The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 04 2023

DANGEROUS CIRCLES ON DONBASS FRONT LINE

Fighting reported at Stupka district in North Bakhmut; Ukraine reinforce city!

The Ukrainian armed forces withdrew from the northern districts of Artemovsk
This information was confirmed by Wagner PMC. The “musicians” have already entered the northern districts of the city and have begun to clean them up.
Control of some roads south of the city is also confirmed. From the east, “Wagnerites” are advancing from Soledar.
We can therefore say that Bakhmut has already been taken to a semicircle and the liberation of the city is not far away

The 3rd Azov commander: “The situation in Bakhmut is really very tense. The Russians threw huge forces on the offensive. Fighting has been going on on the outskirts of the city for more than a day, but the last day they have been as strong as possible. We are preparing for a heavy defense.”
“I won’t make any predictions…”  

Russian and Wagner Forces appear to have launched a Large Assault on the City of Bakhmut with the last few hours, according to a Ukrainian Commander within the City the situation is extremely tense and difficult with the current Russian Assault being the strongest they have seen. Via pro Ukrainian sources 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine leave the burning Bakhmut, unable to withstand the battle with the fighters of the PMC “Wagner”:

“We came out of this hell, we barely left in small groups. Its bad, guys, it is really fucked up there, it is really  Hell.”

Assault groups of the “orchestra” continue to advance in the city. There is a result – the streets and a number of objects in the city are taken, the clashes are violent.

Artemovsk (Bakhmut) – the agony of the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
 Judging by the falling speed of the resistance of the APU units in Artemovsk, they received an order to leave. In the morning there was information that the most combat-ready were leaving the city, and then more and more data began to appear on the progress of the PMC Wagner within this settlement.
This means that the coming days (or maybe a day or two) may be the last for parts of the Kiev regime when they still at least partially control this city

There are active fights around Artyomovsk. PMC “Wagner” works there. The encirclement of the city is completed. It remains to physically go to the track that leads from Artemovsk to Chasov Yar. And a huge cauldron is formed. Inside which will remain a large contingent of the enemy. There is every chance to take the city. Not getting involved in heavy bloody street fights. I hope that our troops from Gorlovka will be able to help the “musicians” on the other side to arrange this cauldron.

We are forcing the enemy to drag his reserves along the huge line of contact. To respond to our offensive actions at different points in the SMO zone.

Active hostilities are going on at the Svatovsky line. During the week we repulsed the attacks. After these “dagger” attacks, they launched a successful offensive. The positions that were lost last year were recovered. I think the idea is to build a line of defense along a natural barrier – along the river. Alexander Kots (https://t.me/sashakots) on air of @SolovievLive with Roman Golovanov:

Adviser to the Presidential Office Mikhail Podolyak refused to name the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Bakhmut, but noted that Ukraine “pays the highest price” for holding the city

Arestovich admits the “huge AFU losses” and “philosophizes” on the subject of the huge casualties of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

“Sentiments about burning the army disappear by the first session in the command school or by the end of the first year. And those who are strongly sentimental do not rise above the rank of a major or a senior officer. There are no such categories; they were all trained for the big war, where the life expectancy of a motorized rifle regiment is 45 minutes. They got used to that idea by the time they completed four tactics classes. And casualties… What are casualties? These people, the Soviet school, were preparing for World War III with the full spectrum of nuclear weapons. Casualties are not an argument at all! These men’s value systems have long ago been prepared for losses that are a hundred times greater than those we have now suffered. They are not interested in losses at all. “They’re only interested in getting the job done.”, Aristovich said (https://t.me/slavaded1337/10443).

While a retreat from Artemovsk cannot be confirmed, the situation for the AFU is becoming more difficult by the hour. Several reports indicate that the Western masters want Ukraine to retreat to a stronger line of defense as the RF did when faced with the potential for a meat grinder in Kharkov and Kherson. However, all reports indicate that Zelensky and his circle are willing to hold Bakhmut to the last Ukrainian.

These gains and the turning fortunes are the result of the calculated decisions of the Russian military leaders and the grit and determination of the Wagner Orchestra. I’d give the latter much more credit than the former, but ultimately, given limited resources, I believe that the leadership made the right decisions to prepare for this eventuality.

The Spring brings new wunderwaffen, glide bombs and heavy tanks/armored vehicles, and the possibility of another Ukro Offensive. The Crimea is the big fish for them, but we’ll see if they even get those plans in motion. Really, they’d need 5 times as many tanks as the West is currently offering, and far more than that relative to what we will actually see delivered.

Still, be prepared for a bloody and brutal slog. There are no easy days ahead. I’m sure we’ll see what else the West and the Kyiv puppets have up their sleeve before this is all over.

Over the past hour, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired another 13 shells at Donetsk – the central districts of the city remain under attack by Ukrainian militants

 The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell the Kirovsky, Kuibyshevsky and Kirovsky districts of Donetsk. Ukrainian militants are again targeting civilian infrastructure. The mayor of the city reports that shelling continues with 155 mm shells.

Recall that the shelling of the city has not stopped since the morning: at least one woman was injured as a result of a hit on an apartment building. There are still people under the collapsed floors of the building, and the removal of rubble continues on the spot.

Battlefield Ukraine Russian Army Corp Massing in Mariupol

Mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko: Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers are being brought to the outskirts of Mariupol, the occupiers are preparing for a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.

Battles near Kherson: ours are burning the positions of the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacking our bank of the Dnieper

Positional battles continue between the two banks, our intelligence reveals firing points and positions of Nazi artillery, from where they hit the settlements of the Kherson region.
Also, saboteurs of the special forces of the GUR, MTR and other similar units are concentrating near the coast, who are trying to break through to our bank of the Dnieper at night.

In Kupyansk direction, units of the “Western” group of troops of the RF Armed Forces knocked out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the western outskirts of Mesopotamia, Kharkiv region – RF Ministry of Defense

Russian forces captured Bilohorivka (Luhansk); attacks Hryhorivka & Serebryanka

[ Kreminna Offensive ] Russian forces attack across entire front; breakthru across river at Hrekivka

Russia’s 2nd Offensive Begins In Kreminna! 4 Feb 23 Ukraine Map Update!

Kupyansk direction situation by February 4, 2023.

▫️In the Tavil’zhanka area,Russian Army broke through the defense of the AFU in Dvorichna and gained a foothold on the western and northwestern outskirts of the village. At the moment, fighting continues for control of the settlement.

▫️Also, Russian assault groups are attacking the positions of the AFU in Gorobyevka and Hryanikovka from the Lymnan Pershyi 1, hampering the capabilities of the 106 battalion of the 109 obr TRO of the AFU in this area.

▫️At the Kupyansk site, the gunners of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation provide fire support to the advancing forces. The defense strongholds in Kupyansk, Sinkovka, Petropavlovsk and Golubovka, as well as ammunition and food depots, were hit.

▫️Members of Ukrainian formations spread information about the difficult situation in the vicinity of Kupyansk due to heavy losses in manpower. Some units moved to reserve positions for regrouping.

▫️The offensive of the Russian Army with a wide front from Kupyansk to Bakhmut allows to stretch the defense of the AFU and bind forces in certain directions.

▫️Now the servicemen of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are locally storming the Ukrainian fortified areas at Kupyansk, Svatove, Lyman and Siversk sites, and are also actively advancing in Bakhmut.

▫️The number of daily losses throughout the front is growing, and the rate of replenishment has significantly decreased.

▫️The simultaneous offensive in the east of Ukraine does not allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to concentrate on the defense of one area, which increases the effectiveness of the actions of Russian servicemen.

Konstantinovka! Danger! Information from the field about signs of preparation by Kyiv of a large-scale provocation in Konstantinovka is being confirmed.

Residents report a hidden exodus of remaining government workers.

According to another version, the city is being prepared for surrender or defense.

The civilian population was not warned.

Also:

❗️Donetsk Front! Attention !

Reliable sources provide information about the movement of large enemy columns from Konstantinovka to Chasov Yar.

The further transfer of reinforcements to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) is not ruled out.

⭐️Earlier, the enemy has already lost several columns of equipment with personnel. Despite the losses trying to keep the city.

By evening, reports of successful offensive operations by our troops continue to arrive.
1. In the Krasnolimansky direction, our troops continue to crush in the forest near Dibrovo and Yampolovka, as well as near Makkevka.
2. In the Kupyansk direction, the battles for Dvurech’ye continued. The enemy lost positions near the village.
3. In the Seversky direction, PMC “Wagner” fought in the area of Razdolovka and in the direction of Vasyukovka. Fighting also continued at Spornoye.
4. In the Artemovsky direction, our assault groups continued to push through the enemy defenses in the southern and southeastern quarters of the city, as well as in the area of the meat processing plant. To the south there is some progress towards Krasne. To the north of the city, battles continued for Paraskovievka and Krasnaya Gora.

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (4 February 2023)

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

💥 In Kupyansk direction, the offensive operations, conducted by the units of the ‘Zapad’ Group of Forces, have resulted in dislodging the enemy from the western outskirts of Dvurechnoye (Kharkov region).

◽️ The attacks, launched by Army Aviation and artillery, have resulted in the neutralisation of the units from 92nd Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) near Krakhmalnoye and Berestovoye (Kharkov region).

◽️ Over 30 Ukrainian personnel, 2 armoured fighting vehicles, and 3 motor vehicles have been eliminated.

💥 In Krasny Liman direction, the ‘Tsentr’ Group of Forces has continued its offensive operations.

◽️ Concentrations of manpower and hardware from 80th and 95th airborne assault brigades of the AFU have been neutralised near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic), Serebryanka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

◽️ Over 100 Ukrainian personnel, 6 armoured fighting vehicles, 1  fighting vehicle equipped with BM-21 Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS), and 1 D-30 howitzer have been eliminated.

💥 In Donetsk direction, the offensive operations, conducted by the ‘Yug’ Group of Forces, have resulted in gaining more advantageous lines and positions.

◽️ The artillery attacks and active action have resulted in the elimination of up to 60 Ukrainian personnel, 3 armoured fighting vehicles, 4 motor vehicles, 1 Msta-B howitzer, 1 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer, and 1 fighting vehicle equipped with BM-21 Grad MLRS.

◽️ 2 AFU ordnance depots have been destroyed near Kramatorsk and Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic).

◽️ U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-36, AN/TPQ-37, and AN/TPQ-50 counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed near Markovo, Tikhonovka, and Novomikhaylovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

💥 In South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, the artillery attacks, launched by the units of the ‘Vostok’ Group of Forces, have resulted in the elimination of over 35 Ukrainian personnel, 1 tank, 2 armoured personnel carriers, as well as 2 Msta-B howitzers near Prechistovka and Ilyinka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

💥 In Kherson direction, counterbattery warfare operations have resulted in the destruction of 1 fighting vehicle equipped with BM-21 Grad MLRS near Novokairy (Kherson region).

◽️ 1 ordnance depot has been destroyed near Tokarevka (Kherson region).

💥 Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised 92 AFU artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware in 108 areas.

💥 Air defence facilities have destroyed 13 unmanned aerial vehicles near Raygorodok, Belogorovka, Kremennaya, Golikovo, Krasnorechenskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic), Aleksandrovka, Novosyolovka, Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), Malaya Tokmachka, Stepanovka (Zaporozhye region), and Tyaginka (Kherson region).

◽️ 4 rocket-propelled projectiles, launched by Olkha and HIMARS MLRS, as well as 1 Tochka-U tactical missile have been shot down near Oborotnovka, Goncharovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), and Terny (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Special Operation, 4 Feb 2023, Main; pub. 22:19

▪️ 63 captive servicemen returned to #Russia, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) said;

▪️ The group of 63 Russian servicemen includes those in the “sensitive category” whose exchange was made possible through the mediation of the UAE authorities, MoD also said;

▪️ Russian Federation does not set limits on its response to attacks, depending on the nature of the threat #Russia is ready to use all kinds of weapons, Medvedev said;

▪️ A number of British officials opposed the transfer of NLAW missile systems to #Ukraine, not wanting to provoke #Russia, Johnson said;

▪️ More than 8,000 residents of #Russia’s new regions apply daily for Russian passports, the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs told RIA Novosti;

▪️ Ukrainian troops knocked out from the outskirts of #Dvurechnoye in Kharkov region, Kiev lost more than 130 troops in #Kupyansk and Krasno #Liman directions in a day, MoD said;

▪️ Russian aviation, missile forces and artillery hit Ukrainian personnel and military equipment in 108 areas overnight, MoD added;

▪️ The participants of the #Ukraine – #EU summit in #Kiev will be frustrated, they will be responsible to the population for financing the geopolitical game “to the last Ukrainian,” Zakharova said.

War Map and the Situation on the Fronts in the Evening of 4 Feb 2023; pub. 00:10⚡️

ðŸ´‍☠️ Ukrainian militants have been shelling (https://t.me/readovkanews/51958) central areas of #Donetsk since early morning (figure 3). One of the apartment buildings in Kievsky district partially collapsed (https://t.me/readovkanews/51960), up to five people may be under the rubble (https://t.me/readovkanews/51972). The consequences of strikes (https://t.me/readovkanews/51969) on civilian infrastructure in Kirovsky, Kievsky and Kuybyshevsky districts have been recorded, and there are casualties. There was also shelling in #Gorlovka, as a result of which an elderly woman was killed.

⚔️ Situation on the Fronts for the past Day

🔹#Svatovo – #Kremennaya Direction:

▪️ The Russian army has launched an offensive near #Kremennaya. Ours advanced as far as #Yampolovka DPR and knocked out the Territorial Defence near #Dibrova, as well as pressuring near #Makeyevka LPR.

▪️ Fighting continues (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/77228) in #Dvurechnoye in the #Kupyansk area, in parallel we are advancing on AFU positions in #Gorobyevka and #Gryanikovka in the #Kharkov region.

▪️ In addition, the advance of the Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the liberation of #Belogorovka opens up another exit to #Seversk.

🔹#Artyomovsk (#Bakhmut) Sector:

▪️ Wagner PMC fighters are crushing the enemy in the southern and southeastern quarters of #Artyomovsk, advancing in parallel to #Krasnoye.
➖ Also, military correspondents confirm (https://t.me/readovkanews/51988) the entry of the “orchestrators” into the northern part of the city (figure 2), a mop-up is currently underway there.

📌 It can already be argued that #Artyomovsk has been effectively taken in a semicircle, which leaves the militants with no option but to retreat.

🔹#Zaporozhye Direction:

▪️ The Russian Ministry of Defence has reported the destruction of more than 35 militants, one tank, two APCs and two MSTA-B howitzers in the vicinity of #Prechistovka and #Ilyinka DPR by artillery fire.

💡 There is evidence that three that three large columns of militants were heading (https://t.me/readovkanews/51981) towards #Dimitrov DPR (figure 1). Among them, a large number of Grad MLRS were seen. These forces could be used by the AFU in any direction, but the most logical would be to move them to #Ugledar, where the Russian army is conducting heavy battles.

Russia-Ukraine war: Over 100 soldiers freed in prisoner swap

Ukraine Releases Video of Prisoners Freed in Swap

The AFU prisoners returned from Russian captivity are clearly on the rise.

They are definitely eager to get back in the ranks and get back to the front as soon as possible.

Their faces “glow with happiness and confidence”.

Two majors (https://t.me/two_majors)

Zelenski’s office ordered the search of Klitschko and his entourage

Among the reasons, political expert Svetlana Kušnir cites the manipulations of the mayor, who has serious contacts with international representatives from the EU and the USA, as well as ignoring many decrees of the president’s cabinet.

The dedemocratization of Ukraine increases 

According to the Ukrainian channel “Legitimny”

The Office of the President has long been working on options for delivering strikes on the territory in the depths of Russia. This will allegedly raise the falling morale among the Ukrainian masses and provoke panic in the Russian Federation.
They also want to disrupt the summer season in Crimea by constantly striking at the peninsula.
According to rumors from the OP, this will be possible closer to April-May, according to functionaries based on the weapons they receive.

US officially confirms transfer of high-precision long-range missiles to Ukraine
We are transferring GLSDB bombs to Ukraine which will allow Ukraine to fire at greater distances and regain its territories

Medvedev on Kiev’s plans to return Crimea
“Crimea is Russia, an attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia and an escalation of the conflict. Ukrainian gang of drug addicts must understand that retaliation with any kind of weapon is inevitable for such attacks
 

The main from the statements of Dmitry Medvedev:

◾️ In the event of Ukraine’s strikes on Crimea, “there will be no negotiations”, there will only be retaliation strikes;

◾️ Ordinary EU citizens are paying for sanctions, arms supplies to the Kyiv regime, support for trade wars and blockades;

◾️ Washington could “with the snap of a finger” end the Ukrainian conflict, which he himself provoked, but is simply not interested in it;

◾️ Medvedev called for sympathy not with Europeans suffering from the consequences of sanctions, but with the people of Donbass who are being attacked by the Nazis;

◾️ The response in the event of strikes in the Crimea and deep into Russia will be quick, tough and convincing;

◾️ Russia, depending on threats, is ready to use all types of weapons in accordance with its doctrines, including nuclear.

The old story of “88 German tanks” has finally come to conclusion:

The Germans are handing over 88 tanks to Ukraine! And the British – 14. So the Nazi symbol 14/88 is reproduced. Thus the message is clear.

The beast is agonizing and in his fury does not even care to hide his grimace.

US to provide longer-range missiles in latest aid package for Ukraine

Moscow rails against Israel arming Ukraine

US warns Turkiye to stop exports to Russia, says ‘it will empower Ukraine’s war efforts’

Turkey Brutally Avenged the US & NATO for Old Grievances┃Erdogan is Skillfully Using his Trump Card

Source in the Office of the President said that Zelensky is not happy with the format of Western aid, due to the extended delivery times. For a counteroffensive, at least 300 tanks are needed to form a brigade, and in the spring there will be only 70-90 tanks.

Ladies and gents, the EU approved a price cap on Russian oil.  This is not a bad thing at all…well, not for Russia if they play their cards right.  Think of this:  If Putin demands payment in gold, roughly two grams of gold for one barrel of oil, it would collapse the European and the western banking system very fast.  They need the oil, but their banks are insolvent.  This is actually a blessing in disguise for Russia if it’s handled the right way. —Dark Z

NATO soldiers give up their jobs, they are offered contracts with their home country, then they are only contract employees, then they go to Ukraine and use the weapons that were supplied.

Legally, there are no more NATO soldiers. Reality it is different.

What a Russian spring offensive in Ukraine could look like — The Telegraph (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/04/what-russian-spring-offensive-ukraine-could-look-like/)

The AFU  will eventually have to retreat from Artemovsk (Bakhmut)

Mr Zelensky this week ruled out a retreat, saying on Thursday: “No one will surrender Bakhmut.
But among many people on the ground in Donbas, there is a feeling that Ukraine will eventually have to withdraw to a new line of defence – just as it did when retreating from Severodonetsk last summer.

The small town of Chasov Yar, the last stop before Bakhmut itself, is rapidly emptying as residents flee before it too becomes a battlefield.

But Bakhmut, which has drawn in vast numbers of Ukrainian troops, tanks and other resources, may prove a diversion.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US defence think tank, said on Friday that Russia’s main offensive effort would come further north, in the Luhansk region near the towns of Svatove and Kreminna.

A strike here might seek to catch the Ukrainians off balance in a less heavily defended area.
A Ukrainian officer based in Kharkiv told The Telegraph that intelligence showed the Russians were “getting ready” for a renewed offensive.

In an assessment that overlaps with the ISW’s prediction, he said they would probably attack from the east in an attempt to retake all the territory they lost to a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region in September.
The first objective of that push would be to push the Ukrainians back from the critical supply line between Valyuki, a small town in Russia’s Belgorod region, to Svatove in the Luhansk region

They would then seek to cut the highway between Kharkiv and Izyum to interdict Ukrainian lines of supply to Donbas, he said. He said they did not have sufficient forces to attack Kharkiv city itself and doubted they would try.

And the Ukrainian officer in Kharkiv told the Telegraph he would not be surprised to see a strike further north straight across the border, perhaps in the Sumy region. The region has seen almost daily cross-border shelling, but no fighting since the Russian retreat in March. “There are many places they could go,” he said

But the wild card is in the south, said Kirill Mikhailov, an independent military researcher based in Kyiv.
“I don’t think they have the resources to do ‘February 24 redux’, an offensive on all fronts. But they’ve now got enough mobilised men to use them to hold the front lines, and concentrate their most experienced troops for a dangerous offensive in one area,” he said.

An attack on the southern front, which has been static for most of the war, would take advantage of the terrain and threaten the main supply routes to Ukrainian forces in Donbas.“It’s tank country down there,” he said, referring to the largely open spaces of the Black Sea lowlands.
“But they would also have to cover a lot of ground. It is 50 to 60 kilometres from the current front line to the highway from Dnipro to Donetsk.”

Bad News, Russia Plans a Major Offensive at the End of February with 500,000 Troops

German tanks in the Ukraine. Again

Poland’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is ‘absolutely crucial’: Polish ambassador

Battlefield Ukraine Why The Russians did not cut off the Polish border

Unconfirmed reports that Belgorod region has 150k troops preparing to advance into Ukraine.

In the Belarus borders, Russia has over 100k preparing to move in.

Around 700k Russian soldiers will take part in the offensive from all fronts.

Again, this is not confirmed.

Russian invasion of Ukraine [4 Feb 2023] ‘today’

Will the EU let Ukraine join the bloc?

U S Not Prepared to take on Russia Col Doug Macgregor

From Soledar to Sanctioned by the UK Government

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