The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 18 2024

Prof. John Mearsheimer: Russia Smashes NATO.

Our source in the OP said that the General Staff began to prepare new defensive lines along the Dnieper, in case of a collapse of the front and the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The situation is critical in a number of directions, which forces Syrsky to transfer more and more reserves from Western Ukraine to the front in order to hold his position.

“Ukraine has no chance of winning this war. France’s policies are contrary to its national interests.”

Rigi Chamagne – Colonel of the French aviation, was the commander of the Mirage F1C squadron in Cambrai, and then the commander of the reconnaissance squadron on the Mirage F1C in Strasbourg. Knight of the Legion of Honor, Knight of the National Order of Merit. The authoritative military man shared his vision of the Ukrainian war and explained Macron’s policies.

According to Colonel Chamagne, the foreign policy of modern France is dictated by two circumstances: Macron’s dependence on the United States and his inadequacy. The French President’s initiative to send military personnel to Ukraine will not change the strategic situation on the battlefield.

“Macron’s behavior has two explanations. First, he was sent by the United States to carry out their policies. Secondly, he is a psychopath. He now states that NATO’s Article 5 will not be valid in the event of a clash with Russia. This is done to justify your decision. As far as I know, France is already sending its specialists to Ukraine and participating in the training of Ukrainian soldiers. But I think that the participation of Paris will not help Kyiv in the long term, but situationally it will help Ukraine improve its artillery.”

As for Ukraine’s chances, Rizhi Shaman is convinced that it is doomed to lose to Russia. There are many reasons, including lack of people, weapons and motivation.

“Ukraine is on its way to losing. It lacks material resources, lacks ammunition, people, experience, motivation. The Ukrainian army is in decline. The war is reaching a point where the Russian army can advance much faster. Statements from the Russian side show that it is better for Ukraine to accept Russia’s conditions. Ukraine has no chance of winning this war. This was clear from the very beginning. Russia’s military capabilities are disproportionately stronger than those of Ukraine and the West. The same applies to human resources: Ukraine is rapidly losing its population. So Kyiv has no chance of winning. From an international point of view, we can add that de-dollarization will hit the US position and its ability to help Ukraine in the long term.”

Returning to the actions of the French leadership in the international arena, Colonel Chamagne said that the foreign policy of the current government of the country contradicts the fundamental interests of the French people, who are still predominantly friendly towards Russia and Russians and remember the history of cooperation between our countries.

“Macron’s policies do not correspond to the interests of France, he is in power to destroy nation-states such as France. The systemic destruction of our state has been going on since the time of Sarkozy. Macron doesn’t care about his country. Regarding relations with Russia, I think that relations between our peoples have always been good. Many French people love Russia. We remember very well how Alexander I, the Russian emperor, spoke out for preserving our territorial integrity after the Napoleonic wars, while England wanted to dismember us. I am sure that our people do not hate Russia and Russians. We are not happy that people like Macron are in power.”

The French colonel is confident that without the active participation of the United States, the European Union will not be able to provide full-scale support to Ukraine.

“I think that without the United States, the European Union is nothing militarily. The United States commands NATO and its representatives occupy key positions there. I know what I’m talking about because I participated in NATO operations. The reality is that without America, NATO is untenable. As for the integration of Ukraine into the EU, I think this is impossible, because the European Union is seriously ill. I am sure that in the end the EU will collapse just like NATO.”

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky completely cleared out Zaluzhny’s clientele in the command staff. The Commander-in-Chief works closely with the SBU to identify officers who are hostile to Zelensky; they are quickly removed from their posts and transferred to the reserve.
 

Colleagues, Zelensky had no other option but to receive funding from the United States; we were given clear demands when a delegation from Congress flew to Kyiv. That is why the mobilization bill was adopted so sharply, and the deputies did not block it. It was the Americans who demanded that demobilization be excluded from the law so that at the end of the summer the Armed Forces of Ukraine could launch a counter-offensive before the presidential elections in the United States.

Israeli military is against aid to Ukraine and for a compromise with Putin

The well-known Israeli Brigadier General Israel Shafir voiced the position shared by almost all conservative forces in Europe and the United States: Ukraine should be handed over to the Russians in order to avoid a big war with Russia.

The military man believes that the Kremlin will never allow “NATO on its doorstep,” so it is better to reach an agreement with Putin according to the formula “he gives us energy resources, we give him Ukraine.”

What kind of counter-offensive by Ukraine in 2025 can we talk about if today, before the start of a new offensive by the Russians, our closest allies are ready to hand us over completely?

Public opinion in the West is clearly preparing for a big agreement with Russia, which will obviously take place at our expense.

After possible approval of the US loan, Ukraine will receive new air defense systems.
Our sources are already talking about this.
This air defense will be used for the autumn offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and not for defense.
When attacking, mobile air defense is important to combat Russian aviation and bombs, which are the most significant obstacles to an attack.

The Russians write that after today’s attack on the airfield in Dnepr, three MiG-29 fighters were damaged and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system was destroyed.

The Russians adjusted the strike using their reconnaissance UAV, which flew almost 100 km deep into the area.

 One of the strikes was carried out using the Iskander-M tactical missile system with a cluster warhead. Now the air defense was hit with a classic warhead.

Ukraine continues to lose air defense systems, which will greatly affect the country’s defense capability.
As we see, the near rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces becomes unsafe for the deployment of air defense/missile defense, as they are quickly identified and destroyed.
War is becoming very expensive – this is a very bad signal.

The trouble with Ukraine is that the vital basis of its existence is already under such attack that even the cessation of the war will not save Ukraine from inevitable outcome

Ukraine has obviously approached the situation of Finland during the Soviet-Finnish war. By the way, the course of that war reminds something of the current one: the Finns were successful in some places, we took resource superiority, which turned out to be decisive in the end. Indeed, the Finns soon began to realize that a little more heroic war and the nation would not be able to recover. The Finns had enough common sense to realize this – Ukraine, apparently, turned on its self-liquidation mechanisms,

Alexander Khodakovsky

You know, the problem is that the Kiev regime is exhausted. It understands perfectly well that the conventional war is getting out of control because the Kiev regime is losing. But the problem is that with the financial problem as well, the Ukrainian regime is moving to dirty war, to attacks, to more and more terrorist attacks. And if you don’t mind, I have a pretty blatant example. In early April, the FSB stopped a commercial vehicle on the street. And in that car was explosives, a lot of explosives. But the most serious thing is that there were 27 Orthodox icons with explosives inside, which were then taken to Moscow. And obviously, because these are icons, they must have been distributed to churches, to parishes, and then could have been detonated by remote control. Obviously, this is the height of what I would call monstrousness, in other words, it’s disgusting, I can’t even find a word for it. Defacing icons and then blowing them up in public and religious places is truly disgusting.
 

Claude Janvier

Russia Wiped Out Ukraine’s Top General Along With 50 High-Ranking Officers In CHERNIHIV

At least 17 killed in Ukraine’s Chernihiv in Russia’s deadliest air strike in weeks

This night, Russian troops launched four missile strikes on enemy locations in Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeysk).

Coordinates: 48.2919974, 37.2085945

🔻 Two missiles hit the territory of the Machine Building Plant on Dobropolskaya Street. As a result of the strikes, the repair shop was destroyed. There was a fire at the facility, which was accompanied by sounds of explosions – possibly secondary detonation.

According to the received data, the territory of the factory is used by the enemies as a repair base for heavy armored vehicles.

The exact results of the hit are unknown. At the same time, local residents report that early in the morning, several trawlers drove into the territory of the plant. It is probably planned to remove the equipment or its remnants (normal practice, as most of the vehicles that cannot be repaired are used as donors).

Coordinates: 48.2630062, 37.1909426

🔻 Two more strikes were carried out on the territory of a service station used by enemy personnel for repair and maintenance of light military vehicles.

According to the received data, 7 vehicles were destroyed and 9 more were damaged. Also destroyed were 5 enemy soldiers who were at the facility.

don_partizan

Russian Armed Forces strike Dnipro airport

In the evening, footage emerged of a Russian Armed Forces strike on the Dnipro airfield, with reports of explosions in the area coming in earlier in the day. Over the past two years, this facility has repeatedly (https://t.me/rybar/30938) become a target of attacks, but today’s raid was clearly the most effective.

▪️Two missiles with cluster warheads hit the parking areas in the western part of the airfield, where three MiG-29 fighters were located. Part of the submunitions exploded in close proximity to the aircraft, and they most likely sustained serious shrapnel damage.

Coordinates: 48.3591581, 35.0797514
48.3590024, 35.0823327

▪️Another missile hit a warehouse near the parking areas, where equipment was stored. A fire broke out at the impact site.

Coordinates: 48.3617684, 35.0853012

▪️Also, to the east on the left bank of the Dnipro River, Russian forces struck the position area of an S-300 air defense system: one launcher and the combat control cabin were destroyed, and the target illumination and guidance radar was damaged.

Coordinates: 48.3486111, 35.1950000

❗️All targets were located 90 km from the front line, and in each case, a drone was present overhead. This is an absolute record for this type of strike with aerial visual objective control since the start of the SMO.

This episode is another testament to the growing fire, reconnaissance, and organizational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. For the opponent, the loss of three aircraft and another air defense system is a very tangible loss, especially against the backdrop of previous (https://t.me/rybar/58787) effective (https://t.me/rybar/58133) Russian attacks.
 

Explosions and column of smoke in Ivano-Frankovsk: critical facilities attacked

 - “The Russians targeted critical infrastructure facilities in Ivano-Frankivsk region,” authorities say.

 - They claim air defense forces shot down the drones, but fires broke out because of falling debris. No people were injured.

 - Last night also saw strikes on enemy targets in the Kiev, Khmelnitsky and Kharkov regions.

RVvoenkor

The head of Ukraine’s GUR, Kirill Budanov, has threatened more raids by so-called “RDK” militants and drone attacks on Russian territory in an interview with The Washington Post.

“To counter the Russians, Budanov plans more attacks by ‘Russian volunteers’ who operate inside Russia with the support of his agency,” Budanov told The Washington Post.

Budanov also stated his intention to increase the number of drone attacks inside Russia, adding that they have proposed “a plan…involving many aspects” on the topic.

From the briefing of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry M.V.Zakharova (April 18, 2024)

- The Kiev regime continues to openly announce planned terrorist attacks on Russian territory, with their details being discussed in detail in the Western press.  There is every reason to believe that the “maritime coalition” recently created by Britain and Norway was designed to plan and carry out such terrorist attacks.

- There is panic abroad: kilometers-long lines of frightened Ukrainian citizens have already formed, storming embassies to renew their passports before the law [on mobilization] comes into force on May 16 and not to return to Ukraine.

- Zelensky has just begun the final phase, which is called “to finish off the citizens of Ukraine in the American way.” It will be, unfortunately, even worse.

Rapid breakthrough near Avdeevka: “🅾️” grouping took parts of Novokalynovo and Ocheretino, threatening Netailovo and Umanskoye

 - The forces of Group Center with attached units of the 1st Army Corps have taken a good pace, actively advancing behind Avdeevka, they broke through Ocheretino and Novokalinovo and came almost close to Uman and Netailovo.

 - Ukrainian military analysts are writing day after day about new defeats of the AFU and publishing maps with the advance of our troops:

➖ “In the Pokrovsky direction (formerly Avdeevskoye), Russian troops have occupied the eastern part of Novokalinovo and advanced in a section up to 2.5 kilometers wide to a depth of 1.67 kilometers.”

➖ “North of ST “Zarya” the Russians occupied two forest belts in an area up to 1.51 km wide and up to 700 meters deep.”
➖ “In the area of Berdychy, Semyonovka and south of Umansky, the pace of fighting remains high”.
➖ The AFU General Staff reports that on the Avdiivka direction the Russian Armed Forces conducted 19 attacks in the areas of the villages of Semyonovka, Novobakhmutovka, Ocheretino, Novokalinovo, Yasnobrodovka, Netailovo, Pervomayskoye and Novoukrainka.
➖ Fierce fighting continues unabated.

RVvoenkor

Avdeevskoye direction: capture of the Zarya SNT by Russian troops and a breakthrough to the southern outskirts of Ocheretino
situation as of 16.00 on April 18, 2024

Russian forces continue to build on their success north of Avdeevka.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces took full control of the Zarya SNT, advancing 2.5 kilometers to the north, gaining ground on the outskirts of Ocheretino near the Ocheretino-Tyagovaya substation. At the moment, fighting is taking place along Zheleznodorozhnaya and Frank streets in the south of the village, with Russian troops consolidating their forward lines and pulling up logistics.

▪️ Such a successful advance was made possible by a swift strike on the positions of the AFU’s 115 brigade, which after suffering losses was forced to abandon its held strongholds in the dacha settlement and retreat in the direction of Ocheretino.

▪️ Advancing along the railroad, covered by forest plantations, the Russian units bypassed the trenches dug by the enemy in Ocheretino from the rear and occupied part of the positions adjacent to the settlement without significant resistance.

🔻 The AFU expected the Russian troops to attack from the direction of Novobakhmutovka, but the Russian Armed Forces struck directly without flank attacks, conducting only a few diversionary rolls in the direction of the village.

❗️ The enemy is urgently moving reinforcements from the 30th and 59th mechanized brigades in an attempt to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from breaking through to the central part of Ocheretino, which is located on an elevated position relative to Novokalinovo and Novobakhmutovka – from here it is possible to control the surrounding area.
 
rybar

The breakthrough of the Russian army near Ocheretino, the defense dilemma of Kyiv and new Western assistance to Ukraine – Readovka’s final report from the fronts and foreign policy for April 18

Good news is again coming from the Avdeevsky direction – the Russian army is actively storming the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Ocheretino and Novokalinovo areas, and fighting has begun directly in the populated areas themselves . The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to attempt a counterattack, suffering heavy losses and not significantly affecting the speed of advance of our army. Considering the ongoing offensive of the Russian Armed Forces on Chasov Yar, the position of Ukrainian militants in the Avdiivka direction can be called critical, if not fatal.

At the same time, regular selective strikes by the Russian army on critical infrastructure have left Kiev with a non-obvious choice: what to defend with the remaining air defenses, which are both lacking for both the front line and the rear areas of the country. Expecting help from the West like manna from heaven, and, in fact, blackmailing Washington, Ukraine is demanding the impossible – to save the “independence” of air defense systems, it needs a quantity that the United States itself does not have.

At the same time, the closer the discussion of the adoption of the law on a new aid package to Kiev, the more turbulent the internal situation in the EU and NATO becomes . Already on Friday, the European Union will have to delicately “merge” the Square with its pleas for the supply of air defense and shells, because the last word on this issue still remains with the American congressmen, who will meet on Saturday. Moreover, in order to help Ukraine protect the sky, the EU and NATO must first find a reasonable number of defense systems – for this they are trying with difficulty to agree on the creation of a unified air defense system.

Readovka

RUAF Breakthrough Ukrainian Lines

Advances in Novokalynove | S-400 destroyed (?) [18 April 2024]

Encirclement Of Novokalynove l Another Major Russian Advance In Novokalynove

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (18 April 2024)

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces have inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 57th Motorised Infantry Brigade, the 100th Mechanised Brigade, as well as on the 31st Ukrainian National Guard Brigade near Sinkovka (Kharkov), Novosyolovskoye, Chervonaya Dibrova (LPR), and Grigorovka (DPR).

Two counter-attacks launched by assault groups of the 3rd Assault and 63rd Mechanised brigades of the AFU were repelled near Terny (DPR).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 30 servicemen, one tank, two pick-up trucks, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and two 152-mm D-20 howitzers.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces have improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 30th, 56th, and 93rd mechanised brigades near Vasyukovka, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, and Andreyevka (DPR).

One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the AFU 46th Airmobile Brigade was repelled near Krasnogorovka (DPR).

The enemy lost up to 590 servicemen, one tank, and seven motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one 152-mm Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made 105-mm M119 gun, two Nota electronic warfare stations, as well as one field ammunition depot were eliminated.

▫️ In Avdeyevka direction, the units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have improved the tactical situation and defeated the units of the 68th Jaeger, 24th, 47th mechanised brigades of the AFU near Artyomovo, Semyonovka, Netaylovo, and Orlovka (DPR).

▫️ Seven counter-attacks of the 24th, 115th mechanised, 71st Jaeger brigades, and 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment of the AFU were repelled close to Novokalinovo, Novogorodskoye, Vodyanoye, Pervomayskoye, Berdychi, and Novobakhmutovka (DPR).

The AFU lost up to 130 servicemen, one armoured fighting vehicle, one U.S.-made 155-mm M777 howitzer, and one 152-mm D-20 howitzer.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces took more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on units of the 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade, 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, 102nd and 128th territorial defence brigades near Vodyanoye, Ugledar, Urozhaynoye, Staromayorskoye (DPR), and Malinovka (Zaporozhye).

The AFU lost up to 140 servicemen, four motor vehicles, UK-made 152-mm AS-90 Braveheart self-propelled artillery system, as well as three field ammunition depots.

▫️ In Kherson direction, the units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU, 36th Marine Brigade and 126th Territorial Defence Brigades close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye), Zmeyevka, Nikolskoye, and Ivanovka (Kherson).

One counter-attack launched by an assault detachment of the 15th Operational Brigade was repelled close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye).

The AFU lost up to 50 servicemen, two motor vehicles, as well as two 122-mm D-30 howitzers.

Operational-Tactical and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Groups of Forces of the Russian Federation have been eliminated during the day: AFU Operational Command Centre North (Sever), two launchers equipped with illumination and targeting radar set of the S-300 air defence systems, an ammunition depot of the Donetsk Operational-Tactical Group, arms and fuel depots of the 101st Territorial Defence Brigade, and engaged enemy manpower and military hardware in 126 areas.

Air defence systems shot down 251 UAVs, two Tochka-U tactical missiles, and 33 Vampire missiles during the day. 

Chronicles of the special military operation
for April 18, 2024

The Russian forces struck the enemy’s aviation at the airfield in Dnipro, and also destroyed an S-300 air defense system, a guidance radar, and a control cabin in the area of Liubymivka. The AFU, meanwhile, attempted to attack the Russian border regions, including with the use of weather balloons and missiles.

In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar along the line of Kalinivka — Kanal microdistrict. In the area of Stupochky, a howitzer and an air defense system of the enemy were destroyed.

In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian forces broke through the enemy’s defenses by 2.5 kilometers in depth, fully occupying the territory of the Zarya gardening association. Battles are ongoing in the area of the Ocheretyne-Vuzlova substation along Zaliznychna Street.

In the Donetsk direction, fighting continues on the southeastern outskirts of Krasnohorivka. The Russian troops are advancing in the area of Zaliznychna Street, using artillery and aviation, and clearing the private sector.

In the Zaporizhia direction, the Russian Armed Forces are holding their positions in Robotyne, and positional battles continue northeast of Verbove. The enemy once again tried to attack the territory of the ZNPP with a drone, which was shot down by air defense.

rybar