The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 31 2023

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Dmitry Medvedev: The West lacks the courage to admit that their sanctions against Russia have failed miserably, are not working.

Enemy countries do not have the courage to admit that their “hellish” sanctions have failed miserably. Does not work. The vast majority of industrial products and consumer goods were replaced by our own, Russian, and the missing ones – by Asian brands. Parallel imports also work, from which we get the same Western brands, and their owners get nothing. So everything is as always: the Americans make money on a humiliated Europe. Crushed Europe endures and loses money. At the same time, even the IMF predicts economic growth in Russia this year.

It remains only to adopt the rules on the use of their intellectual property. Without any licenses and payment of royalties. This, among other things, will be our retaliatory sanctions on their property rights. For everything from movies to industrial software. Thanks, by the way, to those who have developed various programs for the unlicensed use of their expensive intellectual products. In short, for piracy in personal sanctions mode. What, à la guerre comme à la guerre…

The Kremlin is confident in the correctness of the start of a special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. This was stated by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.
According to him, the special operation was necessary to save people living in the Donbass.

“Of course, we have been closely watching what is happening in Ukraine, and we have seen the ongoing militarization of Ukraine, we have seen Ukraine’s preparation to try to solve the Donbass problem by force,” Peskov said.

The press secretary of the head of the Russian state also said that the words of politicians such as Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko confirm that the Minsk agreements were only camouflage in order to prepare Ukraine for a forceful solution to the conflict in Donbass.

“This once again emphasizes that Putin did everything absolutely right when he decided to start the SMO in order to save the people who live in the Donbass,” said Dmitry Peskov.

We often hear ‘Kiev in 72 hours’ as a taunt. Well here is the origin of it (https://www.foxnews.com/us/gen-milley-says-kyiv-could-fall-within-72-hours-if-russia-decides-to-invade-ukraine-sources.amp). It was something General Milley said to Congress. And it was based on the Russians being willing to take 4,000 KIA in 72 hours, just to take Kiev. As KIA from the pre-2022 borders are about 12,500 so far – this analysis was wildly inaccurate. Worse, it does not even take into account post-1957 Soviet/Russian military history and military thinking. Plus, there is nothing in Gerasimov’s record as a commander  that would suggest he would ever countenance such an operational plan.

This is yet further proof – Kiev in 72 hours – that the very top of western officials and analysts have  little idea  what they are talking about. Or at the very least the dominant atmosphere is such that even those who do have a better idea of their subject cannot say anything.

The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as later this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov received a message from his American counterpart through the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs during a meeting in Moscow.

The US urges an immediate end to the war and for negotiations to begin.

Sergey Lavrov about the message delivered to him from Blinken by the Egyptian Foreign Minister: We have always said that Russia is ready to listen to any serious proposal that aims to resolve the current situation in a comprehensive context. Once again, we heard in this message that Russia must stop, Russia must leave, – and then everything will be fine. The second part of that call was not conveyed by Blinken, but this true U.S. and Western interest was laid out by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in South Korea. He said there that Russia must be defeated, and the West cannot allow Ukraine to lose, because that would be a defeat for the West and the whole world. So he took the liberty to speak on behalf of all countries in the world. And further, he said, “That’s why NATO will realize its global responsibility.” In my opinion, everything is clear here, we are not talking about Ukraine at all. The Kiev regime is carrying out the will of the United States, whose main goal is to prevent any events on the international scene that would call into question U.S. hegemony in today’s world. So the message was incomplete, and I have now tried to add for Blinken what the U.S. is trying to achieve when it calls on Russia to stop and withdraw from Ukraine.
 

A blow was dealt to Ochakov.

It is in this city that the naval base is located, which the United States planned to use as a command and control center for an attack on Crimea.

It did not work out… 

“British mercenaries who provided Ukrainian forces with special training in sabotage in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, have been eliminated by a Russian strike at the Ukrainian Navy base in Ochakov”

The aim of current NATO training is to get the current training cycle for Leopard 2s down to 5 weeks (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-aims-get-training-time-leopard-tanks-down-5-weeks-2023-01-31/) so that the Leopard 2s can be delivered to Ukraine at the beginning of March and be at the front by the middle of March. While this is worrying in so far as it will give Ukraine extra firepower and abilities with sophisticated, modern, and durable equipment, the survivability of these tanks with that amount of training for the crews is extremely dubious to put it mildly. This is prizing quick turn around and deployment over operational effectiveness.

According to Western experts, the diesel engine MB 873 Ka-501 of the Leopard 2 tank, although it has a high power output (1500 hp), but because it heats up to 580* makes the tank visible in the infrared range even to outdated thermal imaging cameras of the 1970s. 

Units of the former DNR army and volunteers (now formally part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) continue to attack towards Avdeevka northwest of Donetsk city. As can be seen the fighting is intense but progress is slow. Each and every building, and possible obstacle has over 8 years been turned into a strongpoint by the VSU, but the advance continues and Donbass will be free. 

The militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirm that the Konstantinovka-Artemovsk road is under the fire control of Russian units.

Another confirmation of the further advance of our troops to Krasny and Chasov Yar. The road through Chasov Yar is the last way to Artyomovsk available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It is also reported that at night the fighters of PMC “Wagner” began the assault on Artyomovsk from the northern and southern directions.

Battles are now taking place around 2km from Ivanviske. AFU officially no longer using this as an official supply, meaning they MUST use 1 route near Khromove which is extremely susceptible to Wagner Artillery.

Along the Artyomovsky direction

Right now, our valiant guys are storming Ivanovskoye, located on the Artemovsk-Konstantinovka highway. This is literally the last normal road for supplying the Bakhmut garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After blocking it from our side, the Ukrainian garrison definitely falls into almost complete encirclement.

To the north of Artyomovsk, Wagner’s stormtroopers are gradually liberating Vasyukovki, this n. the settlement is part of the second line of defense of Ukrainians after Soledar. The liberation of Vasyukovka with Ivanovsky will fatally complicate the position of the enemy directly in Artemivs. After that, the whole story with the defense of the city can end literally in a matter of days.

On the Chasov Yar Frontline, Wagner has advanced so much that now small arms fire can now disrupt Ukrainians who are travelling through the frontline. Ukrainian Forces have already begun using the line for Khromove. DRGs of Wagner are now even within the city. -Nabrezhnye

Battles for Ugledar continue

Heavy fighting continues for dachas on the outskirts of Ugledar. The enemy infantry, which has been accumulating in the houses for the last three days, has been thoroughly thinned out. Now they continue to resist the attack aircraft, artillery, and tanks, and the houses built to last are still coping with their new role as shelters.

The only solution is sniper pairs, which since the beginning of the assault have destroyed more than ten units of enemy manpower each on average.

The main enemy forces continue to remain in Ugledar and the mines. According to unconfirmed reports, a couple of tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were a nightmare for summer cottages, were sent to a scrap metal warehouse, but the enemy tanks did not end there.

The fighting is heavy, the parties bear mutual losses.

FULL FRONT UPDATE: Kherson, Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Siversk, Kreminna Explained

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Russian attacks around the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar

Russian invasion of Ukraine [31 Jan 2023] ‘Today’

@Rybar SMO sitrep for January 31, 2023

🔻 Border territories of the Russian Federation:

▪️In the Bryansk region, Ukrainian formations fired mortars at the village of Lomakovka: residential buildings, a store building and power lines were damaged. Civilians were not hurt.

At night, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the territory of the Novozybkovsky urban district. Power supply was interrupted in two settlements.

▪️In the Belgorod region, Russian air defense systems intercepted several enemy shells over the Shebekinsky district and the Belgorod region. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties or damage.

🔻Starobelsk direction:

▪️In the Kupyansko-Svatovsky sector, the situation has not changed significantly: artillery duels and positional battles continue along the line of contact.

▪️In the Limansky area, Ukrainian DRGs are operating in the Dibrova area, trying to gain a foothold in the gray zone. Russian UAV crews use drones to reveal the location of the APU soldiers and target artillery.

🔻Lugansk People’s Republic:

▪️Ukrainian formations fired rockets from the HIMARS MLRS at the city of Stakhanov in the morning. Residential buildings, civil infrastructure, power lines and a gas pipeline were damaged.

▪️In the afternoon, the enemy launched a missile attack on civilian targets in Kremennaya. At least three people were killed and several more were injured.

🔻Soledar direction:

▪️In the Soledar sector, Wagner PMC units are storming enemy strongholds in the direction of Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gora.

▪️Clashes continue in Bakhmut: “Wagne” are trying to push through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​the local meat processing plant and Zabakhmutovka.

▪️Southwest of Bakhmut, Russian troops are storming the positions of Ukrainian formations in the direction of Krasnoye and Stupochka.

🔻Donetsk direction:

▪️On the Avdeevsky sector, servicemen of the RF Armed Forces continue their offensive towards the village of Severnoye.
➖At the same time, Russian troops are fighting with the enemy in the Nevelskoye area.

▪️Clashes continue in Marinka. Artillery provides fire support to Russian units, striking the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the western outskirts of the city.

▪️In the Ugledar sector, the parties are fighting in the southeast of Ugledar. The Ukrainian command is transferring additional forces to the city.

▪️Ukrainian formations randomly shelled residential buildings and civilian infrastructure in Donetsk, Gorlovka, Makeevka, Yasinovataya and other settlements of the agglomeration.

🔻 Southern Front. Kherson direction:

▪️The enemy attempted to land troops in the area of ​​Lake Kruglik on the left bank of the Dnieper. Russian servicemen timely discovered the Ukrainian landing and destroyed it with accurate artillery fire.

▪️Artillery duels continue along the entire line of contact: units of the Russian Armed Forces hit the places of concentration of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of Kherson, Berislav, Zolotoy Balka and Antonovka.

In turn, the enemy again fired at the settlements on the left bank of the Kherson region: residential buildings in Geroisk, Gola Pristan and Aleshki were also under attack.

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (31 January 2023)
 
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

💥In Kupyansk direction, artillery of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces hit manpower and hardware of the 114th and 104rd territorial defence brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near the settlements of Masyutovka and Tabayevka (Kharkov region).

◻️The enemy’s losses in this direction during the day amounted to 45 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, four armoured fighting vehicles, a motor vehicle, and a D-20 howitzer.

💥In Krasny Liman direction, units of the 25th Airborne and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU close to Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as Serebryanskoye forestry area, were hit by artillery and heavy flamethrower systems.

◻️More than 60 Ukrainian troops and four armoured fighting vehicles were neutralised.

💥In Donetsk direction, as a result of a successful offensive, volunteers of assault groups, supported by fire of Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the ‘Yug’ Group of Forces, have liberated the village of Blagodatnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

◻️Up to 50 Ukrainian servicemen, a French Caesar self-propelled artillery system, a US-made M-777 artillery system, and an MSTA-B howitzer have been eliminated in this area during the day.

💥In South Donetsk direction, the ‘Vostok’ Group of Forces hit units of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Ugledar and the 110th Territorial Defence Brigade at Novopol (Donetsk People’s Republic).

◻️Over 40 servicemen, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and two pickup trucks of the AFU have been neutralised in this direction.

◻️In addition, two artillery ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been destroyed near the towns of Ugledar and Katerynovka in (Donetsk People’s Republic).

💥In Kherson direction, two Gvozdika self-propelled artillery units and two ammunition depots of the AFU near Mikhaylovka and Zmiyevka (Kherson region) were destroyed as part of a counter-battery operation.

💥Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 84 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, enemy’s manpower and hardware in 126 areas during the day.

💥Russian air defence facilities have shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Zolotaya Balka (Kherson region).

◻️Five UAVs were also intercepted in the areas of Kryvosheyevka, Oborotnovka, Krasnorechenskoye, Vladimirovka (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Belogrudovo (Kherson region).
Moreover, three US-made HIMARS MLRS shells were intercepted near the settlements of Zlatoustovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Skadovsk (Kherson region).

Special Operation, 31 Jan 2023, Main; pub. 22:37

▪️ Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reported that #Blagodatnoye (DPR) has been liberated; up to 50 Ukrainian servicemen, a French Caesar self-propelled artillery system and an M-777 artillery system manufactured in the USA have been destroyed there;

▪️ Russian air defence forces shoot down Ukrainian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter in #Kherson region;

▪️ Russian troops have liberated or taken under operational or fire control 9 settlements in the #Zaporozhye region this year, Rogov said;

▪️ Ukrainian troops tried to force a crossing of the #Dnepr River near #Kherson, the attempt was repulsed, regional authorities said;

▪️ Russian troops are taking all measures to ensure that Western plans in #Ukraine are not destined to come to fruition, Lavrov said;

▪️ An air alert has been declared throughout #Ukraine;

▪️ France will send Ukraine 12 more CAESAR howitzers, and there is no taboo for Paris on possible deliveries of fighter jets to #Ukraine, French defence minister said;

▪️ Lithuanian president says West has “more than once managed to erase red lines” and calls for fighter jets to be given to Kiev;

▪️ Ukraine will need about 200 Western fighter jets, with the US F-16 the “most likely candidate” for rearmament, the Ukrainian air force said;

▪️ Sending planes to #Ukraine inadvisable, UK prime minister’s spokesman said;

▪️ US will not supply #Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, Biden said;

▪️ Any possible supply of Western tanks to #Ukraine will not solve anything – they will become another target, Pushilin said;

▪️ Most of the problems with the uniforms of the mobilized have been solved, Prosecutor General Krasnov said at a meeting with Putin;

▪️ Education Minister Kravtsov said that heroes of the special operation will be included in the “pantheon of heroes” and this will be reflected in history textbooks and films. A history textbook that includes the SMO theme will be piloted as early as this academic year;

▪️ The Kremlin is confident that it was right to launch the special operation – it was necessary in order to save people in #Donbass, Peskov said.

War Map and the Situation on the Fronts in the Evening of 31 Jan 2023; pub. 00:05

💀 The Wagner PMC continues to advance in and around #Artyomovsk, knocking the enemy militants out of any stronghold even without using equipment, as happened (https://t.me/bayraktar1070/732) north of #Kleshchiyevka. Miles of trenches and concrete bunkers did not help. (figure 2)

After the liberation of #Blagodatnoye, the “bandits” came out (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/76793) to a crossroads near the villages of “Sakko and Vantsetti”, where heavy fighting is taking place. There are also gains in the #Artyomovsk itself, where Wagner PMC fighters are pressing on to the east and south of the city. (figure 3)

⚔️ Situation on the Fronts for the past Day

♦️#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:

Two Territorial Defence Brigades have been hit by Russian artillery strikes in the areas of #Masyutovka and #Tabayevka. Also, two Airborne Assault Brigades of the AFU were hit by by artillery and heavy flamethrower systems in the areas of #Yampolovka of the DPR and #Serebryanskoye forestry.

♦️#Zaporozhye Direction:

Heavy fighting continues in the southeast of #Ugledar, with our fighters clinging to every metre, despite the regular arrival of additional enemy forces in the town. Also, the Ministry of Defense announced the destruction of two warehouses of the AFU in the areas of #Ugledar and #Katerinovka.

💥 Footage (https://t.me/sitreports/4000) (18+) of a Ukrainian Mi-8 shot down in the vicinity of the DPR’s #Spornoye has emerged. (figure 4)

☠️ This morning militants attempted to land on the Russian controlled bank of the #Dnepr River. The enemy managed to gain a foothold (https://t.me/dva_majors/8507) in nearby houses, but were met and extincted by rocket and barrel artillery.