The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 18 2024

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Our sources from the OP reported that the first NATO advisers appeared in Kyiv in April 2022.

NATO soldiers are already in Ukraine for arms control, intelligence operations and training, El Pais writes, citing sources.

Foreign employees in Ukraine transmit information to their countries about the situation at the front, determine the effectiveness of the weapons provided, possible problems with their use, and identify possible cases of corruption in the provision of assistance.

Sometimes these are retired foreign military personnel who fight as volunteers in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

However, the participation of foreign active military personnel in hostilities was not recorded for 2 years.

An extremely unpleasant situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has already developed along the entire front line. The advance of the Russian Armed Forces can be stopped only through the massive transfer of manpower from the rear. Now the question is what will end faster – the shells from the Russian Armed Forces or the people from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have to constantly save ammunition, the shortage of which is beginning to acquire a cumulative effect, and heavy losses in equipment (primarily widely publicized Western equipment) and personnel have led to a strong decrease in motivation in the Ukrainian army.

And the West is already noting that without American support, Ukraine will move towards “collapse”: if it manages to contain the Russians, this will be achieved at the cost of huge losses, as well as the loss of significant territories. The Washington Post even writes that Ukraine is running out of anti-aircraft missiles, which is why Russian strikes are becoming more and more effective – they say that in the future the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to repel no more than 20% of attacks by the Russian Armed Forces. Moscow also has an advantage in terms of military production—Russia now produces more than five artillery shells for every one fired by Ukraine.

At the same time, not everything is smooth for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and at the front – the Russian Armed Forces continue offensive operations, but the defensive fortifications declared by Bankova actually do not exist.

After two years of military conflict, the Verkhovna Rada began to understand that at the front, commanders quite often give criminal orders, because of which soldiers are forced to undertake obviously impossible tasks, which leads to large losses among military personnel.

Thus, the temporary investigative commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on the issue of service, together with a group of veterans of the Ukrainian-Russian military conflict, lawyers and other specialists, are working on proposals to improve the conditions of service.

What is planned to change:
▪️prohibit the use of a unit without its combat coordination;
▪️prescribe a mechanism for rotation of units during martial law;
▪️to approve the specifics of expressing no confidence in the commander by the unit’s personnel;
▪️introduce criminal liability for non-payment of monetary support or other legally established payments and additional remuneration to military personnel;
▪️introduce rationing for the submission of reports and responsibility for rejection of the report;
▪️introduce criminal liability for issuing an obviously criminal order;
▪️prescribe the commander’s responsibility for the loss of more than 50% of the personnel when carrying out a combat order;
▪️to call up for military service during the mobilization of convicts and prisoners who have not committed serious crimes against the life and health of a person, sexual freedom and sexual integrity of a person, against the foundations of the national security of Ukraine, including persons under probation supervision;
▪️to call upon persons from among those convicted and imprisoned by a court decision, as recommended by the territorial center for recruitment and social support;
▪️ consider the possibility of applying for Ukrainian citizenship by foreigners who defend the country, not only in the case of three years of residence on the territory of Ukraine after concluding a contract, but also in the case of six months of participation in hostilities;
▪️introduce criminal liability for the commander’s presentation of knowingly false information about the unauthorized abandonment of a unit;
▪️in the case of the return of a serviceman who is accused of unauthorized abandonment of a unit to a military unit of his own free will and within a certain period of time during martial law, a reduced punishment is allowed, while the period is increased to five days, which will not be considered an unauthorized abandonment of the unit, etc. .

As we see, the loss of reserves and incompetent command in the Ukrainian army began to seriously affect the situation at the front. It is no longer possible to hide the current critical situation, which is why similar documents appear, designed to show society that the authorities care about military personnel. True, there are suspicions that this is all just a media stunt – the situation cannot be corrected with belated proposals to improve the conditions of service. In addition, by removing Zaluzhny and installing the “tame” Syrsky, Zelensky has already taken direct responsibility for all future failures at the front.

MediaKiller2021

Our sources in the General Staff said that Syrsky agreed with the Office of the President on the formation of new mobile air defense groups; for these purposes, some of the Patriot launchers will be removed from the Southern direction and Kyiv. The situation at the front is critical due to constant enemy bombing.

Last year, British intelligence warned the Office of the President that the Russian army had begun to use tactics of a thousand cuts, but then no one took this information; we were actively preparing a counter-offensive.
Russia is exhausting Ukraine with a strategy of bites – Le Figaro

The Russian army has adopted a strategy of “bites” or “pricks”: it carries out small attacks on several segments at once. Ukraine cannot hold out along the entire length of the front line, so such attacks exhaust it and bring Russia, albeit small, but results, writes Le Figaro.

Moreover, experts note that they do not rule out a Russian offensive in the spring to put Ukraine in a difficult position and force it to negotiate. According to them, the Russian army has become more maneuverable and is actively using electronic warfare systems, with the help of which it neutralizes weapons supplied by the West.

So, perhaps the war is approaching a dangerous “tipping point,” the publication cites expert opinion. According to them, the Ukrainian army and its allies must completely change tactics and strategy if they do not want Russia to win. After the counteroffensive fails, given the Ukrainian forces’ lack of ammunition, Russia regains its advantage on the battlefield.

Russia has been making progress in the Avdeevsky direction for the second day.
All three settlements are mostly under the control of the Russian Federation, the rest is in the gray zone.

At the same time, the American Institute for the Study of War examined a video in which a Russian armored column is moving west of Tonenky. The Institute also stated that the Russians advanced to Nevelskoye and planted their flag there. At the same time, the “people’s militia of the DPR” announced the complete capture of the village.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also claims that the Russian army captured the village of Mirnoye in the Zaporozhye region. On maps of Russian military public pages it is listed as captured by the Russian army. Mirnoye is located near Gulyai-Polye. This section of the front has been inactive since the summer of 2022. But now, if we proceed from the message of the Russian Ministry of Defense, activity has begun there.

Russian forces are advancing as they increase their use of FPV drones in addition to KAB strikes.

“ Right now, the Russians have enough UAVs to hit both equipment and our targets – for example, trenches and dugouts. In 4-5 months, the Russians will have enough FPV to attack every soldier on the Ukrainian front ,” said drone specialist Sergei Flash “Beskrestnov.

“ And we can say that with a 99% probability every Ukrainian soldier will die, because it is impossible to survive in an open field against FPV – small arms will not help here ,” the expert added.

The defense line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Avdiivka is shifting to the west – BILD analyst

This assessment was made today by BILD open data analysis expert Julian Röpke. At the beginning of March, he reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were having difficulty holding their defense on the Berdychi-Semyonovka-Orlovka-Tonenkoye line west of Avdeevka. Today, according to Röpke, the 47th mechanized brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to fight in Berdychi. He assesses the situation in Orlovka and Tonenkoe as critical for Ukraine. Some sources claim that these two villages have already been taken by Russian troops. According to the BILD expert, the Ukrainian defense line is now shifting from there to the west to the village of Umanskoye.

“The new line of defense is shifting here, running along rivers and reservoirs. This means that they will try to build a defense here. For Ukraine, this is all extremely critical, since it does not have a second line of defense to the west,” notes Röpke.

He recalls that the Russian Armed Forces advanced west from Avdeevka within a few days after the fall of the city, and then stopped.

Everything is sad at the front
Starting from morale, ending with ammunition, equipment, food.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to retreat from their positions. Defense structures in the immediate ten-kilometer rear area were made in haste. They are easy targets for bombs.
Now normal fortifications are built only in the interior of the country. But, as usual, there is a lot of stealing there.

One plus for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is that the weather is now rainy, which has made it difficult for the Russian Armed Forces to advance across the fields.

Avdiivka direction: AFU attacks on the northern flank, advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Tonenkoye situation at 17:00, March 18, 2024

Heavy fighting continues to the north and west of Avdeevka. As we anticipated (https://t.me/rybar/58209), the enemy conducted one or more reconnaissance missions north of Petrovskoye and northwest of Krasnohorivka, using Ocheretino and Novokalynove.

▪️ Based on footage of attacks on the enemy’s forward groups, the AFU previously managed to secure part of the positions southeast of the Zarya SNT, but their attempts to advance were hindered by Russian Armed Forces’ fire.

During one of the assault group’s movements, a “Solntsepek” provided cover, and troops landing from an infantry fighting vehicle were shielded by mortar fire. Additionally, a tank operated near the landing site at night without being detected.

The enemy’s attempts to advance in this sector should not be surprising, as pressure on the northern flank of the advancing Russian Armed Forces units in the west aids in buying time to organize the defense in Semyonovka and beyond.

▪️ The situation in Berdychi and Orlovka is complex, with ongoing battles where neither side has complete control over the populated areas. Most of Orlovka is under Russian Armed Forces’ control, while Berdychi is held by the AFU.

▪️ In the Tonenkoye area, Russian troops persist in their attempts to advance, as evidenced by enemy footage showing kamikaze UAV attacks on armored vehicles transporting troops. Despite damage to several pieces of equipment during the attack, movement in this area indicates the absence of enemy forces in the hedgerows and farms to the west of the village.

rybar

 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Offensive West of Donetsk: Counterattack by the AFU in Krasnohorivka situation as of 19:00, March 18, 2024

Heavy fighting is ongoing to the west of Donetsk in Krasnogorovka, where the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to advance with armored groups and landing forces. Despite initial progress in the southern part of the town, significant success has not yet been achieved.

The enemy initially halted the assault groups in the vicinity of the railway, then proceeded to partially push back Russian forces from the southern sector of the city. Russian Armed Forces are still present at the southeastern outskirts near Geological Street, the forest clearing by the railway track, and warehouse.

Simultaneously, FAB strikes with JDAM are ongoing on the premises of the Krasnogorovsky Refractory Plant, a location the enemy is relying on for city defense. This seems to be a factor hindering the AFU from completely driving out Russian forces from the area.

Given the circumstances, it is possible that the Russian Armed Forces might launch an offensive towards the city from the neighboring Staromikhailovka. However, this poses challenges due to the well-prepared defense by the enemy in the forested regions and tall buildings on the eastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka.

Putin attends concert in Moscow on Crimea annexation anniversary

Crimea – Celebrating the 10th anniversary of reunification with Russia!

Today marks exactly 10 years since the signing of the agreement on Crimea’s accession to the Russian Federation. Thus, on March 18, 2014,, the peninsula officially returned to its native harbor.

What took place was the culmination of the Crimean Spring with significant pro-Russian actions and the subsequent referendum. However, the primary symbol of those events was, of course, the “polite people” who appeared on the streets of the peninsula’s cities at the right time.

At that moment, the military personnel in “pixel” uniforms provided the residents of Crimea with a sense of security and protection, which was crucial during those days. Thanks to the Russian soldiers, the region’s reunification occurred swiftly, peacefully, and without bloodshed.

The event served as a prologue to an even larger and more dramatic Russian Spring. Although this is a completely different story, Crimea’s integration into Russia marked a pivotal moment in the country’s modern history, transforming the phrase “return of Russian lands” from mere words into reality.
 

Ukrainian forces continue to terrorize the civilian population of Belgorod and other border settlements, launching attacks from MLRS. As a result of one such attack, two people were injured in the regional capital and several residential buildings were damaged.

Later in the afternoon, another shelling unfortunately resulted in casualties. In the village of Nikolskoye in the Belgorod district, an enemy shell destroyed a residential building, leading to the immediate death of two individuals. Four more civilians, including a young girl, sustained injuries, and medical professionals are currently fighting for her life.

Fierce fighting in the Belgorod region | Drone attack in Transnistria [18 March 2024]

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Several Russian Armored Assaults As They Regain Full Initiative At The Front

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Ukrainian Army Near Breaking Point | Major Russian Offensive Near

Another Huge Russian Victory Achieved Battle Continue In Belgorod Region

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (18 March 2024)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

▫️In Belgorod direction, Russian units foiled SRG attempts to infiltrate the RF State border near Kozinka (Belgorod reg), and inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 105th and 120th Territorial Defence Brigades, and struck militants of the RVS terrorist formations near Popovka, Lukashovka, Velikaya Pisaryovka (Sumy reg) and Staritsa (Kharkov reg).

The enemy lost up to 150 troops, 2 tanks, 3 MVs, and 1 Czech Vampire MLRS vehicle.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, Zapad Grouping inflicted losses on enemy units near Sinkovka (Kharkov reg).

The AFU lost up to 60 troops, 4 MVs, 1 US M777, 1 D-30 howitzers, and 1 Grad MLRS.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping repulsed 1 assault squad attack of the 46th Airmobile Brigade near Krasnogorovka (DPR)and inflicted losses on the 80th, 93rd Mechanised, 81st Airmobile, 79th Air Assault, and 241st Territorial Defence Brigades near Maksimilyanovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Krasnoye (DPR), and took more advantageous lines.

The enemy lost up to 380 troops, 2 AFV (incl. 1 US M113 APC), and 4 MVs.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping repulsed 7 assault aquad attacks and counterattacks of the 24th, 47th Mechanised, and 78th Air Assault Brigades near Kirovo, Orlovka, Berdychi, Semyonovka, and Tonenkoye (DPR), and inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 59th Motorised Rifle, 31st, 47th, and 53rd Mechanised Brigades near Netaylovo, Umanskoye, Ocheretino and Novobakhmutovka (DPR), and improved the tactical situation along the frontline.

The AFU lost up to 295 troops, 2 IFVs, 3 AFVs, 9 MVs, and 1 UK FH-70 howitzer.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping repulsed 1 assault squad attack of the 58th Motorised Rifle Brigade near Urozhaynoye (DPR), and inflicted losses on the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade near Shakhterskoye, and took more advantageous lines.

The enemy lost more than 130 troops, 1 tank, 2 APCs, and 4 MVs.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Grouping inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 128th Mountain Assault and 28th Mechanised Brigades near Stepnogorsk and Sherbaki (Zaporozhye reg).

The AFU lost more than 55 troops, 2 MVs, 1 D-20 howitzer, and 2 Gvozdika SAUs.

▫️The Russian Grouping’s Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops, and Artillery launched strikes at an AFU and Security Service commander meeting, and engaged troops and hardware in 137 areas.

Air defences shot down 1 Mi-8 helicopter, 143 UAVs, 22 Grad and Vampire, 3 Uragan, and 1 HIMARS MLRS shells.

📊In total, 577 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 15,992 UAVs, 486 SAMs, 15,521 tanks and other AFVs, 1,243 MLRS vehicles, 8,440 guns and mortars, and 19,910 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.

MoD

Special Military Operation Chronicles for March 18, 2024

During the night, the Russian Armed Forces targeted the enemy’s rear regions with kamikaze drones. Ongoing strikes against equipment and personnel bases in the front-line zone are also reported.

In the Slobozhansky area, enemy forces’ activity decreased after the presidential elections. Following an unsuccessful attempt to capture any settlement, the enemy resorted to shelling the Russian border area.

In the Bakhmut area, the enemy continues to hold the outskirts of Krasny, relying on a large fortified area in the southwest. Russian Armed Forces aviation targets artillery and manpower positions, compelling the Ukrainian command to withdraw some guns from the area.

To the north of Avdeevka in the Avdeevsky area, the enemy conducted multiple reconnaissance missions in the Petrovsky region and northwest of Krasnohorivka from Ocheretino and Novokalynove.

Intense battles are ongoing in Krasnogorovka in the Donetsk area, where the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to advance with armored groups and landing forces. Despite initial successes in the southern part of the settlement, significant progress has not been achieved after several weeks of assault.

rybar

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of March 18

◼️APU continues to terrorize the Belgorod region. In the village of Nikolskoye, the enemy struck a private residential building, resulting in the death of four people, all of them relatives. Only one little girl survived the impact; her mother and relatives died.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Donetsk direction

In the Avdeevsky sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to counterattack north of Petrovsky (Stepovoy) . Berdychi and Orlovka have opposing battles. Our fighters advanced in the Tonenky area. In addition, the Russian army is advancing in the southern part of Krasnogorovka , and fighting is taking place.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

Our fighters are advancing south-west of Gulyai-Polye . In the Orekhovsky sector there were oncoming battles in Rabotino and north of Verbovoy .

💥The Russian army punished with fire the Ukrainian DRG that tried to penetrate Russian territory. Our UAV operators attacked the Ukrainian Armed Forces while they were loading onto armored vehicles in Lukashovka, Chernihiv region. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported eight militants killed and wounded.