherbaki. The capture of settlements will increase pressure on the Kamenskoye-Stepovoye line.
➖Subdivisions of the RF Armed Forces established control over Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka and Malaya Tokmachka. After cleaning up the vicinity of settlements, Russian troops will be able to continue their offensive against Orekhov.
➖South-east of Orekhov, servicemen of the 291st regiment of the RF Armed Forces knocked out Ukrainian formations from several strongholds in the Novopokrovka area.

▪️On the Pologovsky sector, units of the 5th combined-arms army occupied the dominant heights near the village of Malinovka.

The Ukrainian command is reinforcing the defenses at the Belogorye-Charivnoe line, expecting an offensive by Russian troops in this sector.

▪️The enemy fired at civilian facilities in Tokmak at night: treatment facilities and a veterinary plant were hit.

🔻 Southern Front. Kherson direction:

▪️Artillery duels continue along the line of contact: Russian troops hit the concentrations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Berislav, Antonovka, Kachkarovka, Tokarevka and the vicinity of Kherson.

Ukrainian formations fired at Kakhovka, there were no victims or injured.

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Russia is preparing for an offensive from three sides, which could begin as early as February,” Rustem Umerov, head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine, told the Daily Beast.

According to him, the attack will come from the north, across the Belarusian border, from Russian strongholds in eastern Ukraine and from the south. “The Russians surround us from 240 degrees, they attack from the Black Sea, from Belarus, Luhansk and Donetsk regions,” he said.

The US authorities are leaning towards the fact that Ukraine needs funds for strikes on Crimea, The New York Times has reported.

It notes that US authorities since the start of Russia’s special military operation have taken “a tough stance refusing to provide Kiev with weapons for strikes on the Crimean peninsula”. “Now that stance is beginning to soften,” the publication claims.

According to its sources, the Biden administration, following discussions with Ukrainian officials, “is beginning to lean toward the idea that Kiev may need” the means to strike Crimea, “even if such a move would increase the risk of escalation.” The issue, according to The New York Times, was recently raised in meetings at the White House.

“The softening comes as the Biden administration realises that if the Ukrainian military can demonstrate to Russia the possible vulnerability of its control over Crimea, it will strengthen Kiev’s position in any future negotiations,” the newspaper notes. In addition, according to its sources from among US officials and experts, “fears that the Kremlin will retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons have diminished”. At the same time, the paper pointed out that the Biden administration did not consider it possible that Crimea would fall under the control of the Ukrainian authorities as a result of a military takeover of the peninsula.

“Russia is a big country; it is used to fighting to the end, to almost losing, and then restoring everything.” She did it to Napoleon; she did it to Hitler. It would be absurd to think that Russia has lost the war or that its military is incompetent. Therefore, it is necessary to continue arming Ukraine — EU diplomatic chief Joseph Borell.

Well, and they were offended by Lavrov, who directly told them the same thing.

They represent themselves as the successors of Napoleon and Hitler(as they compare themselves with them) .Therefore, of course, we must make every effort not to shame our ancestors and do with Ukraine and NATO what our ancestors already did with Napoleon and Hitler — @Boris_Rozhin

Speaking of the shameless, the EU foreign minister Borrell just referred to Russia’s resistance to Napoleon and Hitler as evidence the West must not consider it defeated too soon, and continue arming Ukraine.

The Westoids seethed when Lavrov compared the current situation to those two historical invasions, but it’s Totally Different When We Do It, of course. Anyway, nice of Josep to admit the obvious, I guess.

There’s a problem with his premise, though: Russia isn’t losing. It’s taking on the combined military, financial and propaganda might of the entire “golden billion,” alone, and holding its own.

Another problem is Borrell’s apparent failure to think his analogy through. Both Napoleon and Hitler led multi-national coalitions against Russia, and in fact claimed to be representing all of “civilized” Europe in doing so. Napoleon actually managed to reach Moscow, but failed to compel Russia’s surrender — and his Grande Armee ended up being torn to pieces on the long, cold retreat to Berezina. Cossacks were soon in the streets of Paris.

Hitler’s troops didn’t even reach Moscow. They also froze, at Stalingrad, and were turned back at Kursk. End result: Cossacks in Berlin.

Whoever said the very definition of madness is doing the same thing while expecting a different result was spot on. The present-day West is a perfect case study.

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, following a meeting in Germany of the Western group that coordinates the supply of weapons and military equipment to Kyiv:
✔️ In order to conduct a successful offensive operation at the tactical and operational level, which is what we are actually talking about here about the Ukrainians, it is necessary not only to have personnel, but they must also be prepared, trained in the use of equipment.
✔️ Kyiv and the West have a relatively short window of opportunity to try to achieve such a goal. Am I sure? Yes, I think that this can be achieved.
✔️ President Biden, President Zelensky and most European leaders have said this war is likely to end at the negotiating table. From a military point of view, this is a very difficult battle. I still believe that it would be very difficult this year to force Russian forces out of every inch of Russian-occupied Ukraine by military means. It doesn’t mean it can’t happen, doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it would be very, very difficult. Ultimately, this war will end at some negotiating table. The timing will be determined by the leaders of both countries – Russia and Ukraine.

Everyone is talking about the imminent escalation of hostilities in Ukraine.
 Ukrainian sources, and officials in the West, are talking about the imminent start of the Russian offensive.  Apparently they have intelligence information about this.  Zelensky is nervous, demands urgently to give tanks.  Men of military age are being seized all over Ukraine to send them to the front.  Poland prepares bomb shelters.  Russia really should go on the offensive.  She simply has no choice and no time to wait until the West supplies its Ukrainian army with tanks and combat aircraft.  Escalation is inevitable, but escalation can be different.  So far, I see no reason for Russia to strike directly at any NATO country.  Moreover, there is no need to use nuclear weapons.  But this is what I think, and what Putin thinks this time, MI6 did not tell us.

Zhirinovsky predicted everything three years ago: Now the choice is for Eastern Europe. If Biden pursues a policy of Atlanticism, that is, the United States and all of Europe under their leadership, if the American administration manages to subjugate Europe, then Eastern Europe will lose completely. Then the crisis will escalate even more, and we will be forced at some stage – in three years, in five, in seven, but in any case, to resolve this conflict by 2030. And it can only be resolved through war.
We don’t want her! But they will impose on us. Mankind does not want to fight, but the only way out for the Western world is war. But the war on foreign territory and foreign soldiers. Rehearsal – Balkans, Karabakh, some complications in Central Asia.
The war will take place on the territory of Eastern Europe, it will be a victim. Hungary – probably not. Czech Republic – no, probably not. Most likely Poland and Ukraine, these are the two territories where detente will take place.
Their war will not be with Russia, they will mock us. Will force to pass to tough policy. It is impossible to endure when they pour mud everywhere, arrest money and property, and impose sanctions. As much as possible – only sanctions! This is done on purpose to cock us to a state of war.
But we have resources. They don’t have enough resources. They have money but lack natural resources. Therefore, the Poles and Ukraine are at risk, these are the two countries where the European war will unfold.

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Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_20.html